1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in June, with the overall increase being the main trend. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 21900 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 22900 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 4.57%.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with the overall increase being the main trend. In the early part of this month, the manufacturer mainly placed preliminary orders, but there was not much inventory on the market and they were reluctant to sell at low prices, resulting in an overall market increase. In the middle of the month, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was light, and the start of construction in the yellow phosphorus market was still at a low level. Some enterprises postponed driving, and market transactions were limited, with prices slightly falling. At present, most of the yellow phosphorus production enterprises are reducing their production load in the latter half of the year, with stable prices as the main focus. Downstream procurement is based on demand and can be taken as needed. As of now, the quotation in Sichuan region is around 22800-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 26, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 942 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1010 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.73%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is average, with downstream purchases being the main demand, and new orders being relatively cautious. The phosphate ore data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly be weak and organized, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in June 2023, the coke market experienced a round of increase and decrease. As of the time of publication, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 1754 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and a monthly decrease of 2.34%. In June, the coke market experienced a round of decline, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton. Towards the end of the month, the market started its first round of increase with the positive boost of steel prices. However, the mentality of the coke steel game was heavy, and the first round of increase had not yet been implemented. Overall, the difficulty of landing the first round of rising prices has increased, and the overall market atmosphere has weakened. The steel market is in the off-season, and actual demand is weak. The coke steel game mentality is strong, and it is expected that the coke market will temporarily operate stably in the short term. The first round of rising prices will be difficult to land in the near future.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month is 6220.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month is 6280 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 0.96% during the month. The phosphoric acid market price fluctuated this month, and overall, the price has increased. The price of thermal phosphoric acid has slightly increased this month, and the support of raw material yellow phosphorus is still acceptable. However, downstream demand is average, and the phosphoric acid market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that in June, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with the overall increase being the main trend. At present, the market trading situation is average, with enterprises focusing on stabilizing prices and downstream purchasing on demand. Both supply and demand sides are more wait-and-see. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will temporarily stabilize and operate in the short term, and actual transactions will be negotiated separately.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 29, the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 332500.00 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from June 1.

In June, the industrial Lithium hydroxide market rose to a high level. In the first half of the month, the upstream Spodumene price was running at a high level, the upstream Lithium carbonate price was stable and rising, and the cost support was stable, which boosted the price mentality of the industry. The enterprise quotation rose. The manufacturer was dominated by long-term orders. The downstream needs to follow up, and the enthusiasm for inquiry increased. However, the new orders in the market were generally closed, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the second half of the month, the cost support continued, the operating rate of downstream material plants increased, and the enthusiasm for market inquiry was fair, but the actual transaction was limited, the capacity utilization rate of production enterprises was limited, and the focus of Lithium hydroxide market negotiation was stability.

The upstream Lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business community: on June 28, the reference price of Lithium carbonate battery grade was 312400.00, up 0.77% from June 1 (310000.00). On June 28, the reference price of Lithium carbonate industrial grade was 298000.00, up 2.76% from June 1 (290000.00).

Analysts from Lithium hydroxide business agency believe that the current cost support still exists, the Spot market transaction atmosphere is light, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic Lithium hydroxide market will either wait and see to sort out and operate, and more attention should be paid to the upstream Lithium carbonate price changes.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the auction price of the high-temperature Coal tar market rose slightly this week. From June 26 to July 3, the domestic Coal tar price rose from 3842.5 yuan/ton to 4250 yuan/ton, and the price rose 10.61% in the cycle.

As of June 30th, the auction prices of major domestic manufacturers have all risen, with an increase of approximately 300 to 450 yuan/ton. The degree of adjustment varies slightly among different regions, and the overall price difference has narrowed. The Shanxi region will implement a price increase of 4230-4290 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400-420 yuan/ton. The Shandong region implemented a 4260 yuan/ton increase of 330 yuan/ton. This week, the Hebei region implemented a 4200 yuan/ton increase of 450 yuan/ton, while the Jiangsu region implemented a 4260 yuan/ton increase of 330 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above monthly Coal tar K column chart, we can see that the Coal tar market has risen for three consecutive months after falling for two consecutive months. The weekly K column chart shows that the Coal tar market has been up more than down less recently.

During this cycle, the price of tar in the main domestic production areas has been the main trend, with an increase of approximately 300-450 yuan/ton. There are slight differences in the adjustment rates among different regions, and the overall price difference has narrowed. The last auction at the end of the month was boosted by the rise of downstream products and the upward psychology of coke companies, leading to another increase in tar prices at the end of the month. There has been little change in supply and demand. From the operating rate curve of domestic independent coking enterprises since 2022, we can see that after entering June 2023, the operating rate of coking enterprises has first increased and then decreased, but basically fluctuated slightly around 75%. The coking enterprises have a strong attitude towards price support, and the supply of tar is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, the recent changes in the operating rate of the deep processing industry have been limited, and downstream procurement remains on demand. Since the market entered into April, the Coal tar market has experienced sharp rises and falls frequently, mainly as a result of the supply and demand game. Although the continuous rise at the end of June recovered from the sharp drop in mid June, the upward trend is still difficult to maintain without a significant improvement in downstream demand. In the future, the business agency predicts that the tar market will continue to fluctuate widely due to weak downstream demand. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of downstream coal tar asphalt and carbon black.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the prices of industrial and battery grade Lithium carbonate rose first and then fell in June, but the overall trend is still slightly upward. On June 30, the average domestic mixed price of industrial Lithium carbonate was 298000 yuan/ton, up 2.76% from the average price of 290000 yuan/ton on June 1. On June 30, the domestic mixed average price of battery grade Lithium carbonate was 312400 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the average price of 310000 yuan/ton on June 1.

From the observation of market changes, the price of Lithium carbonate rose first and then fell in June, and the price was weak and declined near the end of the month, but the overall trend of this month is still rising at the beginning. In mid to early June, the upstream raw material supply side was limited, resulting in unstable mica production, and the price of lithium mica continued to rise. Some lithium salt factories still faced difficulties in purchasing mica, leading to increased production costs. This makes the Spot market of Lithium carbonate still show the sentiment of being a detective, while the big factories also maintain the attitude of being very expensive. The price of Spodumene is relatively stable, so the production of some lithium salt plants is relatively stable.

In late June, the price of lithium mica remained stable, and although traders’ quotations remained high, the market trading dynamics were relatively flat. While the CIF price of Spodumene concentrate remained stable, and the pricing power of Australian mines remained strong during the price shock of Lithium carbonate, which made the price game between domestic lithium salt plants and Australian mines still fierce.

In terms of demand, the market activity in the first ten days of June was average. Due to the sufficient replenishment in the early downstream period and the pressure of Lithium carbonate price transmission, it was mainly wait-and-see. While the terminal car market has recovered, the inventory of Car dealership has been continuously consumed, and gradually recovered to the inventory warning index, which dropped to 55.4%. However, the Spot market of Lithium carbonate is in an obvious upswing mood, and the mentality of big manufacturers to support prices is maintained.

In late June, although the sentiment of large manufacturers supporting prices remained stable, due to weak demand for restocking in the current market, it was difficult to achieve transactions at high prices. In addition, due to the pressure of semi annual financial reports, some Lithium carbonate factories have been selling at low prices from time to time. In addition, downstream production is at a high level, so the supply-demand game is still evident.

The downstream Lithium hydroxide market ran at a high level after rising. In the first half of June, the upstream Spodumene price ran at a high level. The price of Lithium carbonate rose steadily, and the cost support was firm, which boosted the price mentality of the industry. The enterprise quotation rose. The manufacturers were dominated by long-term orders, and the downstream more just needed to follow up. The enthusiasm of inquiry increased. However, the market was generally closed with new orders, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the second half of the month, the cost support continued, the operating rate of downstream material plants increased, and the enthusiasm for market inquiry was fair, but the actual transaction was limited, the capacity utilization rate of production enterprises was limited, and the focus of Lithium hydroxide market negotiation was stability.

The price of downstream Lithium iron phosphate rose slightly. The focus of market negotiation in June was on the high side. The operating rate of Lithium iron phosphate continued to increase due to better demand. The high price of upstream Lithium carbonate supported the cost of Lithium iron phosphate to a certain extent. The downstream market for new energy vehicles and energy storage is relatively active, with good delivery performance. However, the supply and demand sides of the market also maintain a game state and continue to wait and see.

According to Lithium carbonate analysts from the business agency, the current price trend of Lithium carbonate market is relatively weak, the low price selling state of enterprises has slightly increased, the willingness of downstream to accept high price Lithium carbonate has weakened, the game between market supply and demand has continued, the market has more to wait and see the demand and purchase volume, and it is expected that the price of Lithium carbonate may be adjusted weakly in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 29, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 7575.00 yuan/ton, down 2.26% compared with the price on Monday.

The market of Epichlorohydrin fell this week (6.26-6.29). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has narrowed down, with stable prices of raw material glycerol as the main factor and some cost support. Some factories have no inventory pressure, supporting a high price mentality. Downstream consumption of inventory raw materials is the main factor, and the enthusiasm for inquiries in the market is average, with cautious wait-and-see as the main factor. The market trading atmosphere is light, and some enterprises have lowered their quotations.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on June 28th was 6513.25, an increase of 0.81% compared to June 1st (6460.75).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on June 28th was 12533.33, a decrease of 10.48% compared to June 1st (14000.00).

The Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business society believe that the cost support is still acceptable, but the supply and demand support is still insufficient, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.