Commodity index: the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 95.14 on May 25, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 12.72% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.83% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
The monitoring found that from May 2021 to now, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend: on the 1st, the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton, on the 25th, the mainstream price was 1760 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of 2.33%. Among them, the main influencing factor is the rise of raw material prices.
Industrial chain: upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: business data show that since May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China has shown a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was about 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price was temporarily stable. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches is high, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the recent increase in enterprise maintenance, hydrochloric acid supply is tight, downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid is still impacting the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is greater. Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 240 yuan / ton. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price of polyaluminum chloride was generally increased this month due to the rising prices of hydrochloric acid and calcium powder.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. Since May, the LPG market has experienced twists and turns, with an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on the 5th was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on the 25th was 4223.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, during the period, the highest price was 4306.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4150 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 3.64%.
Downstream demand: the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride still has little change. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions of this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements on the environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental inspection, many industries have stopped production from time to time for rectification, and many enterprises need rectification. There should be a certain demand for environmental protection products in terms of environmental protection. Water treatment products are limited due to their application, Compared with atmospheric emissions, the demand for purification products may be slightly lower. According to a number of enterprises, this year’s demand has been average, strict environmental inspection, repeated production stoppage and rectification, enterprises are under great pressure, and small enterprises may be eliminated. So far this month, the production is normal, the inventory is high, and the demand has not changed effectively.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in the future, under the current situation of general demand and sufficient inventory, the price change of polyaluminum chloride mainly depends on the cost of raw materials. Due to maintenance and other reasons, the supply of raw material manufacturers is tight, and the price has increased, so the subsequent small rise of polyaluminum chloride is still possible.
| Sulfamic acid |