In October, the focus of the domestic MIBK market declined. According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quoted 17633 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 16400 yuan/ton on October 31st. The cumulative decline in October was 7%,

In October, the MIBK market went down, and the mainstream negotiated prices in East China fell to 16200-16400 yuan/ton. The market had prices but no market, and the trading situation was not optimistic. There were few new orders in the market, and large factories also reduced their volume. Traders lacked confidence in the short-term market and offered lower prices.

The cost side is bearish. In October, the domestic acetone market fell more or less, and after the holiday, port inventory rose to 16000 tons, causing a rapid decline in the market. However, as factories digested the short-term replenishment benefits and port inventory decreased, Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant temporarily shut down, and the market rebounded. However, ultimately, demand was limited and the push for growth was weak. In the latter half of the year, the market fell again.

From a terminal perspective, the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up, while the cautious operation of large enterprises entering the market is mostly targeted contracts, and the industrial chain lacks positive support.

From the perspective of Business Society, the domestic production of MIBK in October was 6800 tons, an increase compared to the previous month, and the operating rate has improved. Recently, the supply side is still sufficient, but demand is gradually turning into the off-season. The operating rate of downstream anti-aging agents is declining, and there is less consumption of raw materials. MIBK traders have increased their intention to ship. Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term MIBK market will continue to decline, and the market is expected to continue to bottom out in November. Focus on the support from the raw material end.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent trend of natural rubber has been fluctuating and declining. The spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 12890 yuan/ton on October 31, and around 13150 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 1.98%.

Influencing factors:

1. Rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas has eased, and port inventory continues to decline

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production area is affected by more periodic rainfall. Rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas has slightly eased, and the overall production of raw materials is hindered; The rainfall in Hainan production area has eased, and the glue production is gradually normal; The weather in the Yunnan production area is normal, and the production of raw materials is normal. Recently, the production of raw materials has gradually recovered, and the cost support for natural rubber is limited. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory and inventory continues to decline, which has a certain boosting effect on the Tianjiao market.

2. Tire companies have seen a slight decline in operating rates

On the demand side, the overall operating rate of rubber tire enterprises has slightly increased; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and overall shipments are good. Currently, most enterprises still have a shortage of snow tires. As enterprises gradually schedule production, the shortage phenomenon will be alleviated; The operating rate of all steel tires has remained basically stable, prices have been stable, and production has been scheduled. Recently, inventory has increased, and currently the main focus is on destocking.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding the future market, the recent rainfall in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has eased, and the output of raw materials continues to rise, and the purchase price may decline; At present, the export situation of tire enterprises is good, and there is a certain demand and positive support for the natural rubber market in the short term; In addition, with the recent decline in futures trading, the price of natural rubber is weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan Province has slightly decreased this week. On October 29th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7875 yuan/ton on October 21st, a decrease of 1.27%.

This week, the cryolite market has been consolidating and operating, with manufacturers’ quotations stabilizing slightly. The price of upstream products has decreased, the cost support for cryolite has weakened, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. There is resistance towards high priced cryolite, and manufacturers have low sales. The market trading atmosphere is light, and both costs and downstream are negatively affected. In order to promote shipment, cryolite manufacturers have lowered their quotations. As of October 29th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200 and 8800 yuan/ton, with a range price reduction of 200 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is weak and downward, with an average market price of 3762.50 yuan/ton on October 29, a decrease of 0.50% compared to the price of 3781.25 yuan/ton on October 21. The upstream raw ore mining is tight, fluorite supply is tight, the demand side refrigerant market is stabilizing, downstream support is limited, manufacturers’ sales have weakened, and fluorite market prices have slightly decreased.

Future Market Forecast: The equipment of cryolite enterprises is operating normally and maintaining active shipments. Upstream supply is tight, and cryolite prices are firm under cost support. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, with insufficient positive support. In the game of supply and demand on the market, it is expected that the short-term cryolite market will remain stable and wait-and-see. Specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory and downstream acceptance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak in October. From October 7th to 27th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9725 yuan/ton to 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, and the price decreased by 2.81% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene experienced weak fluctuations, with major production enterprises lowering their listing prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. Due to the weak industry mentality, the focus of market transactions has weakened. In the middle of the month, the raw material pure benzene oscillated and operated, with relatively stable cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are mostly purchased on demand, with a general trading atmosphere and narrow market consolidation. In the latter half of the month, the raw material pure benzene was operating in a volatile manner, with stable cost support. Some units were shut down, but downstream demand was average and more purchases were made on demand, resulting in a narrow weakening of market prices.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market was sorted and operated in October. As of October 27th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 7917.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.12% compared to the beginning of this month (8172.17 yuan/ton). In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, the domestic caprolactam market was weak in October, and the production of downstream caprolactam was mainly supported by cyclohexanone units. Caprolactam is one of the most important downstream products of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and the cost side has not changed much yet, but it is still at a high level. Under cost pressure, some caprolactam companies have raised their prices. Downstream procurement on demand, with average terminal demand. As of October 27th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Business Society is 13062.50 yuan/ton. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner, with a relatively stable cost profile. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate sideways.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of October 26, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8133 yuan/ton. Compared to October 19, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8533 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.69%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that after the end of the National Day holiday in October, the overall market situation of domestic butanone has started to decline weakly. Entering this week, the overall decline in the butanone market has not stopped, and the price trend continues to move towards the low end. On October 26th, the domestic market price of butanone referred to 7900-8300 yuan/ton, and some low prices in Shandong region have dropped to around 7700 yuan/ton. Within seven days, the price will be reduced by about 300-400 yuan/ton.

Factors influencing the decline of butanone market after the holiday:

In terms of demand: Currently, the overall performance of downstream demand for butanone is weak, and terminal procurement is cautious. It is difficult to effectively support the butanone market due to the constraints on the demand side. New orders for butanone on the market are limited, the inquiry atmosphere is cold, and the mentality on the market is empty.

In terms of supply: After the holiday, the overall shipment of butanone was poor, and the pressure on on-site supply increased. The bearish sentiment gradually rose, and the actual transaction volume was less than expected. The overall negotiation of the butanone market declined, and the market eased and declined.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market of Butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere of domestic butanone on the market is still weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. There has been no significant improvement in the demand side of downstream demand, and it has been heard that some downstream factories may have short-term parking and maintenance plans, providing support for butanone is also weak. Business Society butanone data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly be weak and adjust its operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.