1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 756 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 826 yuan/ton on December 27th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 9.25% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated and increased this month. In the first half of December, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw a slight pullback after an increase in prices. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, while downstream and some distributors make up for the price. International demand remains sluggish, and there is no positive trend on the demand side. In the second half of December, the bidding price of domestic ammonium sulfate increased. Foreign orders have been followed up in small quantities, downstream demand is still acceptable, and market trading is good. Dealers are actively restocking and have a resistance towards high prices. As of December 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 740 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 850-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from October 2, 2023 to December 18, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle fluctuates. There was a significant increase in December, with the largest increase being 3.86% in the week ending December 18th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst from Business Society believes that the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate is relatively strong. At present, there is an increase in market inquiries and an improvement in demand. Downstream and distributors are actively acquiring goods. It is expected that the price trend of ammonium sulfate will be dominant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot market price of gold on December 26, 2023 was 480.64 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.30% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (December 1), which was 474.48 yuan/gram.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of silver in the market on December 25, 2023 was 6060 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.83% compared to the average price of 6173 yuan/kg in the silver market at the beginning of this month (December 1).

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after reaching a new decade high in the early stage. Under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes we anticipated earlier, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices. It is reported that in the third quarter of 2023, central banks and other institutions of various countries increased their holdings of gold by 337.1 tons, an increase of 93% compared to the previous quarter.

The recent release of US GDP and inflation data in the third quarter has strengthened the possibility of aggressive interest rate cuts when the cooling level is deeper than expected. The Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 has increased, which is beneficial for precious metal prices. In the short term, it is expected that precious metals will operate stronger.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained strong and upward. As of December 25th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15620 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to the previous week. In recent times, silicon metal production has decreased and silicon factories have started to rise strongly. Driven by the demand for essential purchases, spot prices have overall risen.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 25th is as follows:

The price range for # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15600-15700 yuan/ton, with an average of 15650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100-16300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16200 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of December 21st, the number of furnaces opened this week was 356, a decrease of 8 compared to last week, a decrease of 4 in Yunnan, and a decrease of 3 in Sichuan. The operating rate in the southwest region continues to decline, and silicon factories are reducing production and reluctant to sell, leading to a high sentiment of price support. Due to weather and environmental factors, many areas in the northern region have experienced production restrictions.

In terms of inventory:

As of December 22, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 363000 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 125000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. The social delivery warehouse was 238000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which decreased by 7000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55000-65000 yuan/ton. The devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and the newly added production capacity has been gradually released, achieving mass production and a significant increase in domestic supply. Downstream installation demand is decreasing, and the demand increment in the silicon material market is insufficient in the near future. Prices may still seek downward space in the upstream and downstream game.

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13920 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased during the week, but the market situation is improving. Aluminum alloy factories are actively purchasing, and inquiries and orders are increasing.

Future Market Forecast

This week, silicon factories continue to reduce production, with seasonal cuts in production in the southwest. Xinjiang silicon factories have reduced production due to environmental protection, leading to increased uncertainty in the supply side. At the same time, downstream demand remains for essential procurement, and it is expected that silicon prices will slightly increase in the short term.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On December 22nd, the average sulfur price in East China was 1090.00 yuan/ton, a 1.51% decrease from the previous working day’s price of 1106.67 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The sulfur market in East China is experiencing a downward trend, with sulfur refinery units operating normally and market supply stable. The demand for terminal winter storage is slowing down, and downstream procurement is stabilizing. Market trading is mainly based on demand, while refineries are actively shipping. Some companies have poor shipments, and their prices have been lowered based on their own inventory situation.

Market forecast: The supply side follows the market, downstream demand remains stable, and the market lacks effective positive support. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and fluctuate narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 21st, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.26% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has experienced a downward trend within a certain range, with mainstream quotes from enterprises ranging from 3000 to 3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market has stabilized, while the upstream methanol market has risen narrowly, with increased cost support. Downstream inquiries and purchases are generally active, with transactions mainly based on demand. In addition, due to weather conditions in some regions, holders are offering discounts to ship, weakening the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, downstream buying is in high demand, and market transactions are still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.