US hurricane shocks, Asian toluene arbitrage activity tends to be active

In late August, the United States began to enter the hurricane season, under the impact of the defense, Harvey to bring the market a great destructive effect, resulting in the United States nearly a quarter of the refining capacity was forced off the assembly line, and then push Gasoline prices to two-year high, but also far away in the Pacific Asian market excited a lot.

From the charts, we can clearly see that before and after the end of August, in the United States Hurricane Harvey raging, the international toluene price level there is a clear upward, the following we have to look specifically at the international flow of toluene.

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In the case of
From the arbitrage situation inside and outside the toluene disk, after entering August, arbitrage window opening degree in fact there is a gradual decline in the state, but thanks to the US hurricane brought about by the follow-up effect, August so far inside and outside the disk arbitrage window as a whole The trend of recovery, toluene inside and outside the disk arbitrage window opening trend of the gradual amplification of the situation, but because China in the second quarter of the basic environmental constraints in the shrinking stage of demand, which makes the spread of the internal and external disk is more limited The

However, from the US-Asian arbitrage activity, we can see that the long-term closure of the Asian and American arbitrage window was opened in late August, the spread was reached around $ 120, although with Harvey in the past, the two places spread Narrowed, but because of the new US Hurricane Alma already formed, the market arbitrage window thus maintained a high degree of opening.

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In summary, due to the US hurricane invasion, resulting in the global price of toluene have been greatly improved, and caused a long-term closure of the Asian-American arbitrage window opened, which largely caused the market for September The domestic toluene imports may be expected to drop, and thus led to the domestic demand for toluene has not yet arrived in the occasion, they began to push the speculation and higher.

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Internal and external problems, the domestic methyl ethyl ketone upside down narrowed

The recent domestic butanone market receding point, East China breakthrough in 9,000 yuan / ton after the achievements, in the production enterprises under the compromise under the dark down. Throughout the domestic butanone production capacity, there are still 245,000 tons / year butanone device parking, follow-up Lanzhou Petrochemical 30,000 tons / year butanone device will be parking, estimated monthly parking capacity will reach 275,000 tons / year. But the market outlook crisis also exists, Taizhou Petrochemical 80,000 tons / year butanone plant and Hebei Zhongjie 30,000 tons / year butanone device is expected to restart in October, Hunan Chemical Co., Ltd. in the export orders of sec-butyl ester after the completion of October Operating rate is expected to improve. In addition, the parking lot of Kazakhstan in September 40,000 tons / year butanone device will also be restarted in October, so in the market outlook is expected under the recent, buttone talk about loosening.

At present, the domestic butanone spot prices are high, the export is basically difficult to profit, but because the higher profits of production enterprises, the factory does not mind the export price upside down. Prior to August a large number of imported from China, butanone Europe and the United States, with Shell 90,000 tons / year ketone device restart, follow the basic to meet the supply. Although China has arbitrage space for Europe, but it is difficult to take the amount.

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Downstream industry, there are some downstream costs to pass the weak, especially the existence of alternative downstream, and more to replace the raw materials, this part of the demand less limited impact on the butanone. September with Zhejiang and Shandong environmental inspection group evacuation, terminal demand has recovered, but due to the high price of methyl ethyl ketone, the downstream stocking atmosphere, and more on-demand procurement.

On the whole, under the internal and external problems, the domestic methyl ethyl ketone upside down, and reverse down. Traders are mostly reluctant to stock under the high, although the production enterprises and large dealers have a very price, but the ideal and reality gradually drifting away. The final price to the price, the market dominated the reversal.

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Chemical products prices generally rose, butanol is not far behind

The recent butanol butanol butyl market downstream market preference, some downstream just need to be stable, the market mentality improved, cheap and hard to find. But the majority of the downstream just need to replenish the main.

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Shandong recently in the downstream market sentiment driven by the market, butanol market shipments improved, a few low prices disappear, the market mentality has improved, a few manufacturers prices back up, most manufacturers today prices not yet clear.

Jiangsu port n-butanol spot is too small, n-butanol factory recently partial price adjustment intention, the market offer rose again, the recent market waiting to wait and see mainly to discuss less than normal. Jiangsu factory reference price from 7850-7900 yuan / ton.
Upstream propylene

The recent propylene market continued high and stable, Shandong propylene market mainstream turnover 8000-8050 yuan / ton. Part of the refinery plant to drive, but the individual factory early short stop, the supply side no significant change. Market long and short factors intertwined, sideways mainly.

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international market

Middle East market last week, butanol prices fell, but the supply of n-butanol in Asia is not much, and affected by the US hurricane, the US market to reduce the supply of late, most of the Asian manufacturers steady state of mind, no significant changes in market prices. To close on Thursday, China Jiangsu butanol market closing price to 7850-7900 yuan / ton, converted import duty-free reference price to 1020 US dollars / ton CFR China.

Affected by the US hurricane, the global supply of acrylic compounds significantly reduced, the domestic acrylic plant export enthusiasm increased significantly, the recent butyl acrylate start load is still a substantial increase in the expected demand for n-butanol have some support. It is expected that the butanol will be slightly raised in the short term.

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