Trade Name: Phenol

East China Market (June 12): 7400 yuan/ton

Main points of analysis: crude oil fell, cost was low, market psychology was under pressure, domestic phenol market weakness was not adjusted, further decline. The market quotations of each district continue to bottom out. The downstream terminal enterprises are not very interested in buying. They just need to follow up. Holders are not lack of pressure when they move goods. The gravity of some low-frequency image pressure shows a downward trend, and it is difficult for them to release volume. Business associations expect the domestic phenol Market to continue its downward trend, and the market may continue to bottom out. The market price of phenol in East China refers to 7400-7450 yuan/ton.

On June 10, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 107.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.56% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 100.32% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose on the 11th. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 1,1830 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is tight at present. Recently, the market situation of hydrofluoric acid has improved. Due to the higher raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have raised the ex-factory price, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is on the rise. Rise. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11500-12000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of trichloromethane in China has been running steadily this week, and the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong has remained around 2930 yuan/ton.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: This week, the domestic trichloromethane market has been running steadily, the supply side and demand side are weak, and the overall supply and demand balance in the industry. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 2980 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 4000 yuan/ton; and that in Jiangxi is about 3600 yuan/ton. In terms of start-up, about 50% of the Jinling chemical plant was started; Jinmao in Dongying was scheduled to be overhauled until the end of June; 60% of the chemical plant in Luxi was started; the science and culture plant in Jiangsu was started normally; and the science and culture plant in Jiangxi was running normally.

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the domestic methanol market declined weakly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2228 yuan/ton, with a drop of 3.05% in the weekend and 20.64% in the same period last year. The supply of liquid chlorine market was tight, the downstream market demand was weak, and the overall performance of the industry was stable, with enterprises reporting an overrun of 400-700 yuan/ton. On the downstream side, domestic R22 refrigerant prices remained stable this week, and the market trading environment was relatively general. Now the company quotes 18500-19000 yuan per ton for bulk water.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 22nd week of 2019 (6.3-6.7), there were 16 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities rose, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were epichlorohydrin (14.56%), dichloromethane (2.65%) and sulfuric acid (2.47%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products with the first three declines are organosilicon DMC (-7.21%), light soda (-4.31%) and phosphate rock (-3.65%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that there is still a big gap in the supply side of the trichloromethane market, but the downstream market demand is not good, the trading atmosphere is flat, and the trichloromethane market is expected to operate steadily in the near future.

Price Trend

Aniline prices in Shandong and Nanjing remained stable this week at around 5600-5950 yuan per ton, according to a large list of business associations.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: Earlier this week, due to the positive impact of last week’s inventory decline data in East China Port, the overall market climate improved. As the price of crude oil began to fall sharply in the end of the day, the trading atmosphere of the whole market turned to light and the focus of the negotiations moved down. However, the overall price of pure benzene is strong, and the price of external market is high, which has certain support for the domestic market spot. This week, the mainstream price of pure benzene in the domestic market is around 4300-4500 yuan/ton.

Products: This week, the domestic aniline Market is stable and prices remain stable. Although the international oil price has fallen sharply, the aniline market continues to hold up.

Downstream: This week, MDI overall showed a downward trend, falling by 2.76%.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: Next week’s pure benzene market will be affected by crude oil prices or continue to be weak.

Nanjing chemical aniline plant was delayed to restart, which supported the price of aniline.

The aniline Market is expected to continue to operate weakly and steadily next week.

Price Trend

In May, the cyclohexanone market showed a sharp decline. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic market price of cyclohexanone was 10366 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8600 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price fell 17.04% in the month, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market showed a sharp decline in May, the market rose at the end of the month, but the downstream demand is poor and the boost is weak. During the month, the market price of cyclohexanone in East China dropped from 10,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 8,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, traders increased slightly to 8,950 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of support from chemical fiber demand, the price dropped to 8,800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of January, Shandong Luxi and Shandong Haili exported cyclohexanone one after another, and the overall spot supply increased. Late in the month, Yangmei Fengxi temporarily stopped and restarted, Yangmei Taihua temporarily reduced its load and raised its load, Jining Zhongyin Yuejie stopped, Shandong Luxi plant was abnormal, and export volume decreased. In the month before May Day and the week before May Day holidays, the demand for downstream chemical fibers was only normal production of Hengyi caprolactam plant. The Yongrong cyclohexanone plant was restarted around May 25. The load of the plant was gradually increased, and the shortage of cyclohexanone was gradually reduced. Generally speaking, the demand for cyclohexanone in the chemical fiber market in May is far less than that in April. The demand for cyclohexanone is difficult to form a boost because of the small consumption of solvent in the market.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Pure Benzene price fluctuations in the month up. Earlier this month, the impact of Tehrer’s comments in the United States, commodity prices and oil prices fell, leading to a weakening of the focus of pure benzene, East China once fell below 4400 yuan per ton. In mid-month, Hengli’s shipment tended to be stable, which compensated for the reduction in maintenance of Northwest equipment. The price of East China remained stable near 4500 yuan/ton. In late January, the decline of port stocks gave the market an opportunity to speculate. Meanwhile, the large increase in external prices also supported the domestic pure benzene rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally and the cost support is relatively stable. In June, the spot of cyclohexanone will increase, and the demand of downstream chemical fiber market is still on the low side. Generally speaking, the supply of cyclohexanone will exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the short-term market for cyclohexanone to remain weak.