since October this year, the dollar index in international oil prices and a rare positive correlation. Generally, the international oil price in dollars, both the history shows negative correlation.

Although the dollar index has set a new high of 14 years, but the industry is expected, due to the global economic recovery in demand for crude oil could improve the stimulation, gradually return to fundamentals, if producers joint production are effectively implemented, the future overcapacity will be eased, prompted a further rise in oil prices.

The dollar, crude oil dropped significantly negative correlation

Data show that as of December 20th, the Chicago (CME Group), the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX trading in February crude oil futures are the most active to close at $53.51 a barrel, the season has risen by more than 8%. Some analysts pointed out that the crude oil market will be affected by macroeconomic events and the dollar index, but the market is mainly in accordance with their fundamental guidelines, this year, crude oil prices by a greater impact on the supply side.

The current dollar interest rate cycle has entered a strong hard to stop. Founder medium-term researcher Sui Xiaoying said that the Fed rate hike under the background of global liquidity tightening, to maintain a strong dollar, dollar denominated crude oil prices will also be long suppressed, in addition, although the OPEC and non OPEC members agree on the next cut, which will accelerate the market rebalancing process, but whether the countries committed to implement production is still in doubt, more importantly, the relationship between supply and demand the improvement brought about by the rebound in oil prices will trigger the return of North American shale oil, which will in turn put pressure on oil prices. Overall, next year the crude oil market oversupply situation will be further repair, oil prices will continue to run the central move, but return to the North American shale oil will restrict upside height.

Domestic manufacturers of trichloroethylene this week offer basic last week to maintain the price, the current mainstream domestic manufacturers of trichloroethylene offer in 4700-5000 yuan / ton, the market of the favorable factors, price volatility will remain stable. At present, the market started about 5 TCE device%, the cash supply basically meet the market demand, manufacturers enthusiasm is not high, stocks can still be.

Calcium carbide raw material market is insufficient to support the upstream raw material prices are down 0.11%; the recent Shandong part of chlorine business resumption, shipment of chlor alkali market better, rising market prices rose in chlor alkali, in 38.47%, the cost of supporting the steady trichloroethylene. The downstream R134a refrigerant market steady, the price remained at 20050 yuan / ton, this week R134a market will remain stable, recently the price of the domestic market is still showing a weak refrigerant R134a. The transaction environment continues to slump, the export market is still very steady light. Traders more wait-and-see attitude, at present no stocking wishes. Factory delivery, inventory pressure is acceptable, some manufacturers offer 19500-20500 yuan / ton.

Long run trichloroethylene weak market enterprises operating rate, low inventories are low, lack of downstream demand for power enterprises to maintain a low profit operation of trichloroethylene.

The whole market is weak, short-term R134a market is expected to weaken greatly, limited demand for trichloroethylene.

Daily P: Enterprise Limited production price firmness, prices rose a larger space. The sky and other eight domestic enterprises have to go to the P inventory capacity to reach a consensus, 2017 eight companies were intended to cut 20~35%, the yield will be controlled at 1234 tons in . Due to the loss of industry in general, limiting the production of phosphate fertilizer enterprises combined with a firm attitude, some companies have begun a substantial production, if calculated in accordance with the limited production of 25%, next year fertilizer supply will be reduced by 400~500 million tons. Phosphate fertilizer production and high pollution, the supply side reform of the industry is also worth looking forward to. The demand side next year phosphate 100 yuan / ton tariff will be canceled or will enhance the domestic fertilizer competitiveness, boosting export growth, while India and India increased fertilizer inventory reduction RS purchasing power, India imports next year is expected to improve, is expected next year during the spring fertilizer will there is a huge gap between supply and demand, we believe that the late fertilizer prices up more space than expected. Higher probability.

Urea: next year during the spring and the gap between supply and demand will be more than 5 million tons. At present, large granule urea price of about 1515 yuan / ton , is at the bottom of this year prices have risen more than 30%, but by the coal prices and the impact of rising transportation costs, low cost urea enterprises currently only have the space furnace, coal water slurry and other leading technology can achieve profitability, profitability of the number of enterprises accounted for about 20%. Due to high production costs and environmental factors,

according to the statistics of Nitrogen Fertilizer Association, China’s urea enterprises operating rate of less than 50%. By the northern cold weather and production enterprises will be converting to other products, short-term is difficult to pick up the operating rate of urea. During the spring of next year is the season with a fertilizer, the requirement of agricultural urea accounted for roughly 60% of the annual amount of urea, the corresponding demand of about 2500 million tons, considering the industrial demand for urea and exports, is expected during the spring and the gap between supply and demand will be more than 5 million tons of urea.

this week domestic adipic acid market prices continue to rise, the average spot price of adipic acid factory over the weekend in the 10714.29 yuan / ton, the average spot price of adipic acid factory weekend at around 11085.71 yuan / ton, this week rose to 3.47%, the same price than last year Rose 98.67%.

Analysis and review

Domestic products: adipic acid market price rose sharply this week, manufacturers supply, traders also supply tight, the active atmosphere of negotiations, the upstream petrochemical benzene prices continue to increase 200 yuan / ton, adipic acid manufacturers continuous increase spot price, the market turnover continued to focus on the shift this week, the market turnover slightly stalemate, high turnover of the poor. As of now, the Shandong market supply reference listing price of 11800 yuan / ton, Tangshan supply market reference price of 11000 yuan / ton, Liaoyang supply market reference listing price 11900 yuan / ton. The overall domestic mainstream manufacturers of adipic acid unit runs smoothly, equipment operating rate remained at 8-9%, manufacturers inventory reasonable.

anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly this week, the weekend factory price of 6000 yuan / ton, the weekend price rose to 6033.33 yuan / ton, or 0.56%. Manufacturers offer a slight adjustment, the current prices rose 0.17%.

quotations analysis

Products: domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly. The nationwide price in 5600-6200 yuan / ton, is currently in Shandong to offer 5800-6400 yuan / ton, in the region to the mainstream price 6100-6400 yuan / ton; East China mainstream offer 5600-6300 yuan / ton factory, Zhejiang area to the price of 5700-6000 yuan / ton; Central China offer range 5700-6400 yuan / ton factory, Inner Mongolia area offer 5300-5500 yuan / ton. Device, Shandong Yantai Zhongrui planned production, launched in mid December.

Industrial chain: South China area price fluorite narrow market rise, logistics and transport costs increase, resulting in the rising cost of raw materials, thus increasing the cost of space downstream of hydrofluoric acid. This week the domestic manufacturers of sulfuric acid were mixed, the overall average price of domestic acid remained stable, sulfuric acid enterprises this week, 318 yuan / ton, the price fell by 12.27% over last year. The operation of the domestic manufacturers of sulfuric acid unit normal this week, the market supply is relatively abundant, downstream to buy gas shortage, the market turnover is limited. The domestic market is downstream of R22 refrigerant due to the recent domestic quota tightening, the price of a certain increase, but less demand for raw materials, which leads to depression as the main raw material of fluorine chemical products in the market downturn.

Market forecast

At present, hydrofluoric acid market running smoothly, the raw material market is relatively stable, the transportation costs of raw materials increased, hydrofluoric acid of short-term market or small adjustments, but the current market situation of hydrofluoric acid market will remain vulnerable to run.