Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9725 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.18% compared to the price of 9425 yuan/ton on September 7th. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have risen, leading to cost transmission. This week, aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid has increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10316.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.15% compared to the price of 10100 yuan/ton on September 7th; The price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 2.82% compared to 10033.33 yuan/ton on September 1st. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and there has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers has slightly increased. In addition, the price of sulfuric acid has risen significantly, leading to an increase in the price of fluorite. The rising prices of raw materials such as fluorite and sulfuric acid have driven the hydrofluoric acid market higher. The support for the price increase of aluminum fluoride in the future is increasing.

Rising prices of raw material fluorite

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of fluorite was 3350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.89% compared to the price of 3193.75 yuan/ton on September 7th; The price of fluorite increased by 5.30% compared to 3181.25 yuan/ton on September 1st. Since September, the price of fluorite has continued to rise. The upstream mining of fluorite is tight, and backward mines will continue to be phased out. Under the golden nine silver ten market, demand for fluorite is expected to rebound, and downstream enterprises follow up on demand. The price of fluorite continues to rise, supporting costs, and increasing support for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have fluctuated and increased this week, leading to an increase in the cost of raw materials for fluoride aluminum. Overall, the expected rebound in demand due to rising costs, increased support for the rise of aluminum fluoride, and expected fluctuations in aluminum fluoride prices in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 13th, the average spot market price of nickel was 163850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% compared to the previous trading day.

On the eve of the release of August CPI data in the United States, the cautious atmosphere in the market rose, and the US dollar index strengthened again, with Lunni closing 3.03% lower overnight. In the short term, frequent disturbances occur at the mining end in Indonesia; The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines; Due to pollution issues, the Indonesian government has recommended five nickel mines to suspend production and rectify, providing support for nickel prices. However, domestic electrolytic nickel production continues to increase in volume, with weak spot transactions for refined nickel. Pure nickel supply suppresses nickel prices, and the focus shifts downwards. LME nickel inventory has accumulated in the short term. The domestic nickel supply is strong and the demand is weak. With the release of new production capacity, the long-term trend of nickel prices is downward, but there is still a lot of short-term mining news disturbance, which forms support for nickel. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price has temporarily stabilized this week. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market this week is 13050.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 11.22% year-on-year.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors are temporarily stable this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has stabilized at a high level this week, with a price of 11642.86 yuan/ton. Weekend prices increased by 9.45% year-on-year. The market situation of maleic anhydride has significantly increased this week, with prices rising from 7400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7799.80 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.40%. Weekend prices fell by 1.27% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly increased this week. The price of spandex has increased from 34125.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 34250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.37%. Weekend prices increased by 3.01% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In mid to late September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream 1,4-butanediol and maleic anhydride markets have slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 11th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 75000 yuan/ton, which is mainly stable compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 75000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. Last week, the price for the same period was 75000 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream price is around 75000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is weak and downward. Downstream replenishment is on demand, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On September 10th, the chemical index stood at 942 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 32.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 57.53% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

Analysts from Business Society believe that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from September 1 to September 8, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased from 7816.67 yuan/ton last week to 8400 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 7.46%.

In terms of crude oil: OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices. On September 7th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $86.87 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 or 0.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $89.92 per barrel, a decrease of $0.68 or 0.8%. Long profit taking, coupled with market vigilance against weak demand expectations, has suppressed oil prices.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised three times in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan/ton during the week. Currently, it is priced at 8350 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, slightly falling for three consecutive weeks, and rising by another 2.01% this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the macro performance of this week was good, with domestic commodity prices rising more or falling less, and the market atmosphere was more active. Crude oil continued to rise during the week, with styrene strengthening on the market. The supply of pure benzene itself was slightly tight, and downstream markets were actively entering the market. Under the influence of multiple positive factors, the pure benzene market has rapidly risen this week, while the hydrogenation benzene market has been significantly affected. The factory price in the main production area has increased to 8400 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 550 yuan/ton during the week.

This week, the domestic hydrogenation benzene market saw a significant increase, with an increase of 400-450 yuan/ton. On the supply side, driven by costs and profits, the overall operating rate has increased this week, with slightly loose supply and little overall change. The changes in demand have been limited this week, and the impact of supply and demand on the market during the week is relatively small, mainly following the trend of the industrial chain. In the future market, the expectations for gold, silver, and ten are relatively sufficient. As the National Day holiday approaches, there are generally stocking plans in the market and downstream, and there are obvious positive factors in the market. However, as market prices rise to high levels, further upward resistance increases. After the weekend crude oil correction, the hydrogenation benzene market slightly declines. It is expected that the high consolidation trend of the pure benzene industry chain in the future will be the main focus, with a focus on downstream stocking plans.