1、 Price data
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According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of September, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1260 yuan / ton. On September 14, the average market price of petroleum coke was 1367.7 yuan / ton, with an increase of 8.55% and a year-on-year increase of 9.75%. On September 13, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 103.66, unchanged with yesterday, down 33.38% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), and 54.97% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Local refining petroleum coke market atmosphere is more active, prices have been rising, the main reason is the shortage of petroleum coke resources. The recent rise of petroleum coke is good, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the current inventory remains low. Low sulfur coke resources are scarce, the price is stable and upward, medium and high sulfur coke resources are relatively limited, and the market price is rising. Some refineries have reduced production, aluminum enterprises have considerable profits, supporting the price rise of medium and high sulfur coke.
Upstream: the short-term selling pressure of oil price is aggravated by many negative effects of the market. In the near future, the price may remain low, and it is not ruled out that the price will continue to fall. In the medium and long term, the impact of the epidemic may last for a long time. The recovery prospects of major economies will be hit, and the fuel demand may fall into a downturn for a long time. On the contrary, due to the decline of OPEC + production scale, crude oil will continue to decline Supply pressure will continue to increase, and crude oil may enter the game of supply and demand rebalancing in the future.
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Downstream: in recent years, the general trend of glass spot market is general, the delivery speed of production enterprises has little change, the market transaction is stable, and the market sentiment is slightly loose. Generally speaking, in the process of traditional consumption peak season, the demand of terminal market presents rigid characteristics. At present, domestic real estate construction decoration orders are mainly increased, while export orders are limited. The acceptance of glass spot price by downstream real estate enterprises has increased by a certain extent compared with last month. At the same time, traders’ social inventory has also been reduced to a certain extent recently, and the purchase of original glass pieces has returned to the normal level and speed. In recent years, due to the rising price of petroleum coke, the profit margin of downstream carbon has shrunk, or it mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 36th week of 2020 (9.7-9.11), including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are dimethyl ether (6.02%), methanol (4.64%) and steam coal (2.92%). There were 8 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were WTI crude oil (- 6.21%), Brent crude oil (- 6.09%), asphalt (- 4.39%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.35%.
3、 Future forecast
Oil coke market was affected by tight supply of petroleum coke resources. Delaying the operating rate of petroleum coke or maintaining a low level will be good for the formation of petroleum coke, but the decline of crude oil will be detrimental to the gasoline and diesel market, which may restrict the formation of petroleum coke. But overall, the petroleum coke market is still in a good situation in the short term, and the specific demand of downstream market.
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