During the National Day holiday, the global energy crisis continued to ferment, the international crude oil price rose, and the chemical industry sector operated strongly as a whole, driving the polyester industry chain. At the same time, affected by the dual control of energy consumption in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of polyester weaving further fell to less than 80%, and the supply of goods was tight, mainly consumption inventory. The prices of polyester filament products rose sharply, ranging from 7-10% higher than before the national day, and the cash flow recovered to a certain extent.

Rise and fall of average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-10-1 2021-10-11 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) nine thousand two hundred and forty-one ten thousand two hundred and forty-seven 10.88% 53.20%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand six hundred and sixty-one eight thousand four hundred and twenty-two 9.93% 60.85%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) eight thousand one hundred and eleven eight thousand six hundred and ninety-eight 7.24% 55.42%

On the raw material side, crude oil rose sharply. On October 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $79.35/barrel, up US $1.05 or 1.3%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.39/barrel, up US $0.44 or 0.5%. As winter approaches, fuel demand increases, superimposed supply tightening is difficult to ease, and oil prices are still strong and volatile. In PTA market, as of October 11, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5543 yuan / ton, up 9.35% from October 7 and 66.73% year-on-year. With the continuous maintenance of the plant, the industrial commencement dropped to around 60%, and the output at the supply end was compressed.

During the National Day holiday, some textile factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang that were shut down due to power restriction in the early stage resumed operation one after another, and the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was raised to around 54%. Due to the continuous rise of raw materials for many consecutive days, the rise of shipping prices and labor costs are also rising. The superposition of “power limitation and shutdown” makes many textile bosses downstream miserable. Weaving factories gradually accepted the fact that the upstream price rose and raised the finished product price one after another. On October 9, the chamber of Commerce for home textiles of shading cloth around Taihu Lake (including 100 shading cloth enterprises) issued a notice of price increase:

How long will this wave of price rise last? Business analysts believe that the current high prices of natural gas and coal, strong market expectations for heating demand in winter, boost the rise of crude oil prices, and the cost side price will still be strong. Boosted by raw materials, downstream weaving enterprises are also singing loudly, so that they have to transfer costs downward. At present, under the background of dual control of energy consumption, the production restriction of the industrial chain will become a fact. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain an upward trend in the short term.

On October 9, the trend of domestic potash fertilizer market was weak and stable, and the average price of 50 particles of potassium sulfate in the business community was 4133.33 yuan / ton. The market trend of upstream potassium chloride is high and stable, which can support the cost of domestic potassium sulfate. It is close to winter ploughing, but the demand for potassium sulfate is still slow. It is heard that the shipment of traders is not smooth and the market momentum is insufficient. The operating rate of processing potassium sulfate plant maintained the previous level, which was less than 60% as a whole. The domestic supply is sufficient and the market is in a stalemate. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue the weak consolidation operation in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market rose after the festival on October 8, and the spot prices of various brands increased significantly. According to the price of business agency, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 10016.67 yuan / ton. Upstream, coal and other energy prices continued to strengthen, the supply of direct raw material propylene was compact, and the price rose. Superimposed on the current production restriction policies, more favorable conditions pushed up the spot price. After the market price rose, the downstream purchasing operation was cautious and the trading situation was general. There are many details about the merchant’s actual shipping list,

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on September 30 was 12366.67 yuan / ton, up 233.34 yuan / ton from 12133.33 yuan at the beginning of the month, up 1.92% in the month

2、 Market analysis

In September, the hiips market rose slightly, up about 2%, and the price of benzene rose slightly by 0.6%. The PS market as a whole moved forward in a steady upward trend. This month, driven by the raw material end, styrene fluctuated sharply in the month, rose and then fell, with an increase of about 4% in the month. The cost side supported the rise of hips price. In the first week of September, the market price of hips fell slightly by 0.55%, and the market transaction was light; In the second week, the raw styrene market rebounded strongly, boosting the hips market, but the demand dragged down, and hips returned to the decline at the weekend; In the third week, driven by the rising price of raw styrene and the release of the dual control policy on energy consumption, manufacturers started or declined, and the supply decreased, which was conducive to the rise of hips price, with an increase of 2.2% during the week. From the fourth week to the end of the month, the hips market basically operated smoothly, the impact of dual control on energy consumption continued, the demand of downstream users was low, the demand decreased, and the hips market was stable and weak. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 12000-14900 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene penetration is mostly 11000-11350 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from July 5 to September 26, 2021 that hips prices were mainly stable in July and August, but the range was not large. They stopped falling and rising in September, and rose by 2.2% in the week of September 13, which was the largest increase in this cycle.

In the international crude oil market, on September 28, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.29/barrel, down US $0.16 or 0.2%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.35/barrel, down US $0.37 or 0.47%. On Tuesday, the oil price rose first and then fell. The oil distribution disk once rose above the US $80 mark, and then profit taking was affected by the sharp decline of US stocks, Oil prices fell slightly.

In terms of raw materials, on September 29, the reference price of styrene was 9160.00, an increase of 4.24% compared with September 1 (8787.50). The correction of pure benzene is temporarily stable, the cost support of styrene still exists, and the falling price space is limited. The styrene maintenance unit is gradually restored, the domestic supply will increase, and the fundamentals of styrene itself still show signs of weakening. Although next week is approaching the National Day holiday, the market may still have the possibility of preparing goods before the festival, but the rise is weak. It is expected that the price of styrene will remain stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the business society, the hips market rose steadily in September. Towards the end of the month, the downstream construction was not high and the demand was reduced. The hips market callback slightly, but the overall operation is still stable. It is expected that the hips price may decline slightly in the short term, and the trend of raw material price needs to be paid attention to.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (September 30): 21233.33 yuan / ton

On September 30, the epichlorohydrin market was on the sidelines, mainly stable, up 46.77% compared with September 1 and 87.35% compared with the same period last year. At present, the price of raw material propylene rises slightly, the price of glycerol runs at a high level, and the cost support still exists, but the demand side is slightly insufficient, the market atmosphere is light, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be weak and wait-and-see.