Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in the early market on April 2 was 5185 yuan / kg, and the average price of spot market price in the early market was 5480.33 yuan / kg, or 5.39% compared with that of the early (January 1), which was 5.39%, which was 6.58% lower than that of the early spot market on January 1.

Spot price of gold on April 2 was 368 yuan / g, up 0.66% compared with the average price of early market in early market of early market (3.1) in early April (3.1); compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, down 6.29%.

The price data in the year showed that the decline of precious metal gold silver was similar. In the early stage, silver was affected by the news side of American retail investors, and it fluctuated upward, and then it retreated to the news side for speculative increase. Silver prices began to fill the decline in March, and gold began to fluctuate in a small horizontal.

 
Similar to Gamestop, silver forced the blank, which helped the price of silver rise sharply in the late January. However, based on the silver market size reaching around $200billion, combined with the regulatory policy of exchange position restriction, silver won’t be able to push the sky. Return to the trend of precious metal decline.

Will the recent US non-agricultural employment data of March have a significant impact on the basic aspects of precious metals?

The influence geometry of the data of American and non agricultural on gold

The number of non-agricultural employment in the United States rose the largest since August. Affected by rapid vaccination and the implementation of $1400 relief fund, 916000 new non-agricultural employment was added in March, and the employment market represented by the private sector rebounded significantly.

With the government gradually relaxing the restrictions on activities, 280000 new employees in the bar, hotel and hotel industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, were employed; the employment situation in March was improved in the construction industry affected by the snowstorm in February. In addition to the better performance of new jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent in March.

The data may increase market expectations of the Fed’s early tightening. We believe that the second quarter stimulus will gradually come into effect and accelerate the recovery. The dollar will continue to strengthen in the future, which may put pressure on precious metals.

Can the speculative enthusiasm of gold bars in the United States continue in 2020

Unlike the trend of bulk metals, gold has fallen continuously since its peak in August 2020. At present, the price has been at a low level of nearly 10 months, close to the price level at the end of March 2020.

Before the fall, precious metals were in the upward phase, and gold bullion investment was more enthusiastic in the United States. In 2019, the retail investment volume of gold in the United States was about 20 tons, with relatively weak level, and then it increased by more than three times in 2020, reaching 66 tons. On the one hand, after 2016, the investment demand of gold bullion has moved down the ladder and fell to the bottom of history; on the other hand, the special market in 2020 has helped to boost speculation enthusiasm.

The special market is mainly reflected in the following 2 points:

1. Gold price rise trend in 2020

The rising trend of gold price in 2020 provides a huge impetus for the upsurge of investment enthusiasm. In particular, August set a record high. The strong performance of gold price attracted new investors to the market.

2. risk aversion caused by epidemic

The panic of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020 left the sharp fluctuations in commodity prices. The sharp increase in gold sales in the U. Speculation, coupled with concerns about interest rate cuts and inflation, such as the Fed’s move to zero in the first quarter of 2020 also spurred investment demand in 2020.

So can the speculative enthusiasm of American gold bars continue in 2021?

According to relevant data, the sales of Golden Eagle Coins exceeded 220000 ounces (about 6 tons) in January 2021. This is the highest monthly total sales since December 2009 and the strongest January sales of the century so far.

From January alone, enthusiasm is still high, mainly due to the expected US dollar water release at the beginning of the year. But from the domestic consumption market, the recent private investment demand of gold bars is not very high. Although the recent gold price is in the stage of high falling, there are not many long-term investment customers who dare to operate at high level. After all, in the uncertain situation, the probability of high price closing is very high.

Where will the price of precious metals go in the post epidemic era

1. lack of investment demand

After the peak investment in 2020, the heat intensity of precious metals gradually decreases. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expected recovery of the economy from the epidemic intensified, and the possibility of real interest rate rise.

The expectation of investment funds outflow from gold ETF is increasing, and the position of domestic gold ETF is affected by the strong exchange rate and other factors.

2. closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets, including the recent surge in commodity markets and so-called competitive bitcoin, have dispersed investors’ demand for gold.

It is expected that the space of precious metals will narrow down, and the main focus in the later period is whether the turning point of the basic plane will come.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of o-benzene plunged from a high level in March, and the price of o-benzene dropped three times in a row. In March, the price of o-benzene dropped by 1100 yuan / ton. As of March 31, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5400.00 yuan / ton, down 16.92% compared with 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1).

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene fluctuated in March, the overall market of mixed xylene was strong, and the price of mixed xylene remained high. In March, the price of o-xylene dropped by 1100 yuan / ton. Correspondingly, the price of mixed xylene remained high, the theoretical profit of o-xylene was negative, and the decline space of o-xylene price was infinitely reduced. As of March 31, the price of mixed xylene was 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and that of o-xylene was 5400 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of o-xylene increased, while the downward pressure of o-xylene remained, and the upward momentum increased.

Port inventory hit a new high in recent years

In 2021, affected by the concentration of imported goods and inland ship goods, the port inventory of o-xylene in the terminal continued to grow, and the main port in East China’s o-xylene inventory exceeded 60000 tons, reaching the highest level in the past five years. According to customs statistics, the total domestic imports of o-xylene from January to February 2021 were 67300 tons, up 573% over the same period of last year. As of April 1, the external quotation of o-xylene in major Asian regions was 760-810 US dollars / ton, down sharply from 835-855 US dollars / ton in early March, with the largest drop of 95 US dollars / ton. The sharp drop of external quotation and overstock of port inventory have dragged down the continuous decline of domestic price of o-benzene.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene in business news agency, believes that in terms of cost, mixed xylene remained high in March, and the price of o-xylene continued to fall, forming a tearing market. In terms of the external market, the port’s o-benzene inventory reached a new high, the inventory backlog was serious, and the external quotation fell sharply, and the external o-benzene price fell sharply, which stimulated the domestic o-benzene price to fall. On the whole, the domestic price of o-benzene has little room to fall, but the port inventory is high, so the price of o-benzene is difficult to rise; in March, the operating rate of o-phthalic anhydride manufacturers declined, the downstream demand of o-benzene obviously declined, so the port inventory is difficult to fall, and the support for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient. In the future, the loss of o-benzene will expand, which may increase the production reduction of manufacturers, but the price of o-benzene will not rise again before the consumption of port inventory. Moreover, the main downstream product of o-benzene, o-phthalic anhydride, is impacted by naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has a greater cost advantage, and the demand for o-benzene may be further reduced in the future. The price of o-benzene is expected to be stable in the future.

The market of liquid ammonia rose sharply in March. According to the monitoring of the business association, the monthly increase of liquid ammonia was 17.16%. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was 3700-3850 yuan / ton.

In the first half of March, the liquid ammonia market was mainly stable, and the domestic supply and demand were basically balanced. With the constraints of urea price, the liquid ammonia market remained tepid. In the second half of March, the liquid ammonia market was like a rocket, and the price continued to rise. The main reason was the shortage of supply caused by frequent maintenance of large factories in the market. Many manufacturers in different regions in China carried out maintenance one after another, which gradually spread from the shortage of regional supply to the shortage of national supply, In Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Shaanxi, there are large factories overhauling, especially in Northeast China, two of which are overhauling. In addition, some factories in Shandong stop selling liquid ammonia for their own use, and the market shortage leads to continuous price rise, especially in the latter half of the year. Basically, the price rises every day, with a range of 50-100. In addition, due to the impact of urea price rise, the price of urea has increased since March In the case of India’s urea bidding in June, the price of domestic urea continued to rise when the domestic urea export was good. The addition of urea at the same time meant the reduction of liquid ammonia, especially in the areas with ammonia shortage. The demand side is rigid and stable. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the downstream replenishment increases, and the supply exceeds the demand, which leads to the continuous sharp surge of liquid ammonia.

Urea price trend chart

In terms of urea, urea rose intensively in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring of the business society, urea rose by nearly 5% from March 15 to 31. On the one hand, foreign trade led domestic trade procurement, large factories frequently repaired urea, and the domestic market inventory was also at a low level. Although some light storage sources were released at the beginning of April, the operating rate of Inner Mongolia plants continued to decline due to the impact of double control, and the market expected to have a negative impact on domestic supply The effect is still obvious. It is expected that the short-term urea price will strengthen or continue to break through, and will seek a balance between export and domestic supply.

Map of price trend of map

Price trend of DAP

As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it is generally consolidated at a high point, and the rising trend is weak. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 3.36% in March, while the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 8.32%. It can be seen that the downstream is still weak. The price rise of the upstream may further affect the profits of the downstream. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period. With the end of spring cultivation and fertilizer preparation, the agricultural demand continues to weaken It is expected that the high price of raw materials may further lead to the decline of demand.

In the future, the business community believes that the current shortage of liquid ammonia supply may be alleviated in the near future. After the Qingming Festival, the news of plant start-up will be released, large plants in Henan may resume production after the festival, and the plant in Chongqing will resume production in mid April. In addition, the delivery of goods in Northeast China will also increase, and the supply is expected to increase slowly in the near future. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may reach the top at present.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic spandex market has continued to rise since August 10, 2020. Take 40d as an example, as of March 5, 2021, the highest point is 69600 yuan / ton, with an increase of 123.79%, reaching a new high in nearly 10 years. The average price of 40d is 67600 yuan / ton. At present, the market is selling goods at low prices, and all parties have more panic about the future market. Spandex industry started around 90%, high level operation, part of the fine denier factory supply is still tight, manufacturers continue to hand over orders, but the new order follow-up carefully. Inventory is still at a low level, although a small rebound in individual manufacturers inventory, but the overall market trend remains high.

Current market price of spandex (yuan / ton)

20D, 30D , 40D

Zhejiang: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Jiangsu Province: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

The price of PTMEG in the raw material market is high. At present, the 1800 molecular weight supply is around 40000 yuan / ton offered by the mainstream factory, and 35000-42000 yuan / ton is referred for the actual order negotiation. About 80% of the PTMEG industry started operation and maintained stable operation. In April, there will be more unit maintenance, including 135000 tons in Jiaxing Xiaoxing, 60000 tons in Hangzhou Sanlong and 50000 tons in Xinjiang Meike, 60000 tons in Panjin Changchun, and 40000 tons in Yizheng Dalian. The pure MDI market continued to decline, with traders accompanying the shipment. The current market negotiation is around 23000 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

The start-up of the downstream market remains normal. The start-up level of the circular knitting machine market in Xiaoshao, Zhejiang, Changshu, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong is about 60%, 50%, 50% and 70% respectively.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the current high level of spandex market is adjusted, the start-up of manufacturers’ devices is maintained at a high level, and the supply of goods in the market is stabilized. The terminal demand in April has attracted much attention, which involves the seasonal fabric conversion. Downstream customers are slightly cautious in taking goods. According to the order follow-up situation, the overall market trading atmosphere is cautious. The cost side support effect is also slightly weakened, and it is expected that the spandex market will be stable and weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

Nylon price chart

According to the statistics of business news agency, as of March 30, the DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 19280 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton or 0.42% from the beginning of March; the price of nylon POY was 16875 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton or 0.15%; the price of nylon FDY was 19450 yuan / ton, down 225 yuan / ton or 1.14%. In May and March, domestic nylon filament prices were mainly adjusted, from a small rise at the beginning of the month to a stable in the middle of the month, and then to a small decline at the end of the month.

Affected by the decline of upstream industrial chain products, the price of nylon is difficult to support. In March, the domestic market of nylon upstream product cyclohexanone dropped significantly, the product prices of downstream caprolactam factories fell, the market confidence weakened, the manufacturers’ purchasing rhythm slowed down, and the cyclohexanone enterprises sold at a profit. The domestic market of PA6 fell from a high level, and the spot price has been pulled back. In the early stage, PA6 was boosted by the tightening supply of the international crude oil and chemical industry chain. At present, the supply side is more abundant than before, and the downstream plants buy as they use, so the purchasing enthusiasm is not good.

Because the price of nylon is at a high level, the downstream manufacturers basically take the goods just as needed, the atmosphere at both ends of supply and marketing is light, and the actual trading is not much. Factory shipment is slow, inventory has an increasing trend, domestic and foreign sales are relatively weak in the early stage.

3、 Future forecast:

After a bold price increase in February, the domestic nylon market experienced a smooth transition in March. Due to the expected decline of raw material cost support, insufficient support at the cost side and limited order support, once the support for raw material cost collapsed, nylon filament could not be spared. Nylon prices are expected to move downward in the short term.