Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Cryolite in Henan Province was running smoothly. On June 20, the average market price in Henan Province was 7850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on June 14, up 3.29% compared with the same period last year.

quotations analysis

This week, the Cryolite market is stable, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable. Upstream construction continued to be low, raw material support was good, Cryolite production cost was high, many on-site devices operated at low load, enterprises had no pressure on inventory, and actively shipped, but the downstream was more resistant to high prices, mainly purchasing on demand. Cryolite enterprises kept a wait-and-see attitude, operated steadily, and the market negotiation atmosphere was fair. As of June 20, the ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Shandong Province was 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Henan is 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is stable and on the watch. As of June 20th, the average market price was 3136.25 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 3136.25 yuan/ton on June 14th. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises is low, and the increase in spot supply is limited. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, which limits the increase in operating rate of fluorite. The price of fluorite is strong and the downstream procurement needs to follow up. The fluorite market is on the sidelines.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated and rose. On June 20th, the aluminum price was around 18870.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% compared to the price of 18600.00 yuan/ton on June 14th. Terminal consumption is limited, and downstream market entry follows up on demand. Recently, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and some regions have significantly reduced inventory, leading to an upward trend in aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises have no pressure on inventory. Upstream raw materials continue to be favorable, supporting the stable operation of Cryolite prices. Downstream parties follow up as needed. The trading and investment atmosphere in the market is fair, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that Cryolite market will be mainly wait-and-see in the later period, and the price range will fluctuate. In the future market, specific attention will be paid to the changes of manufacturers’ inventory.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, as of June 18, the average ex factory price of the mainstream Naphtha of domestic local refining and hydrogenation was 7971.50 yuan/ton, down 1.70% from 8109.00 yuan/ton on June 12. The actual transaction price of local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

As of June 18, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run Naphtha mainstream was 7926.50 yuan/ton, 0.88% lower than the price of 7996.50 yuan/ton on June 11. The actual transaction price of local straight run Naphtha was about 7700-7900 yuan/ton.

On June 18, the Naphtha commodity index was 98.38, unchanged from yesterday, 19.12% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and 132.91% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of locally refined Naphtha dropped slightly this week. Reforming and ethylene just need to be stocked. The market turnover is light, and businesses mainly wait and see.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Mainly due to unexpected retail growth in the United States in May, supported by positive employment data, the expectation of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike process has strengthened. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has boosted oil prices.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, toluene has been relatively weak this week. On June 12th, the price of toluene was 7120.00 yuan/ton, and on June 18th, it was 7080.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. This week, the price of mixed xylene has been declining. On June 12th, the price of mixed xylene was 7360 yuan/ton, and on June 18th, it was 7210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04%. The PX price trend this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8200 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The energy analysts of the business society believe that the international crude oil shocks this week, and the market mentality is different. Recent restructuring, ethylene just needs to be purchased, the market transaction is limited, businesses are mainly wait-and-see, refineries are actively shipping, and it is expected that the local refining Naphtha market will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 16th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 20.59% compared to the same period last year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 16, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25166.67 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 19.84% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of June 16, the price of chloroform fell 8.79% in the month, and the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped 0.29% slightly. The continued weakness of upstream raw material prices will have a certain effect on the price of R22 market in the future. Supported by the fact that summer is the peak season for refrigerant demand, the manufacturer’s offer was temporarily stable this week.

In the middle of June, the overall price of Trichloroethylene was stable, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly by 0.29%, and the price of raw materials was stable and weak. Supported by the peak demand season for refrigerant in summer, the price offered by the manufacturer was temporarily stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, overall, the current domestic price of hydrofluoric acid is still at a low level, and the continued weakness of raw material costs will further suppress the domestic refrigerant market prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, as the weather gradually heats up, the domestic refrigerant industry as a whole has entered the off-season of production and the peak season of demand. The overall supply and demand game in the market is relatively fierce, and due to the continuous decline in raw material costs, the overall domestic R22 and R134a prices will be under pressure in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate has declined slightly by 0.71% since June: on the first day, the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) in China was reported at 1768 yuan/ton, and on the twelfth day, the market was reported at 1756 yuan/ton.

As shown in the figure, since the second quarter of 2023, the domestic market of Aluminium chlorohydrate has been on a downward trend for several consecutive weeks. The weekly decline in April has occasionally expanded, the decline in May first narrowed and then slightly expanded, and the decline has been slightly weak since June. The water treatment enterprises in the main production areas of our country have normal production, sufficient market supply, poor downstream procurement demand, average transaction, and the Aluminium chlorohydrate market continues to be weak.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fluctuated slightly in June, showing a “U” shape. Among them, the price of hydrochloric acid (31%) was about 175 yuan/ton on the 1st, dropped to 165 yuan/ton on the 5th, and slightly increased to 173 yuan/ton on the 12th. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support and weak downstream purchasing willingness. Analysis suggests that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing minor fluctuations and declines in recent times.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has risen since June. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on June 1st was 4416 yuan/ton, and on June 12th it was 3728 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 15.58%. Recently, the trend of the domestic liquefied natural gas market has been dominant, with a strong market sentiment towards high prices. The bidding price for raw gas has increased, resulting in a positive cost side effect. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to rise in the short term.

Future market forecast: Since June, the market support for raw fuel LNG has slightly increased. However, due to the sufficient supply of Aluminium chlorohydrate market and general downstream demand, trading enterprises report that business is difficult. With regard to the future market, the analysis believes that the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate will remain stable and slightly weak.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market has been operating steadily in the past week. On June 12th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9133 yuan/ton.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the price of Coal tar market has fallen and risen. At present, the price of Coal tar market in China is 4362 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuates around 100 yuan. Due to the decline in the operating rate of coke enterprises, the supply of Coal tar in some areas of the plant is relatively tight, and the price of Coal tar in the main production areas in China has remained strong, which has strong support for the carbon black cost side.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and there is little change in industry operating at the end of the month.

In terms of demand: In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable, and finished product inventory is at a reasonable level. With the support of early inventory, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods is average, and purchasing is mainly based on hard demand. There is currently no obvious positive news in the market, and the enterprise has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with weak transactions in the carbon black market.

On the whole, the cost side of raw material Coal tar has some support, but there are signs of a downward trend. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. The terminal downstream enterprises have accumulated serious inventory on the market, and the market procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.