According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke saw a slight increase at the end of September. As of September 30th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2383.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 2357.50 yuan/ton on September 22nd.
The recent decline in crude oil prices is mainly due to OPEC+’s plan to continue increasing production in November, as well as the resumption of crude oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq, resulting in a decrease in international oil prices.
Recently, the petroleum coke market has seen a slight increase, with most refineries stabilizing prices and executing orders before the holiday. The price of petroleum coke has fluctuated in recent times. Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke from ports has been acceptable, while the price of sponge coke has slightly increased.
Recently, the market for calcined coke has risen, with new orders signed at the end of the month, and manufacturers showing a strong willingness to increase prices for new orders.
Market forecast: Currently, orders for manufacturers during the holiday period have basically been signed, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. After the holiday, there may be an increase in procurement demand, and it is expected that petroleum coke will rise slightly.

In early September, the market price of epichlorohydrin was rapidly pushed up due to the unexpected parking of a large factory. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong has soared to 13000 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the year. Starting from mid month, the market price of epichlorohydrin entered a high and falling channel, and the price remained stable at the end of the month. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.17% from the beginning of the month.
Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side: In the first half of September, the glycerol market price showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as tight supply, high external demand, and downstream demand recovery. Acrylic exhibits oscillatory operation. The trend of propylene has declined in the second half of the month. Overall, the raw material side briefly supported the cost of epichlorohydrin, and the price of epichlorohydrin fell from a high level in the second half of the month. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6598.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In early September, epoxy chloropropane was unexpectedly shut down by a large factory, which led to a more positive sentiment among suppliers. In addition, the 100000 tons/year glycerol process plant in Zibo will be shut down on August 31st, and the restart time will be notified separately; Hubei, Hebei, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other facilities are still in a parked state; The 100000 ton/year glycerol process plant in Quzhou will shut down in the morning of September 4th, and the restart time will be notified separately; In addition, some devices are parked for a long time. The tight supply side has affected the price increase of epichlorohydrin. Starting from mid month, the profit margins of epoxy chloropropane enterprises with different processes continued to expand, and production enthusiasm increased, leading to a rapid increase in market supply. In the second half of the month, the price of epoxy chloropropane fell from a high level.
On the demand side: In September, due to the unexpected shutdown of a large epoxy chloropropane factory, prices skyrocketed. Downstream epoxy resins showed strong resistance to high raw material costs, resulting in poor shipments for enterprises. Most companies were cautious and cautious, and the trading atmosphere was relatively average. The price of epichlorohydrin has fallen rapidly. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side have limited support for epichlorohydrin, and the tight situation on the supply side has also been alleviated to some extent. Downstream demand is limited in the short term due to the mentality of buying up instead of buying down. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

Aluminum prices first strong and then weak in September
In September, aluminum prices first strengthened and then weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% compared to the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
The decline in aluminum prices in September was mainly due to the weakening of the cost side. The trading logic of aluminum prices in October may continue, with an overall trend of “stabilizing first and then strengthening” with a strong oscillation. At the beginning of the month, it was suppressed by import supplements and demand wait-and-see measures. In the middle of the month, it may gradually rise with the acceleration of inventory depletion and cost increases, and the price center of gravity will further shift upward compared to September.
Fundamental forecast for October
Supply side:
The domestic operating capacity is above 44 million tons, approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, and there was no significant release of new investment capacity in October. The electricity price for electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan region has been officially raised by 0.12 yuan/kWh. From the supply side, although the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan has been basically completed, with 545000 tons of the planned production capacity of 565000 tons restored, the increase in electricity prices still has a certain impact on enterprise production, which in turn affects the supply of aluminum ingots.
Import shock: The Shanghai London ratio fell to 7.1, opening the import window, and there are expectations of an increase in Russian aluminum imports in October.
Changes in aluminum structure: The proportion of aluminum water direct alloying has increased to 73.9%, and the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery products is less than 27%, highlighting the phenomenon of “shortage of ingots” in spot goods.
Demand side:
New energy vehicles: In the sprint stage of the peak production and sales season, Xiaomi and Huawei have increased the volume of new models, with a single vehicle using 220kg of aluminum, which is expected to bring more than 80000 tons of demand increment. This is a core positive for aluminum prices and effectively drives the demand for casting aluminum alloys.
Home appliances: The “trade in” policy will continue until the end of the year. Although the peak season for air conditioning domestic sales has ended, export growth has played a role in supporting basic demand, and aluminum profile procurement remains stable.
Power grid: Ultra high voltage projects have entered a construction peak, with an expected increase in aluminum demand in October compared to the previous month, providing mid-term support for aluminum prices, and the landing of orders is accelerating.
Real estate: The year-on-year decline in completed housing area has narrowed, and the construction of Baojiao buildings has driven the recovery of aluminum used in building materials, reducing the drag on aluminum prices and showing a marginal improvement trend.
Photovoltaics: The decline in installed capacity compared to the first half of the year has narrowed, and the rebound in module exports has driven demand for aluminum for frames. Overall, this has a neutral to bullish impact on aluminum prices, and the gap is gradually being repaired.
Cost side:
The environmental protection policies in the north restrict the release of production capacity in the roasting process, and the domestic centralized maintenance and production of new production capacity form a hedge. The pressure of oversupply may be weaker than previously expected, and the price of alumina support will operate at more than 2900 yuan/ton.
Macro factors:
Macro policies have a bottom line. Domestic planning is expected to strengthen confidence in infrastructure investment, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain stable interest rates in October. The rebound in risk appetite is favorable for non-ferrous metals.

Market observation indicators for the future
1. Weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots (pay attention to whether it falls below 600000 tons); ​
2. Weekly production of new energy vehicles (to determine the intensity of demand fulfillment);
3. The arrival volume of Guinea bauxite at the port (tracking changes on the cost side);
4. Shanghai London ratio and primary aluminum import profit (evaluating import impact). ​

In September 2025, the raw material support for nylon filament was insufficient, and the supply and demand performance was bearish. Nylon factory shipments continued to show no improvement, and inventory levels were high. Both supply and demand sides lacked support for nylon filament prices, and nylon filament continued to operate weakly, with prices at the lowest point of the year.
On the one hand, the continuous decline in raw material prices lacks support for the cost of nylon filament; On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. Although some orders were placed within the month, the quantity was relatively low. Therefore, downstream links are mainly focused on digesting inventory in the face of high inventory. The enthusiasm for upstream raw material procurement is insufficient, and the demand transmission from bottom to top is not smooth, resulting in continuous light shipments from nylon filament manufacturers and increasing inventory pressure. Overall, the peak season is not prosperous, and the nylon filament market is weak. However, in the case of sustained poor profits, nylon factories have a certain mentality of reducing losses. Therefore, the mainstream transaction prices in the nylon filament market are mainly low and stable.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in September 2025, the price of nylon filament fell weakly, reaching a low point of the year. As of September 29, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 13880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton compared to the same period in August, with a monthly decrease of 3.07%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 11575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton compared to the same period in August, with a monthly decrease of 3.94%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 14500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.68% compared to the same period in August.
In September, the cost side price of nylon PA6 fluctuated downward, and the supply-demand contradiction was prominent. Therefore, the market price of PA6 high-speed spinning continued to decline, which had a bearish impact on the price of nylon filament. As of September 29, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 8693 yuan/ton, with a weak price decline of 2.9% per month. During the month, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips fell weakly, with a monthly decline of 1.29%. Cost side support is mainly weak.
Prominent supply-demand contradiction, bearish prices
Within the month, there has been no improvement in nylon factory shipments, with high inventory levels and a lack of support for nylon filament prices from both supply and demand sides. Specifically, downstream orders are relatively low and inventory is high, so there is a lack of speculative demand for nylon filament to maintain rigid demand. The inventory level of nylon manufacturers continues to increase, and some manufacturers have reduced production operations, but the relief effect on inventory pressure is limited. Many operators adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain weak and mainly consolidate at a low level in the short term; In terms of nylon PA6 chips, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 chips in the market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 chips will be mainly weakly adjusted.

Supply and demand: Although September is the traditional peak season, the difference between peak and off peak seasons is no longer clear in recent years, and the trading atmosphere continues to be weak. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for nylon filament market will remain weak next month. However, under the current inventory pressure, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing their production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity, resulting in overall supply pressure remaining relatively high.
Overall, the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and nylon PA6 chip market will continue to operate weakly, with a lack of cost support, high supply pressure, and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. Follow up on demand will be the main focus, and the supply-demand contradiction will be prominent. Good news will not appear, and the trend of low-level stability will continue. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market trend will continue to be low-level stability, with weak price consolidation as the main trend.

Cobalt prices have risen sharply this week
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 26th was 309300 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.47% compared to the cobalt price of 275000 yuan/ton on September 21st. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced a quota system, leading to an expected shortage of cobalt supply in the international market and a significant increase in cobalt prices.
Congo introduces quota system
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country will end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th, and will implement an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. For the remainder of this year, mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum export volume of 96600 tons per year in 2026 and 2027. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has implemented a cobalt export quota system, resulting in a significant reduction in supply to the cobalt market in the country.
Expected shortage of supply in cobalt market
In the cobalt export quota system of the Democratic Republic of Congo, mining companies will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt from October to December 2025, with a maximum annual export volume of 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027. Compared to the cobalt export volume of nearly 250000 tons in 2024, the annual quota for 2026 is less than 40% of the production in 2024. The cobalt market in the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for more than 70% of the global cobalt market supply. The quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo will lead to a shortage of cobalt market supply. Although cobalt projects in countries such as Indonesia and Australia have made up for some of the cobalt market supply shortage, their increased production capacity is far from enough to fill the supply gap in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is expected that the global cobalt supply will face an annual shortfall of 50000 tons from 2026 to 2027.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the Democratic Republic of Congo has confirmed the introduction of an export quota system, and the production of cobalt projects in countries such as Indonesia and Australia continues to increase, making up for the shortage of cobalt market supply. However, overall, the expected shortage of cobalt market supply in the next three years is still high, and the driving force for cobalt price increase is increasing. The rise in cobalt prices will stimulate the market to seek alternatives. The vigorous promotion of cobalt recycling projects will make up for the shortage in the cobalt market, and new batteries will be launched in the market, which will seize the demand in the cobalt market in the future. Overall, there will be a shortage of supply in the cobalt market in the next two years, with a significant increase in cobalt prices. However, it is still uncertain whether cobalt prices can continue to rise. With the promotion of cobalt recycling and the construction of new cobalt projects in other countries, the shortage in the cobalt market may not meet expectations. The promotion and launch of new batteries will seize the demand in the cobalt market, and the overall supply-demand imbalance in the cobalt market may not meet expectations. The risk of overheating in the cobalt market is increasing as cobalt prices rise to 350000 yuan/ton, and caution is highest.