According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 11th, the average price of nickel spot market was 182166.67 yuan / ton, up 4.18% from the previous trading day and 29.17% year-on-year.

On the 11th, the nickel price rebounded at a low level. Recently, the nickel price has continued its low and wide fluctuation trend. The macro environment improved. The CPI of the United States dropped sharply to 8.5% in July. At the end of July, the quarter on quarter CPI rose by 0%, the expected increase was 0.2%, and the previous value rose by 1.2%. The expectation of 75 basis points interest rate hike dropped sharply, the US dollar fell sharply, non-ferrous metals rebounded generally, and LUNI nickel closed up 4.5% overnight. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel ore and ferronickel in the overseas market has increased rapidly. Recently, the profit window of refined nickel import has been continuously opened, and the domestic electrolytic nickel supply is expected to be loose. In July, the apparent consumption of domestic nickel rebounded compared with the previous period, and the domestic pure nickel inventory was in an absolute position. In addition, the recovery of overseas nickel mines eased the tight situation. Indonesian nickel iron, wet intermediate products and high matte nickel gradually flowed in, and the excess pressure on the supply side remained unchanged. Due to the implementation of production reduction in the downstream stainless steel, the high inventory has gone through certain decontamination, but the overall demand is still less than expected.

Forecast: the supply and demand of nickel tends to be loose, and it is expected that the nickel price will remain low and fluctuate widely.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on August 10, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 4367 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day, with a month on month decrease of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 28.19%. The main contract of asphalt futures 2209 closed at 4115 yuan / ton, up 1.5%.

The international crude oil mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, the asphalt market fundamentals are supported, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and the futures market surges. In terms of spot goods, the quotations of manufacturers and traders are large, stable and small, and the range of change is about 30 yuan / ton. The market supply and demand are basically in balance. Due to the influence of weather conditions, the downstream construction is not smooth, and the demand is slightly depressed.

In the short term, the domestic asphalt market is dominated by consolidation.

On August 9, the rare earth index was 718 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 28.70% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 164.94% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index has declined. The price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series has dropped sharply. The price of metal praseodymium and neodymium has dropped by 5000 yuan / ton to 915000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 754500 yuan / ton. The price of neodymium oxide is 802500 yuan / ton. The price of metal neodymium is 1.015 million yuan / ton. The price of metal praseodymium is 1.095 million yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium oxide is 805000 yuan / ton. The price of terbium oxide is 13.75 million yuan / ton. The price of metal terbium is 17.4 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide was 2.295 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal was 3.055 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 2.295 million yuan / ton, the price of domestic light rare earth market fell, the traders were generally active, the metal factories were cautious and just needed to follow up. The price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market was temporarily stable, the price trend of terbium series was temporarily stable, and the downstream purchase was mainly based on demand. Myanmar prohibited exports, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will decline in the later period.

On the cost side, crude oil support is weak; The decrease of centralized parking in the downstream reduces the demand for pure benzene; Sinopec has continuously lowered its listing price. The pure benzene market is in a bad mood and the price is down. Today, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8200 yuan / ton.

The decline of pure benzene expanded, and the cost side support was poor. Today, aniline enterprises cut prices to promote shipment. Today, the price in Shandong is 10500-10700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 10800-11600 yuan / ton.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to be stable this week. On August 5, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, which was the same as the quotation at the beginning of the week and increased by 0.66% month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market continued to be firm and stable. The cryolite enterprises shipped smoothly and the quotation was high. The supply of raw materials was still tight and the price was high. In addition, the fuel cost was high, the manufacturer’s production cost was high, and the cryolite devices were mainly operated at low load. The enterprise’s inventory was tight and the price was high. The downstream demand followed up steadily, which supported the firm operation of the cryolite market. The attitude of the operators continued to wait and see. As of August 5, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong Province was 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province was 7200-8600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

The upstream soda ash continued to decline. As of August 5, the average market price was about 2710 yuan / ton. The price continued to decline during the week, with a decrease of 2.87% compared with the beginning of the week. The downstream demand continued to be weak, the purchasing enthusiasm was not high, the trading atmosphere in the field was light, the manufacturers offered profits to negotiate shipment, the market focus continued to move downward, and the soda ash market was in a weak position.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated. On August 5, the aluminum price was about 18420 yuan / ton, rising 0.54% in the whole week. In the early stage, the price of aluminum price decreased and gradually approached the cost side. In the recent period, the price of aluminum stopped falling and stabilized, and the price of aluminum increased slightly. However, the social inventory began to accumulate, which suppressed the increase of aluminum price to a certain extent. The market performance was strong in supply and weak in demand. In the future, the aluminum market will wait and see.

Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is in a stalemate, with strong support from suppliers. The cost factors such as raw material shortage and high fuel cost are difficult to improve in a short time. The enterprise’s inventory is tight, the downstream demand is acceptable, and the enterprise’s shipment is relatively smooth. In a comprehensive view, it is expected that the short-term cryolite market will continue to operate at a high level.