In September, the domestic PA6 market first rose and then fell, with prices surging and then falling. The benchmark price at the end of the month fell to 14600 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the market continued its previous upward trend, with prices soaring to a high of 15400 yuan/ton for the year. However, in the second half of the year, the upward trend came to a halt, and the market turned downwards, entering a volatile and bearish pullback trend. Prices have rebounded from their high levels, but overall they are still in the high range for the year.
1、 Cost end
In early September, the upstream raw material caprolactam followed the market sentiment to strengthen, which formed a strong cost pull on slicing and helped push up the price of PA6; In the mid to late period, the upward momentum of caprolactam has subsided, the center of gravity of the raw material side has loosened, and cost support has weakened to some extent. The benefits brought by the raw material side in the early stage are gradually being digested, and the cost is no longer continuously driven upwards, which weakens the support for PA6 and becomes an important incentive for the price decline in the middle and later stages.
2、 Supply and demand side
supply
Partial equipment maintenance in early September led to a temporary tightening of the supply of sliced goods, supporting market growth; With the restart of maintenance equipment and the recovery of industry production, the supply of spot goods in the market is gradually recovering, the tight supply situation has eased, and the supply pressure has reappeared.
Requirement
Downstream textile and modified injection molding terminals have been driven by the expectation of price increases in the early stage, resulting in centralized inventory replenishment and consumption of some social inventory; But after the price surge, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials increased, and the willingness to follow up quickly weakened. Purchasing returned to just in need and on-demand, without continuous replenishment power. The downstream weaving and injection molding industries have not seen a significant increase in orders, and high prices are suppressing downstream production enthusiasm. The demand side is unable to bear high prices, which is suppressing the continued upward trend of the market.
3、 Short term future forecast
Short term PA6 may continue to fluctuate and operate in a bearish pattern. The cost benefits of the previous price increase have been basically realized, and the supply side has recovered; However, there is a lack of substantial improvement in terminal demand, resulting in significant resistance to high-level transactions. However, there is still some bottom support on the raw material side, and the space for deep decline is limited. The market is likely to fluctuate weakly within a certain range, and the moving average system has issued a bearish signal. There are currently no clear conditions for reversal and long positions.
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