According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 23rd, the price of organic silicon DMC was 13625 yuan/ton. On October 1st, the reference price of organic silicon DMC was 11050 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2575 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.3%.
1、 Price market description
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the price trend of organic silicon DMC will show a step-by-step upward trend of “stable accumulation, rapid rise, and steady increase”. In October, the organic silicon DMC market was in a period of calm in the supply-demand game, and the market situation was still at a low point, with prices around 11000-11300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market broke away from the previous low volatility trend and gradually entered a repair channel. In November, the consensus to reduce production in the industry became a key turning point in the market, and the price of organic silicon DMC quickly rebounded, breaking through 13100 yuan/ton. In December, the upward trend of organic silicon DMC continued to consolidate, and market prices continued to rise. At the end of the month, the high price of organic silicon DMC exceeded 14000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price was in the range of 13500-14000 yuan/ton. Some companies’ new material quotations reached 14500 yuan/ton, with a quarterly cumulative increase of over 23%. The industry’s profitability has gradually recovered from the bottom range to a reasonable range, and the industry has gradually reversed its long-term loss situation.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
（1） Supply side: Consensus on production reduction and slowing capacity expansion provide strong support for organic silicon DM
Entering the fourth quarter, the contraction of supply in the silicone industry has become the core driving force behind the price increase of silicone DMC. In November 2025, the organic silicon industry reached a consensus to reduce production and increase prices. Coupled with the already reduced production base in April of the year, the overall operating rate of the industry has been effectively controlled, and the release of excess capacity has been suppressed, directly improving the supply-demand imbalance pattern.
At the same time, the addition of new production capacity in the organic silicon industry will significantly decrease by 2025, and the supply pressure caused by intensive expansion in the early stage will continue to ease, laying a long-term fundamental support for price recovery.
（2） On the demand side: gradually repairing demand, strengthening support for essential needs
In the fourth quarter, the gradual improvement of downstream demand for organic silicon DMC provided effective support for price increases. The downstream demand scale is relatively stable, providing basic support for market prices. Under the expectation of price rebound, the procurement strategy has shifted from “purchasing in small quantities according to demand” to “replenishing inventory in moderation”, further amplifying the support effect on the demand side.
（3） Cost and Inventory: Stabilizing the Bottom of Costs+Optimizing Inventory Structure to Relieve Pressure
In terms of cost: In the fourth quarter, the cost performance of organic silicon DMC was relatively stable, which helped to solidify the bottom of organic silicon DMC prices. In the fourth quarter, industrial silicon prices fluctuated within a range, providing stable cost support for organic silicon DMC.
In terms of inventory: The organic silicon DMC market has continuously optimized its inventory structure through production reduction and demand digestion, with a stable pace of destocking and no significant backlog pressure, avoiding the risk of inventory pressure during the price recovery process.
Future forecast

Overall, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the market situation of organic silicon DMC improved amidst supply contraction, stable demand, and stable cost support, and finally rose from the bottom, achieving a recovery from losses to reasonable profits. The data analyst of Shengyi Society’s organic silicon DMC believes that the future trend of organic silicon DMC is still greatly affected by supply and demand as well as cost. In the future, more attention should be paid to the sustainability of production reduction, changes in cost, and the recovery of terminal demand. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of organic silicon DMC will continue to maintain a stable to strong operating trend, and the industry is expected to usher in a new round of business cycle.

Recently (12.1-12.22), the market for trichloromethane in Shandong has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 22, the price of trichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1966 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from 1900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine still have some support. Downstream production remains low, dragging down the market for trichloromethane. The production of methane chloride has decreased, and the overall impact has led to an upward trend in the supply price of trichloromethane.
Recently (12.1-12.22), the methane chloride unit has slightly decreased to around 8.1%.
Recently, the price of methanol has slightly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable, providing support for the cost of trichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 22, the spot price of methanol was 2140 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% from 2125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of December 22, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region remained stable at around 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.
The demand for downstream refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, and the support for trichloromethane demand has weakened. The R22 quota will continue to decrease in 2025, which will have a negative impact on trichloromethane. In 2013, the baseline production quota for second-generation refrigerants in China was 426400 tons. After multiple pressure drops, it will be reduced to 163600 tons by 2025. Among them, the production quotas for R22, R142b, and R141b are 149100 tons, 0.34 tons, and 0.92 tons, respectively.
The methane chloride data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the demand for trichloromethane is relatively weak; However, with certain support from cost and supply, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the zinc price of 23426 yuan/ton on December 15th.
Macro sentiment tends to be warm
The divergence of monetary policies among major economies around the world, the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of loose liquidity are favorable for metal prices. The domestic macroeconomic data has moderately recovered, and signals such as CPI rebound and export recovery have boosted market confidence. The overall macroeconomic sentiment is warm, providing external support for zinc prices.
raw material end
Currently, the processing cost of zinc concentrate continues to show a downward trend. As a result, the profit margin of smelters has been significantly compressed, and some smelters have even fallen into a loss making situation. At the same time, northern mines have entered a seasonal production reduction phase, which further exacerbates the tight situation on the raw material supply side.
Supply and demand side
The domestic zinc ingot supply side has shown a significant contraction trend, mainly due to two factors: the concentrated maintenance work carried out by smelters and the tight supply of raw materials.
The demand in the domestic terminal market still shows a seasonal weak trend. Entering November, the zinc plating, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide industries mainly focus on meeting rigid demand in procurement, and inventory pressure has not been significantly alleviated.
comprehensive analysis
The zinc supply side continues to show a tightening trend, providing strong support for prices. However, high inventory levels and weak demand have significantly suppressed the upward potential of prices. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices rose and fell first this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 118633.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 7 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
On February 11th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5% -3.75% and sending a “dovish but cautious” signal. The Federal Reserve announced the launch of the US $40 billion short-term treasury bond bond purchase plan, which is expected to inject about US $55 billion of liquidity into the financial system, further lower the real interest rate, and stimulate the flow of funds into the commodity market.
In terms of news, Indonesian President Prabowo is intensifying efforts to rectify the mining industry. The latest measure is to impose high fines on mining companies that operate illegally beyond the forest permit scope. The fines will depend on the number of years of violation and the type of commodity being mined, with nickel mining companies facing the most severe punishment.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel production increased significantly by 16.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025. In recent years, Indonesia has attracted a large amount of investment through its “downstream” strategy, accelerated the landing of smelting capacity, and continued to release supply increments to the global market. The domestic market also shows a trend of capacity expansion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.8% in refined nickel production during the same period.
In terms of demand, both core areas on the demand side have shown weakness. The traditional consumer main stainless steel industry is showing a “sluggish peak season” trend, with downstream industries such as real estate and machinery experiencing slower than expected demand recovery, resulting in a low purchasing willingness of stainless steel enterprises and limited ability to digest nickel raw materials. The field of new energy batteries has also failed to provide effective support. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained growth, the demand for nickel used in batteries has not met market expectations.
In summary, the global nickel surplus pattern is difficult to fundamentally change, and the contradiction between supply growth and weak demand will continue to exist. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut continues to rise, and the market’s expectation for loose monetary policy provides a financial support for nickel prices. The nickel mining and smelting process in Indonesia has formed a large-scale cost advantage. When prices approach or fall below the cost line, some small and medium-sized production capacity may experience a reduction in production, which naturally supports prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating recently due to the dual effects of supply side disturbances and demand side resilience. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 92500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% compared to the same period last week (December 1st), an increase of 16.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 14.24% year-on-year; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 90800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% compared to the same period last week, a month on month increase of 17.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.86.
Supply side: Continuous disturbance factors, shortage of lithium ore
The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and the market news of resuming production on December 5th has passed, and the expected resumption of production has fallen through. Several traders in Yichun region have stated that the supply and demand of local lithium mica ore are gradually changing, and the supply cannot keep up with the demand.
Overseas supply shows a shrinking trend
In October 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 652000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% compared to the previous month. Among them, Australia’s import volume decreased by 15% compared to the previous month, Zimbabwe’s import volume was 150000 tons (an increase of 41% compared to the previous month), and Nigeria’s import volume was 120000 tons (unchanged compared to the previous month). In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate reached 23881 tons, an increase of 21.9% compared to the previous month, of which 14800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62%.
On the demand side: downstream resilience is strong, with both production and sales increasing
In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a month on month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%; The total export was 28.2 GWh, with a month on month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; The sales volume was 166.0 GWh, a month on month increase of 13.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, with all data showing an upward trend.
Inventory side: Continued destocking, speed may slow down
Lithium carbonate inventory continues to be in a state of destocking, and social inventory has been declining for 13 consecutive weeks, with destocking reaching 20000 tons in November alone. But it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in December will slightly decline compared to the previous month, and the production of battery cells and positive electrode materials is expected to slightly decline in December compared to the previous month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be sold out in December, but the magnitude will slow down compared to November.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that lithium carbonate is currently in a tight supply-demand balance, with continuous supply side disruptions and strong demand side resilience. Multiple factors are driving price fluctuations, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production and market changes at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine in the future.