recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced by the end of December 16th when Zhou Yuan recorded inventories increased 2 million 256 thousand barrels, is expected to reduce 2 million 515 thousand barrels, the former value decreased by 2 million 563 thousand barrels. EIA data released before the two beautiful cloth oil fell short; after the data release, the oil, oil cloth fluctuated.

In December 22nd, Sinopec Southern China Guangzhou Petrochemical Company solvent xylene: the implementation of 5450 yuan / ton, Maoming petrochemical price 5300 yuan / ton; heterogeneous xylene: Guangzhou petrochemical, Zhanjiang Dongxing are the implementation of 5450 yuan / ton. The central branch of Sinopec Changling refinery, xylene: Wuhan petrochemical, China Petrochemical 4700 yuan / ton, the market is weak, supply of goods is not much, the general sales. North China sales company Sinopec Qingdao refinery, Tianjin: xylene ethylene and Shijiazhuang refinery implementation of 4700 yuan / ton. Operation of Liaotong chemical aromatics plant smooth, solvent and non-standard xylene heterogeneous execution price 5380 yuan / ton, inventory, sales, xylene market price stability. Qingdao Lidong aromatics plant running smoothly, toluene price implementation of 5950 yuan / ton, mainly for personal use, a small amount of export. Panjin Hefeng Chemical Trading Co., xylene market price of 5580 yuan / ton, price stability.

recently, n-propanol narrow market stability, the current domestic market mainstream n-propanol offer price at 10100 yuan / ton, compared to roughly stable.

At present, n-propanol output is large, mainly Nanjing plant products, mainly the production of enterprise contract users, for n-Propyl Acetate Production of other raw materials, less consumption, as the solvent effect, there is no large-scale development; as a high dependence on imports of products.

In December 22nd, Shanghai fangye Chemical Co., l-propanol foreign price 10600 yuan / ton (Taiwan Dalian original), real simple negotiations. Shanghai Crystal Chemical Co. Ltd. Shanghai l-propanol foreign price 10000 yuan / ton (barrels), out of stock is limited, the real single talks. Shandong Feng bin Chemical Co., n-propanol offer 9500 yuan / ton (apron), limited stock, real simple talks. The normal operation of Nanjing Rongxin chemical 60 thousand tons / year of n-propanol device, factory acceptance today offer 9500 yuan / ton (apron), mainly for personal use, a small amount of export. Shanghai Demao chemical l-propanol foreign price 10000 yuan / ton, are not available, the real single talks. Zhejiang sunrise Chemical Co., n-propanol foreign price 9800 yuan / ton (bottled / Taiwan), the current inventory is limited, the real single talks. Shanghai Yifeng chemical l-propanol foreign price 11300 yuan / ton (barrels), limited inventory, real simple talks.

At present, the upstream product of ethylene price stability, n-propanol market trading flat, discuss the general atmosphere. The recent domestic propanol market running smoothly, a narrow range of fluctuation. The latter concern the cost of raw materials supply situation and face.

[hot] Gade chemical network daily recently, methanol 1705 contracts from 2500 yuan / ton rose to 3011 yuan / ton, only 11 trading days, the cumulative increase of 20.44%. But methanol in high short stay 2 days after this Monday to the daily limit on the form of adjustment. Based on the analysis of the market change radically from the interpretation of the past, and in the short-term focus and operation strategy of several levels.

The main reasons of the early rapid rise in methanol:

Is a part of the device maintenance and environmental accident factors make Hebei, the operating rate of decline, while port stocks continued to decline, the spot price and the port area caused by methanol price hikes, and some areas prices rose significantly accelerated period.

Two is the international methanol prices continued to rise, imports are low profit.

The three is the traditional demand and emerging needs to start the overall stability, the overall stable downstream demand.

At the beginning of the week methanol appeared daily limit, the main factors are the following:

The relevant research institutions found that nearly a year, the dollar index and the international oil price deviation, in negative correlation over the past few years, both reached more than 90%, while in the negative correlation between the two is only about 40% this year.

Sui Xiaoying said that since the end of last year the United States dollars into the rate hike cycle, to maintain the overall strength, but from the absolute value of the dollar index, the uplink rate is not large, because of the increase in interest rates before the dollar index has been at a high level, while crude oil at the beginning of this year dropped to a low of $26, due to the high cost of production is out of the market, improve the oil supply and demand, oil prices bottomed out, under this background, the crude oil from between the dollar index and negative correlation trend.
Soochow Futures Institute Jiang Xingchun believes that the economic recovery is further enhanced, oil demand and improve supply contraction, oil price shocks on the behavior of the main. International oil prices mainly reflects the consumption and economic growth, the dollar index also indirectly reflects the strength of economic growth in the United States, in addition to the United States as an important global crude oil consumer, economic consumption, oil prices tend to rise or rebound. Currently, the commodity and the U.S. dollar to be consistent, the strong dollar to boost oil prices too high, expected prices relatively strong. If the production implementation in place, because the Fed rate hike estimated 2017 relatively moderate, the dollar index rose limited space, down more than 105 points in probability.

In the long term will suppress prices

The long run, Sui Xiaoying believes that to maintain a strong dollar on oil prices will still suppress the formation, but in the short term, prices will be more based on fundamentals, but no matter from the perspective of the dollar or from the crude oil supply and demand point of view, do not support oil prices continue to significantly stronger in the short term, but the long-term focus on the shift period. If the reduction of the effective implementation of the oil market, it is only in the conversion stage of excess supply to balance, it does not support the strong oil prices rise, in contrast, in the United States economy is relatively strong and the interest rate cycle, the dollar will remain strong.

In addition, Baocheng Futures Institute assistant director of financial Cheng Xiaoyong said that the Fed rate hike under the background of OPEC and non OPEC joint production to the current international crude oil supply surplus has a significant role in mitigation. EIA data show that in 2016 global crude oil surplus of about 500 thousand barrels a day, so if the production agreement can be executed, so to relieve excess pressure, to help the global crude oil inventories, 2017 crude oil prices significantly ease the downward pressure. However, with oil prices steady at $50 / barrel, U.S. shale oil production has gradually picked up, combined with Trump’s energy independence strategy, the United States will relieve fossil energy production restrictions, which means that OPEC and OPEC share of non joint production will be the US shale oil substitute, so the international oil price in 2017 is not optimistic.

Cheng Xiaoyong said, in the current strength of the dollar, the international oil price volatility may be steady, follow-up implementation of crude oil production, not to mention the United States shale oil production increases the crude oil prices greatly reduced. If the production are implemented, so we should pay attention to the speed of rebound in inflation and interest rates rise, if interest rates rise slowly will lead to stagflation possibility, oil prices may be stronger than the dollar.