As of October 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 10633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.16% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on October 1st, which was 10016.67 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st at the beginning of the year, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 5966.67 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 78.21%. After the holiday, the price of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. In October, phthalic anhydride showed a pattern of supply contraction driven and slight increase, and the price completely reached the 10000 yuan mark; The supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak to keep up. Phthalic anhydride belongs to a structural market of “strong supply, weak demand”, and the sustained upward momentum of phthalic anhydride is questionable.
The cost of raw materials has skyrocketed
The rise in crude oil prices is transmitted downstream, and the core driving force behind the current rise in phthalic anhydride comes from the comprehensive increase in raw material costs. In terms of ortho xylene, prices are showing an accelerating upward trend. On October 9th, the price of ortho benzene was increased by 200 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, and on October 12th, it was further increased by 200 yuan/ton to 10150 yuan/ton. The continuous shortage of ortho benzene supply, low inventory in refineries and ports, and strong willingness of holders to raise prices. The significant increase in the cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride has supported the price increase of phthalic anhydride factories.
Tightening of phthalic anhydride supply
The maintenance and parking of the equipment are relatively concentrated. The overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to 52%, with a decrease in the quantity of goods in stock. Manufacturers’ inventories are low, some companies are oversold, and orders are limited. The supply of spot goods has tightened, supporting an increase in quotations.
Insufficient incremental demand for phthalic anhydride
The downstream plasticizer industry is the main consumer area of phthalic anhydride, and the overall plasticizer market has risen this month, providing certain demand support for phthalic anhydride. However, the operating load of plasticizer enterprises has shown a slight downward trend, with downstream demand mainly focused on rigid procurement and phthalic anhydride procurement on demand, resulting in limited incremental demand pull. The decrease in operating load of plasticizer enterprises has weakened the support for phthalic anhydride demand, and the price increase is more driven by the cost side rather than the demand side. The demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the willingness to chase up phthalic anhydride prices is poor.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that there will be more maintenance and supply tightening of phthalic anhydride equipment after the holiday, but downstream production will decrease and demand for phthalic anhydride will be weak. Phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and rise, but the sustainability of the rise is insufficient. In the future, the short-term phthalic anhydride maintenance equipment has not been fully restarted, and the tight supply pattern continues. Phthalic anhydride prices are mainly fluctuating at high levels, but there is limited room for further significant upward movement. Prices remain firm, and negotiations for discounts on actual orders have increased. Late October: As the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply increment is released; With the gradual weakening of downstream terminal demand and the easing of tight supply-demand balance, there is a risk of a downward pressure on the price center. Downstream maintenance of essential procurement, it is not recommended to stockpile goods in large quantities at high levels; The trading side is cautious in chasing the rise, focusing on tracking the progress of equipment resumption, DOP start-up, and ortho xylene prices.
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