Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business society, after the sharp rise in May, the liquid ammonia has been consolidating at a high level from June to early July. Since mid July, the liquid ammonia market has started again and continued to rise, with a strong increase. According to the monitoring of the business society, the liquid ammonia has increased by 6.72% in the past two weeks (July 12-22). At present, the price range of Shandong market is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of higher cost and tight supply and demand.

With the increase of market inflation expectation, as domestic commodities usher in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal of liquid ammonia, the rise is stronger. Good cost support is obvious. In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia continues to be tight. At present, it is still affected by the low operation rate of domestic devices and the excessive number of maintenance devices, and the supply has decreased significantly, which leads to the shortage of supply in the market and the price of liquid ammonia has gone up sharply due to factors such as dealers’ speculation.

On the cost side, the domestic coal market is booming. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of July 22, the price of steam coal rose by 7.54% in July. The price has broken through the high point of may in the last round of rise, rising by more than 80% compared with the same period last year（ (see above)

On the supply side, tight supply is the direct cause of the rise in the price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate of ammonia enterprises is declining, and routine maintenance and device failures occur frequently in many regions of China. According to statistics, in July, several sets of devices were stopped in Lianghu, northwest and Hebei. In the last two weeks, large plants in Shandong and Hebei have entered the maintenance period. The maintenance period generally has a long time span of nearly one month, which has a great impact on the production capacity. The market has gradually spread from the shortage of local supply at the beginning of this month to the shortage of ammonia in many regions of China.

From the downstream perspective, urea has been fluctuating at a high level since June. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of urea has also risen in the past two weeks, with an increase of 2.21%, 67.81% over the same period last year. The maintenance of urea plant is still the same. Recently, the production reduction and resumption of urea enterprises are staggered, and the start-up recovery is slow. The daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. Superimposed printing mark landing, domestic market mentality has been boosted.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, and the agricultural demand is fair; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. According to the monitoring of business news agency, monoammonium phosphate has also been on the rise in the past two weeks. At present, it has reached the stage peak. In the last two weeks (July 12-22), it has increased by 2.21% so far.

In the future, the tight supply of domestic ammonia is difficult to solve in the short term. In addition, with the cost support brought by the high price of upstream raw materials, the price of liquid ammonia may remain high, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 21, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 30633 yuan / ton, which was 67 yuan / ton higher than that on July 14 (30566 yuan / ton), an increase of 0.22%.

Since the beginning of July, China’s domestic silicone DMC market has been running steadily at a high level, with little fluctuation in market price. As of July 14, the reference price of silicone DMC is around 30500-30900 yuan / ton. In late July, a monomer factory in Shandong broke the calm of the silicone DMC market. On the 15th and 16th, the factory price of silicone DMC was slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton for two consecutive days, and the factory price of silicone DMC was adjusted to 30700 yuan / ton. Most of the other monomer factories continued to maintain stable prices in the early stage, and the market continued to consolidate at a high level, Shandong large factories once again raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC to 30800 yuan / ton, and other individual monomer factories also rose sporadically. The downstream demand of silicone DMC weakened. With the continuous high raw material level, the downstream delivery became more cautious. So far, as of July 21, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC is 30666 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, or 0.34%.

Upstream, since July, the overall trend of domestic silicon metal market is stable. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 20, the domestic reference price of metallic silicon was 14450 yuan / ton, up 0.58% compared with July 1 (14366.67 yuan / ton).

Forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the trend of silicone DMC downstream products is all the way strong under the high support of raw materials, but the terminal downstream demand has been weakened under the sustained high level. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will continue to have insufficient upward momentum, and the market will mostly be high consolidation operation.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market of PA6 in mid July fell, and spot prices decreased. As of July 20, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15566.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a 38.99% increase compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, domestic caprolactam spot market fell slightly in the middle of this month. In the first ten days, the supply side of the company was favorable and kept rising at the end of June, but the international crude oil has declined in recent years. Meanwhile, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which is directly raw material, is expected to have new capacity, with increased supply, high pressure on drop of pure benzene and weak cost end of caprolactam in China. In terms of demand, the current downstream plant commencement rate is generally low, the market buying atmosphere is weak, and the industry’s wait-and-see mentality gradually permeates the site. Although there is a positive side of supply, domestic demand for caprolactam is slow to follow up and the cost is weak. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will easily fall and will not rise in the short term.

At present, the load of PA6 polymerization plant in China is less than that at the beginning of the month, and the load is stable at about 60%. There is no significant building of social inventory, and supply end has some support for spot, among which the price of high-speed spinning section is relatively stable. In terms of market demand, the consumption of end enterprises has not yet gone out of the off-season market, and the atmosphere of on-site observation is heavy, and the actual investment is mostly the pre order. The rise in early July affected the purchasing power of downstream enterprises. At present, buyers have a feeling of filling high price goods, and the operation of stock preparation is just needed to replenish goods to maintain production. In addition, the recent narrow decline of caprolactam, the cost side support of PA6 is loose, and the price is up to the upstream to some extent.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts at business society believe that the caprolactam in the upper reaches of PA6 was weak in mid July and the cost side support of PA6 was weakened. Currently, the starting rate of PA6 industry is maintained at a low level, and the support of supply side remains. However, the end-users are in conflict with the spot price increase in the first ten days, and the resistance to the delivery of high price goods in the field increases, which leads to the shrinking of the mid mid delivery and investment, and the market wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that spot price of PA6 will weaken slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of dichloromethane rose slightly this week (7.12-7.16). As of July 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3940 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from 3923 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, film, diluent, foaming agent and other downstream still have a certain rigid demand, which also forms a certain support for dichloromethane.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is at a low level, the price of methanol is in a narrow range, and the cost support becomes weak. According to the business news agency, as of July 16, the price of methanol was 2535 yuan / ton, slightly changed from 2530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province is about 1050 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community methane chloride data analysts believe that although the demand has some support, on the one hand, the cost side support becomes weak, on the other hand, the supply side pressure does not reduce, on the whole, the later dichloromethane market is more likely to weaken.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 696733.33 yuan / ton, up 0.25% from 69496.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 20.22% from the beginning of the year, and up 35.99% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper first suppressed and then rose in March, closing at US $9455, down 0.40% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index was in a narrow range, closing at 69430 yuan, up 0.59%. This week, the international copper index closed at 61830 yuan, up 1.00%.

Recently, copper prices mainly fluctuated in a narrow range. The drop of reserve requirement on Friday led copper futures to open higher on Monday. However, the slightly weak domestic economic data and continuous overseas trading led copper prices to callback. At the end of the week, affected by the dovish stance of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, copper futures strengthened again, and the overall trend of the week fluctuated. This week, the domestic refined copper storage is still in the downward channel. Under the background of the recent tightening of scrap copper supply and refinery production disturbance, the removal of refined copper storage is expected to continue. Consumption has a certain resilience. The recent recovery of demand in the cable field, which started the weakest in the first half of the year, may weaken the off-season effect of consumption in the third quarter. TC continued to pick up, refined copper output grew faster, and imports slowed down. It is expected that the copper price will still fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.