Supply and inventory are expected to shrink, and POM prices rise again

Price trend

Sulfamic acid 99.50%

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in early December, and the spot price rose. As of December 2, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20166.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.51% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the recent methanol market is at a low level. With the decline of coal price, the support of methanol cost is weakened, and some methanol units are restored, the supply side is abundant. The price focus of the domestic methanol market continued to fall, unable to support the formaldehyde market, and formaldehyde fell. At present, the downstream is generally affected by environmental protection control, and the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is expected to decline slightly.

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Upstream formaldehyde continued to fall, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, the recent domestic operating rate is affected by Yuntianhua maintenance, and the market supply is expected to be reduced. Moreover, the enterprise inventory is still low, the on-site supply remains tight, and the supply side is good for the spot price. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 19600 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 20000 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20900 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. I’ve heard that there is resistance to traders’ shipment and there is a certain order transfer operation.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to decline, and the cost support of POM was weak. The on-site supply is expected to shrink again, but the spot price affects the procurement operation of downstream enterprises. At present, the trading tends to take small orders. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain production, the market atmosphere is relatively light, and there is a certain pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the rise of POM market may be hindered in the short term.