According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (4.13-4.17), with an average market price of 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.44%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, as Shaanxi is the main production area, the operating rate of enterprises remains at a high level, which leads to the continuous accumulation of enterprise inventory. On the demand side, it is currently in the traditional off-season, and the purchasing willingness of downstream industries such as automobiles and 3C is relatively low. Most of them adopt the strategy of replenishing inventory with small orders according to demand, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction volume. Meanwhile, there has been no significant improvement in export orders, further weakening the support of market demand for magnesium prices.
Raw material end
Recently, the price of ferrosilicon has experienced a slight decline, while the price of dolomite has remained stable, which has led to a decrease in the overall cost of magnesium smelting. The reduction in costs further weakens the support for magnesium prices, providing space for a downward trend in magnesium prices.
comprehensive forecast
Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis, it is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile downward trend next week. Among them, the integer level of 17000 yuan/ton will become a key support level. If this support level is breached, magnesium prices will further drop to around 16800 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is little opportunity for a significant rebound in magnesium prices. It is only possible for sporadic replenishment downstream to drive a slight technical recovery in prices, but the rebound height is expected to not exceed 17250 yuan/ton. In the subsequent market observation, it is necessary to focus on the changes in the operating rate of enterprises in the main production areas and the timing of downstream centralized replenishment, which will have a significant impact on the trend of magnesium prices.
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