1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of September, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1260 yuan / ton. On September 14, the average market price of petroleum coke was 1367.7 yuan / ton, with an increase of 8.55% and a year-on-year increase of 9.75%. On September 13, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 103.66, unchanged with yesterday, down 33.38% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), and 54.97% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Local refining petroleum coke market atmosphere is more active, prices have been rising, the main reason is the shortage of petroleum coke resources. The recent rise of petroleum coke is good, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the current inventory remains low. Low sulfur coke resources are scarce, the price is stable and upward, medium and high sulfur coke resources are relatively limited, and the market price is rising. Some refineries have reduced production, aluminum enterprises have considerable profits, supporting the price rise of medium and high sulfur coke.

Upstream: the short-term selling pressure of oil price is aggravated by many negative effects of the market. In the near future, the price may remain low, and it is not ruled out that the price will continue to fall. In the medium and long term, the impact of the epidemic may last for a long time. The recovery prospects of major economies will be hit, and the fuel demand may fall into a downturn for a long time. On the contrary, due to the decline of OPEC + production scale, crude oil will continue to decline Supply pressure will continue to increase, and crude oil may enter the game of supply and demand rebalancing in the future.

Downstream: in recent years, the general trend of glass spot market is general, the delivery speed of production enterprises has little change, the market transaction is stable, and the market sentiment is slightly loose. Generally speaking, in the process of traditional consumption peak season, the demand of terminal market presents rigid characteristics. At present, domestic real estate construction decoration orders are mainly increased, while export orders are limited. The acceptance of glass spot price by downstream real estate enterprises has increased by a certain extent compared with last month. At the same time, traders’ social inventory has also been reduced to a certain extent recently, and the purchase of original glass pieces has returned to the normal level and speed. In recent years, due to the rising price of petroleum coke, the profit margin of downstream carbon has shrunk, or it mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 36th week of 2020 (9.7-9.11), including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are dimethyl ether (6.02%), methanol (4.64%) and steam coal (2.92%). There were 8 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were WTI crude oil (- 6.21%), Brent crude oil (- 6.09%), asphalt (- 4.39%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

Oil coke market was affected by tight supply of petroleum coke resources. Delaying the operating rate of petroleum coke or maintaining a low level will be good for the formation of petroleum coke, but the decline of crude oil will be detrimental to the gasoline and diesel market, which may restrict the formation of petroleum coke. But overall, the petroleum coke market is still in a good situation in the short term, and the specific demand of downstream market.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market was stronger in the first ten days of September, with all models of products rising to a certain extent. As of Friday, September 11, the average price quoted by PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 20050.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.43% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market was stagnant in August, and the price fluctuation was not large, and the prices in some regions were slightly lower. In the first ten days of September, the domestic inventory pressure has slightly eased. According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of Friday, September 11, the international adipic acid price has recovered, with an average price of 6660.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.52% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. However, the market demand performance is still relatively flat, the market supply pressure is afraid to continue, most dealers follow the market, the transaction atmosphere is still at a weak level, market people are cautious, dealers light inventory operation. The price of pure benzene is relatively flat in the near future, and its support to the downstream adipic acid is general. Crude oil’s periodic weakness added to the uncertainty of pure benzene market, adipic acid is expected to maintain the finishing market in the short term.

The upstream adipic acid generally supported the cost of PA66, and the domestic spot price of PA66 continued to rise in the first ten days of September. Recently, the domestic PA66 operating rate has not changed much, and the supply of goods in the market is still slightly insufficient at this stage. It’s the traditional peak season, and the domestic automobile industry is warming up, and PA66 consumption has a trend of expansion. But from the actual transaction point of view, the market atmosphere is difficult to say strong. Orders are generally slow to follow up, which may be related to the early preparation. It is expected that the “golden nine silver ten” will still be popular when the downstream manufacturers consume inventory. At present, the low load operation of PA66 production enterprises has stabilized the price weakness caused by loose supply for nearly two years. BASF, a major international manufacturer, announced to increase the price of PA66 industrial chain products in the Asia Pacific region and enhance market confidence. Business shipment situation is fair, PA66 is expected to continue the strong trend.

Business agency analysts believe: early September domestic PA66 market trend is strong. The spot price of adipic acid in upstream slightly recovered, which supported the cost of PA66. Downstream factory inquiry and procurement just need to operate, order follow-up is slow. At present, there is less on-site supply and it is time for the traditional peak season. There is still room for improvement in the purchase and consumption of PA66. It is expected that the market situation of PA66 will be stronger in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5716.67 yuan / ton. Compared with August 15, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.58%; compared with August 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.64%. From August 1 to August 31, the maximum amplitude was 4.24%.

In the first ten days of September, n-butanol kept rising

Since the beginning of September, the domestic n-butanol market has been steadily rising. The high price of propylene is supporting the high cost of propylene. Starting from January 1, the downstream replenishment of n-butanol was positive, the market turnover improved significantly, and the transaction focus continued to move up. At present, as of the 8th, the market price of n-butanol continues to rise, the market price is concentrated in the high-end, downstream butyl ester users maintain just in need replenishment, spot procurement is more cautious than at the beginning of the month, the core demand performance is stable, and the primary market shipment is relatively smooth. At present, the cost of n-butanol is under great pressure, and most of the factories offer high prices. At present, Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation reference 5900 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton higher than September 1; Luxi Chemical n-butanol factory quotation reference 5800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of September.

The market price of n-butanol in some parts of China is attached (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Product Name: up / down on 9 / 1 / 9 / 8

N-butanol in East China 5800 6000 + 200

South China 6100 6300 + 200

North China 5800 5900 + 100

Northeast China 5600 5750 + 150

On the upstream side, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range has become more and more large. Up to the 4th, the total price of propylene has risen by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction volume in the market is between 7180 yuan / ton and 7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. As of the 8th, most of the current production enterprises have no pressure on inventory, and offer is mainly stable.

On crude oil, WTI closed for the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday (September 7), while Brent 11 contract fell $0.65/barrel at 42.01. China’s main SC crude oil futures fell 6.3 yuan / barrel to 278.6 yuan / barrel in 2010.

After the price reduction of operating rate eases the pressure of competition, the market is mainly stable

At present, the downstream demand of domestic n-butanol market is slightly weaker than that at the beginning of the month. However, it is heard that some units in Shandong will be shut down in the near future, and the short-term market competition may be reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the high-level and stable operation of n-butanol Market in recent days will be the main trend, and more attention should be paid to the supply and demand of raw materials.

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise. According to the price monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 5387 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5625 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 4.41% during the week. The price was 26.37% higher than that of the same period last month and 46.09% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, the domestic butadiene market recovered its upward trend. The favorable external market continued to rise, bringing a significant boost to the domestic market; the supply of domestic production enterprises was tight, and the quotation of Sinopec continued to rise, while the ex factory quotation of other manufacturers increased. Moreover, the export volume of northern manufacturers was limited, and the market low-cost supply was hard to find. The price of synthetic rubber increased in the middle and later period of the week, and the merchants had certain psychological expectation that the butadiene supply price of Sinopec would continue to rise. Although the transaction was followed up slowly, the market quotation was still high.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec increased the price of butadiene in East China by 300 yuan / ton, and implemented 5700 yuan / ton from September 1. Dalian Hengli butadiene plant is in stable operation. As of September 3, the listing price was 5310 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton month on month. North China brocade still has no supply online auction, and a small amount of goods were sold offline on August 31. The 70000 T / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, was restarted on September 1, and the quoted price was 5600 yuan / T as of September 3.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the market of styrene butadiene rubber rose slightly. As of September 4, the reference price of styrene butadiene rubber was 8558.33 yuan / ton, which was 3.84% higher than that on September 1 (8241.67 yuan / ton). According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current butadiene price is around 5612 yuan / ton, and the styrene price is around 5350 yuan / ton. The cost supports the styrene butadiene rubber. In the future, the cost side will drive the bullish atmosphere, and the styrene butadiene rubber market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Br: this week, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a major domestic sales company, rose by 300 yuan / ton twice. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene went up, which led to the rising atmosphere of downstream synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current butadiene price is around 5612 yuan / ton; on the other hand, due to the tight supply of cis-1,4-butadiene units of Haopu and Taijiao Yubu, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has been increased. In the future, the price of raw material butadiene is high, coupled with tight supply, it is expected that the cis-1,4-butadiene rubber market will continue to rise in the future.

At present, the positive side, the external market performance is strong, the supplier spot export is limited, synthetic rubber market is higher. On the negative side, the high price transaction was not good; some units were restarted, and the domestic total output increased. Business Club butadiene analysts expect that early next week, the supply price and market performance will be mainly high volatility.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise this week. As of the 4th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 5162.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.51% higher than 4987.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.49%. The market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise due to normal supply and demand.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, the situation of phthalic anhydride market was general, the recent downstream demand was general, the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable, the plasticizer market rose slightly, and the trend of phthalic anhydride price rose. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started to decline. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride was about 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride decreased slightly. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchased on demand. The on-the-spot trading rose. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose slightly, and the high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene process was 4900-5000 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 5100-5200 yuan / ton, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride was still in the market, the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise.

This week, the domestic o-benzene price remained at a low level, and the floor price remained at 4400 yuan / T. the low domestic o-benzene price was a negative influence on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import o-benzene market in the port area fluctuated, and the external price of o-benzene was mainly stable. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual list was discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants had a strong wait-and-see mood, the low price of o-benzene fluctuated, and the raw material of o-benzene was o-benzene The low price is unfavorable to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

This week, the price trend of DOP market in the downstream of phthalic anhydride rose. According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic DOP price was 7000 yuan / ton as of 4 days, up 0.48% compared with 6966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The price of isooctanol in the field fluctuated at a low level. The DOP unit operated stably, the spot supply was normal, and the DOP market price increased slightly. The market of plasticizer industry is getting better. DOP market quotation is 6900-7200 yuan / ton. The transaction volume of plasticizer in the market has increased, and the downstream market has improved. Supported by the favorable conditions, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

Generally speaking, the crude oil price is mainly volatile in recent years, and the domestic o-benzene price is stable, but the domestic plasticizer industry market has improved, and the phthalic anhydride market price has continued to rise slightly.

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly volatile, but the plasticizer trading market is better, the plasticizer price is slightly higher, and the future DOP price trend has an upward trend. It is expected that the phthalic anhydride market price will rise slightly next week.