I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of Friday (October 25), the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream area is 6350 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with Friday, the price in the mainstream area is basically the same, and the overall operation of n-butanol is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is around 6300-6800 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the n-butanol market is in stable operation as a whole. Due to the expectation of restart of some devices, the atmosphere of spot negotiation in the n-butanol market shows slight signs of fading. The mainstream factory shipments are stable. The downstream users are a little less confident in the later trend. The wait-and-see mood is heavy. The implementation of the contract is mainly long, and the core users are mostly just in need of procurement. The short-term sales pressure of n-butanol in Shandong market is relatively small. This week, the market volume is large, the plant load is reduced, the inventory and sales pressure are relieved in the short term, the focus of the factory shipment negotiation is stable as a whole, supporting the market to make firm offers. At present, this week, Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. delivered 6400 yuan / ton from Shandong, 6650 yuan / ton from East China and 6800 yuan / ton from South China.

Industry chain: the overall price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been stable this week, and the market price of propylene in Shandong has been stable. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the market mentality of propylene has improved. Although the downstream products are still in a downward trend, the overall profit margin is acceptable, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased. Macroscopically, the price of propylene is mainly stable and has strong desire to rebound. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to recover in the near future.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis by the data analyst of the business agency, affected by the market sentiment of crude oil rising, the downstream purchasing situation has improved significantly, and it is expected that the overall price of propylene market will rise slightly in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since the beginning of this week (10.21), the domestic methanol market has been in a “dive”. As of October 24, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2100 yuan / ton, down 10.64% in the week. Prices fell 4.89% month on month and 34.38% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: in the domestic market, due to the limited delivery in Northwest China last week, the methanol market price in Northwest China fell sharply at the beginning of this week, and the market was full of bearish sentiment. At present, the downstream receiving mood is still poor, and the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth. Other markets are mainly in decline, and the on-site trading is light. Methanol futures continued to decline, with fluctuations in the port market, trading in the region is limited, mainly wait-and-see. In terms of units, one 300000 t / a methanol unit in Inner Mongolia is under restart, one 600000 T / a methanol unit is under shutdown for maintenance, and one 600000 T / a unit in Shaanxi is planned to be under short-term maintenance, and there is no significant change in other aspects.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is declining steadily, the raw material methanol market continues to weaken, the cost side is hard to find support, the environmental protection supervision is continuing, the demand side is low, and some parts are still weak, but the inventory of some other enterprises is not high, and they intend to stabilize the price.

Impact of formaldehyde on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde of the business association, the price change trend of methanol and formaldehyde is basically the same, and formaldehyde market has a negative impact on methanol market.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market generally fell. At present, the operation of main acetic acid plants in China is stable, and the supply side is relatively loose. Although most manufacturers intend to stabilize the price, under the background that Shandong major enterprises reduce the price sharply again today, the downstream users still keep the price down, other suppliers passively follow the decline, and the mainstream market around the country falls. Spot transactions are just in need, while the current industry operating rate is at a high level, which is expected to be weak later.

Influence of acetic acid on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and acetic acid in the business association, the price change trend and range of the two are basically the same. The acetic acid market is light, and the methanol market will also be affected by the negative under the condition of low downstream demand.

Dimethyl ether: the market price of dimethyl ether continued to be stable, some manufacturers slightly reduced, the overall market trading atmosphere was tepid, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers remained. The average price of DME in North China is 3521 yuan / ton, which is 9 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous working day. The price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province decreased slightly, with a range of about 30-50 yuan / ton, and the price in other regions was mainly stable. The market price of dimethyl ether in China has remained stable as a whole, but there is no lack of stable operation. Most manufacturers give up profits and take away goods. At present, the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is relatively light, the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, the market demand is not high, the operators hold a stable wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high. The upstream methanol market is still sluggish today, and the cost support of DME market is weak. Although the crude oil market rebounded, the favorable factors are not enough, and the demand may be warmer in the later stage. It is expected that the domestic market of DME will keep stable in the short term.

Influence of dimethyl ether on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether of the business association, the price change trend of the two is slightly different since the beginning of this week (10.21). The market of dimethyl ether has a positive impact on the future market of methanol.

III. future forecast

Business club point of view: in the later stage, Inner Mongolia and other places continue to sell at low prices; downstream delivery is cautious. Macro and crude oil operation is mainly weak, the phenomenon of high port inventory is hard to disappear, the traditional downstream demand tends to shrink, some MTO devices in Shandong are planned to be overhauled, although the price of Northwest upstream enterprises has been greatly reduced, but the water is still rising seriously at present, the methanol analysts of the business community predict that China’s methanol market or weak consolidation is mainly.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic caprolactam market was down in mid October. On October 10, the average market price of caprolactam was 12800 / T, and on October 20, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12500 / T, with a 2.34% drop in price. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on October 22 is 63.21, which is flat with yesterday, 36.79% lower than the highest point of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 8.68% higher than the lowest point of 58.16 on May 16, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of caprolactam began to fall in mid October. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton. Cash is delivered out of the factory. The first and second phase units are in normal operation, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 12700 yuan / ton, which is delivered upon acceptance, and 450000 tons of caprolactam units are in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 13300 yuan / ton. The unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance.

Industry chain: the domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of cyclohexanone fell 10.99% month on month and 39.23% year on year. In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. In case of oversupply, the downstream PA6 chips will be reduced to inventory. The cost of slicing is loose, the pressure of polymerization cost is increasing, and the market weakness has not changed.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to caprolactam analysts of the business club, after the National Day holiday, the raw material price fell sharply, the downstream demand decreased, the pressure of caprolactam shipment increased under the upstream and downstream constraints, the liquid price began to decline, and the solid price fell with the liquid price. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam in the later period will slow down the downward trend of prices.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China last week was 2233 yuan / ton, and on October 22, the average price of nitric acid in East China fell by 20.90%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline. On October 22, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1600 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the quotation last week; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1700 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the quotation last week; Shandong helitai quoted 2000 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the quotation last week. On October 21, Anhui Audley offered 1750 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last week’s offer; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 2200 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week’s offer. The nitric acid market is sluggish, the demand is light, and the manufacturers continue to reduce their prices.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material in the upstream of nitric acid, has seen a slight decline in the domestic liquid ammonia Market, with a drop of 0.52% in the week of 18th. Most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of which were 50-100 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong Province maintained a stable decline, some of which were 50 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

The demand for nitric acid market is low, and the nitric acid analysts of the business association think that the nitric acid market may continue to be weak, but there is limited space for downward adjustment.

I. price trend:

On October 19, crude benzene commodity index was 63.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.54% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.78% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

This week (10.14-10.18), the domestic crude benzene market fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 4118.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 4080 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.94%.

Domestic market: this week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton. The market was bearish, and prices in the main production areas fell on Thursday. As for the market, as of Friday, the mainstream price in Shanxi is 3750-3800 yuan / ton, and in Shandong is 3990 yuan / ton. At present, the market is lack of good support, and businesses are still bearish.

Industry chain: crude oil: the overall international oil price rose first and then fell this week, with great volatility. Oil prices rose sharply last week as Iranian oil tankers attacked. In the later period, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth expectations and the increase of us oil product storage, which increased market worries and led to a sharp drop in oil prices. WTI was down 0.35% and Brent was up 0.54% compared with last Friday (October 11). Pure benzene: this week, the pure benzene market has a strong bearish atmosphere. The coking industry continues to break new lows. In addition, some downstream maintenance in East China and North China has greatly reduced the demand. The pure benzene market continues to decline.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, oil prices will continue to be low consolidation, the market bearish atmosphere is heavy. In terms of pure benzene, there are many overhauls and weak demand in North China market; in terms of some downstream units overhauls, the market support is weak, the trend of downstream products is weak, and the fundamentals are lack of comprehensive consideration. It is expected that the weak trend of crude benzene market will continue next week.