Price Trend

The propane market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3605 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 3582.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.62%, 25.3% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market is mainly narrow adjustment, the market turnover atmosphere is general. As of August 9, the propane self-use of Dongming Petrochemical Company in Shandong Province was suspended, while the production of Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company in Sinopec was suspended for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 3800 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3580 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3620 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 3630 yuan/ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 3600 yuan/ton./ Tons. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3750 yuan/ton, the average price of the weekend was 3766.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.44%, and the price fell by 12.81% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (Shandong) fell continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic propylene market was 7875 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 7531 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.37%, 20.55% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane. With the introduction of CP in August, the import cost has not changed much compared with last month, and has little impact on the market. Spot prices of international crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas fell this week, with a bearish market mentality and a general trading atmosphere. However, manufacturers have a clear price-fixing mentality, mostly adjusting slightly according to their own conditions, and the overall price stability is the main factor. At present, the weather is hot, the demand side is difficult to improve, downstream more on-demand procurement, the overall purchase and sale is stable.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the introduction of CPs price in August has little change compared with last month, has little impact on the market, and the demand has not improved significantly in the short term, but the manufacturers’price-fixing mentality is obvious, and it is expected to continue the cross-market adjustment next week.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the PA66 market was in general in the second week of August, and the quotation was weak. As of August 8, the average price of viscous injection grade mainstream offer in PA66 was about 25350.00 yuan/ton, which was 2.50% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

Products: PA66 upstream adipic acid market rebounded at the end of the month, prices rebounded. In August, the market atmosphere was slightly stalemate, trading was normal, and the market was calm and tidy. This week, there was a strong atmosphere of on-site wait-and-see, and TRADERS’quotations were firm. Downstream follow-up is general, stock enthusiasm is flat, buy on demand is the main. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable and balanced, and the recent market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment; at the end of last month, Qixiang Tengda and China Chemical Group jointly invested in the establishment of the Tianchen Qixiang. The technology of direct hydrocyanidation of butadiene to adiponitrile, which was independently developed, was announced publicly, and passed the appraisal of scientific and technological achievements of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation as early as 2015, which will break the foreign monopoly of adiponitrile technology. The production capacity expansion of adiponitrile, an important intermediate in the production of PA66 engineering plastics, has become a foregone conclusion, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced by the support of adiponitrile in the future. It is expected that China’s PA66 market will be a long-term impact.

Demand: At present, domestic PA66 chip spot supply is abundant, downstream factories continue to weaken. The market is depressed in buying gas. Businessmen take a hollow view. Traders follow the market. Most of the transactions are detailed.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market continues to operate weakly in the near future. This week’s Sino-US trade frictions led to the breakdown of the offshore RMB 7, which has little effect on the price increase of PA66 market. In addition, the upstream support is not good, the downstream sustained long-term demand is insufficient background, this week PA66 offer fell, the market has no good support for the time being. It is expected that PA66 will continue its weak adjustment in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been declining sharply in recent days. The average price of propylene (Shandong) enterprises last Sunday (August 4) was 7977 yuan/ton, and today (August 7) it has dropped to 7638 yuan/ton, a decline of up to 4.24%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province has been stable since August, and began to fall on the 5th day. Today, the total price of propylene enterprises has dropped by 350 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7550-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan/ton. Macroscopic market weakened further and the propylene market was short.

Industry chain: Upstream, crude oil has been declining significantly in recent days, which has a negative impact on propylene. Downstream, the recent polypropylene futures market is also not ideal, propylene or negative effect. Downstream factories just need to purchase mainly, refinery shipment pressure continues to rise, so that the mood of profit and drainage warehouse warming up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that, in general, the recent spot prices of international crude oil and PP are not ideal, downstream just needs to be purchased, and refinery shipment pressure is high. Propylene prices are expected to decline in the near future.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as shown in the figure above, copper prices have gone through an “inverted V” trend in the past month and experienced a small roller coaster. Throughout this year’s copper trend, copper is now at a lower position in the year. Since reaching its highest position in the year at the end of March, copper prices have fallen more than once, with an amplitude of 8.61%. As of August 6, copper was trading at 46146.67 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day.

According to the current copper futures table of business associations, the spot price of copper in the near future is higher than the main contract price for most of the time. The main contract price is the price of copper in the next two months. The spot price is higher than the main contract price of copper, indicating that people are not optimistic about the future price of copper.

Sino-US trade disputes continue to escalate and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar breaks the “7″

U.S. President Trump said last week that he would impose more tariffs on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth $300 billion, which, if implemented, could further reduce China’s exports by 2.7% and drag down China’s GDP growth by 50 basis points. China has vowed to fight back to end a month-long trade truce between the world’s two largest economies. The trade war will be a protracted war that will lead to the emergence of our bear market fundamentals in most commodity prices.

For the first time in more than a decade, China has allowed the renminbi to break through the 7-yuan guaranteed export data against the dollar, a sign that Beijing may be willing to allow the renminbi to weaken further, which may further exacerbate trade conflicts. Trade disputes are believed to weaken economic growth and hit demand for metals, escalating disputes and damaging market sentiment.

Weak terminal demand

Retail sales in the passenger car market fell 16% year-on-year in July from 1 to 4 weeks, significantly lower than the 5% growth rate in June to 4 weeks, according to the CRC data. Recent copper rod, copper pipe, copper sheet and foil processing industry start-up rate last year has declined to a certain extent, especially copper sheet and foil start-up rate dropped by nearly 10%, indicating poor downstream demand. The main reason for the slump in terminal consumption is that the investment in power grid, which accounts for the first proportion of consumption, dropped by 19.3% in January-June compared with the same period last year, and the start-up rate of wire and cable enterprises declined more.

Data from Citigroup Demand Tracker showed that the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing had a particularly significant impact on copper, with copper use in the world’s largest consumer shrinking sharply for the first time since 2015.

Supply is still tight

Upstream copper supply is still tight, copper processing costs continue to decline, and imports of scrap copper are limited in July 2019. In the second batch of copper scrap policies, the total amount of six kinds of copper scrap import approvals in the second batch was 124,500 tons, which was 48.2% lower than that in the first batch of 240,000 tons. The data showed that the imports of the vast majority of enterprises receiving the approvals were the same as that of last year’s average quarterly imports. However, in view of the implementation of the solid waste import ban at the end of 2020, the classification of resources is still under discussion. The key is whether the brass can be imported or not. There is not much suspense about dividing copper into resource categories. Assuming that brass can not enter the Chinese market, there will be a gap of nearly 300,000-400,000 tons of metal.

In summary, in the case of relatively loose supply, consumption off-season and macro-economy can not support a sharp rise in copper prices, macro-negative, short-term copper prices are not optimistic, and the expected price fluctuation is between 44,000 and 48,000 yuan/ton.

Price trends:

The price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in July, according to data from business associations. As of July 31, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 6 033.33 yuan/ton, which was 5 100.00 yuan/ton compared with that quoted by acetic anhydride at the beginning of the month, with an increase of 18.30%. The price of acetic anhydride fell by 15.77% compared with that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In July, the domestic acetic anhydride ex-factory quotation rose sharply, and the market transaction price rose. As of July 31, most of the region’s ex-factory quotation is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price has risen, the market quotation is the reference price, and the actual transaction price is based on actual negotiation. Hualu Hengsheng acetic anhydride equipment parking, Henan Ronghua chemical acetic anhydride parking, Huzhou acetic anhydride factory equipment maintenance, Jiachi chemical acetic anhydride equipment parking, acetic anhydride factory equipment start-up rate low maintenance, factory inventory is limited, acetic anhydride downstream sales situation is general, starting in mid-late July, acetic anhydride factory parking maintenance, short supply of acetic anhydride. Lack of acetic anhydride, sufficient momentum to rise. However, with the end of equipment overhaul of acetic anhydride manufacturers, the start-up rate of acetic anhydride equipment has increased, the price of acetic anhydride is bound to fall, and the momentum for the rise of acetic anhydride in the future is insufficient.

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

As can be seen from the chart, acetic acid experienced a short period of price inflation in July, which was mainly caused by the explosion of Yima Gasification Plant in Henan Province. The explosion in Henan Yima Gasification Plant led to a sharp rise in the price of acetic acid, which supported the rise of acetic anhydride. At the same time, the explosion caused the state to intensify the inspection of production safety, which had an impact on the equipment production of chemical enterprises, resulting in a sharp rise in acetic acid prices. However, due to the general demand for acetic acid in the near future, the overall supply of acetic acid is sufficient, and the momentum for acetic acid to rise is insufficient, acetic acid has not formed a sustained upward momentum, and the pressure for acetic acid to fall in the future is greater. The price of acetic acid declined in the future, which made the market of acetic anhydride more bearish.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business associations, believes that the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in July, mainly due to two factors: the low start-up rate of acetic anhydride equipment and the insufficient supply of acetic anhydride, which led to a sharp rise in prices; the explosion in Yima, Henan Province, which caused a sharp rise in acetic anhydride prices, and the rise in raw material prices. In terms of demand, acetic anhydride demand is general, customers purchase on demand, high-price acetic anhydride resistance psychology is greater, acetic anhydride market is negative. In the future, the price of acetic acid began to decline, the cost of acetic anhydride lost its support, and the pressure of future decline increased. Last weekend, Hualu Hengsheng Shengsheng acetic anhydride equipment was repaired and restarted. The acetic anhydride equipment of other enterprises in the future will also start construction one after another. The supply of acetic anhydride will gradually increase, the shortage of acetic anhydride supply will be alleviated, and acetic anhydri Support, the downward pressure of the future market increased. In summary, the future market of acetic anhydride has limited space to rise, and it is expected that the future market of acetic anhydride will mainly fall.