1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its upward trend from last week and continued to climb this week (June 16-20). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4677 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened this week, and the spot market continues to climb driven by the crude oil and futures markets. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. Most enterprises are operating at high loads, and the operating rate has remained at the previous level. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide has slightly decreased this week, and the market has entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly decline of calcium carbide is 0.68%. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and PVC prices have rebounded.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, there will be sufficient PVC supply, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain at a high level. The inventory of enterprises is still generally high, and it needs to be continuously reduced in the later stage. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly driven by the improvement of market sentiment and the rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.
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