Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October
Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
In October, aluminum ingots followed the overall strong operation of non-ferrous metals, which was greatly affected by macro factors to a certain extent.
The recent positive news is as follows:
The game between China and the United States: the United States expands the coverage of high tariffs&the United States imposes additional fees on specific ships, while China imposes special port fees on American ships. (Not directly impacting aluminum exports, affecting expectations).
Policy benefits: Shanghai’s intelligent terminal industry plan and Q4 may introduce consumer stimulus measures (for automobiles and home appliances) to boost demand for high-end aluminum materials.
Overview of October Fundamentals
On the production capacity side, the operating capacity is 44.165 million tons (stable at a high level), and the newly added capacity (280000 tons to be started in Xinjiang) is basically offset by the reduced production (400000 tons in Qinghai Zhonglv and 4.31 million tons in Shandong Weiqiao).
On the cost side, the price of alumina has declined (Guangxi market price is 3030 yuan/ton), pre baked anodes remain stable at 5055 yuan/ton, and thermal coal has slightly rebounded (Q5500 average price is 589 yuan/ton), indicating weak overall cost support.
Changes in aluminum structure: The proportion of aluminum water direct alloying has increased to 73.9%, and the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery products is less than 27%, highlighting the phenomenon of “shortage of ingots” in spot goods.
Demand side: demand differentiation, strong demand resilience for new energy vehicles (with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for passenger cars in September) and new energy cables (with aluminum rod processing fees maintained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton in Guangdong); Weakness in the building materials industry (Foshan aluminum rod inventory of 62100 tons continues to accumulate)
Inventory change: Social inventory has been reduced. As of October 16th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 615000 tons, which basically consumed the accumulated inventory during the holiday. It is close to 614000 tons on September 25th, and 19000 tons have been reduced from 634000 tons on October 9th.
Stay tuned for the future market
Under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities is relatively strong, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4020 yuan/ton. In early October, DMF prices showed a weak and stable operation, with a focus on stable but weak negotiations. Insufficient demand suppressed price increases, and the overall price of DMF fell by 0.5% in the first half of the month.
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: On October 16th, the benchmark price of DMF in Shengyi Society was 4020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month (4040 yuan/ton). The delivery price of bulk water in Shandong and North China markets is concentrated between 3770-3850 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable but weak, and insufficient demand is suppressing price increases. Currently, the overall DMF market is operating steadily but weakly.
Supply and demand relationship: Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs, inventory consumption is slow, and the number of new customers is limited. Currently, the overall operating rate of DMF industry is less than 40%, and the contradiction of oversupply continues. Some capacity expansion projects have been put on hold.
In terms of cost, domestic coal to methanol project approvals are becoming stricter, coke oven gas routes are affected by steel production cuts, Iran’s unstable natural gas supply is causing delays in new production capacity, green methanol has become a new demand highlight due to the International Maritime Organization’s zero emission policy, and MTO plant restarts and some downstream new production support demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts believe that in early October, the DMF market showed a stable to weak trend, with a slight decline in prices and an unresolved supply-demand imbalance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand and industry adjustments on prices.

Recently (10.1-10.14), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of nitrile rubber was 16550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from 16600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, the fundamentals of nitrile rubber have been weak, and the nitrile rubber market is mainly weak. As of October 14th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 16200-16200 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for nitrile 3665 in Russia is around 15800-16000 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17300 to 17400 yuan/ton.
Recently (10.1-10.14), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have significantly decreased, and the cost support for nitrile rubber has weakened significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of butadiene was 8446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.95% from 8886 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 14th, the price of acrylonitrile was 7866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from the price of 7983 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (10.1-10.14), the overall production of nitrile rubber plants in China has been at a high level; As of October 14th, the overall production of nitrile rubber in China is around 9.1%.
During the long holiday, the downstream production of nitrile rubber hoses in China decreased to around 4.4%, and the production of insulation foam decreased to a low of around 4.3%. The overall demand for nitrile rubber downstream was average, which dragged down the nitrile rubber market.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the cost support for nitrile rubber is currently weak; The low downstream production and high nitrile rubber production have a negative impact on nitrile rubber. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

The price of acrylic acid this week was on October 14th, and the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). Based on the prices of the past year, its current price of 7183.33 yuan/ton is at the median level, with room for further increase.
1、 Market performance
The most striking feature of the current market is the sharp contrast in price trends between acrylic acid and its main raw material, propylene. However, the price of acrylic acid ignored the weakness of costs and emerged from an independent upward trend. This’ deviation ‘clearly tells us that the core driving force of the current market is not from costs, but from its own supply and demand pattern.
Supply side:
The price of raw material propylene not only continues to decline, but also approaches the lowest level in a year. As of October 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6375.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). This clearly indicates that from a cost perspective, the support for acrylic acid is significantly weakening, and even forming a drag. If analyzed solely from a cost perspective, acrylic acid should bear downward pressure.
Demand side:
Order locking, tight stock: The factory is busy delivering early orders, which means that current production and shipment have been locked in contracts. This directly leads to a shortage of spot resources available for free circulation in the market. When supply is “locked” by pre demand, even if costs decrease, sellers lack the pressure and willingness to lower prices and ship.
The proactive strategy of the factory: In this situation, the primary task of the factory is to ensure profits and stabilize prices, rather than following the price reduction of raw materials. They successfully maintained market sentiment in a strong range by controlling the pace of shipments and maintaining a positive pricing posture, thus achieving price increases against the backdrop of cost collapse.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a critical stage of a game between “weakened cost support” and “tight supply and demand pattern”, with the latter temporarily gaining the upper hand.

After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and stabilized
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the DOP price was 7309.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.79% compared to the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of DOP slightly decreased and then stabilized. The operating load of DOP enterprises was weakly consolidated, the operating rate slightly decreased, and the supply of DOP decreased; The raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, the price of phthalic anhydride has weakened and fallen, the cost of DOP has stabilized strongly, and the downward pressure on DOP has weakened; Downstream demand is unlikely to improve, with mediocre intentions for DOP procurement inquiries and weak DOP demand transactions. The cost support for both supply and demand is weak, and the price of plasticizers has stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday.
After the holiday, the price of raw material isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the price of isooctanol was 6550 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.75% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on October 1st, and a rebound of 1.03% compared to the price of 6483.33 yuan/ton on October 10th. Partial maintenance of isooctanol equipment in some enterprises resulted in a slight decrease in operating load and supply of isooctanol after the holiday; The profit of isooctanol is on the edge of the cost line, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. The price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and risen. The downward pressure on DOP has weakened, and the upward support has increased.
After the holiday, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6216.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.22% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 6293.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of ortho benzene fell, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, the cost support of phthalic anhydride decreased, the equipment load of phthalic anhydride slightly decreased after the holiday, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell, the equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride weakened. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and there is greater pressure to reduce the DOP of plasticizers after the holiday.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has rebounded and stopped falling, while the price of phthalic anhydride has weakly declined. The downward pressure on the cost of plasticizer DOP has weakened, and the upward support has increased; On the supply side, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has slightly decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, and the supply of plasticizers has decreased; In terms of demand, the overall economy is sluggish, coupled with anti competition and the elimination of outdated production capacity, resulting in weak downstream demand. In the future, with weak supply and demand and increased cost support, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will stabilize and stop falling.