According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 19th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 9610 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as August 15th. Compared with August 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9980 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.71%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that recently, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal 441 # has shown a consolidation and operation. During mid August, the overall market volatility of the domestic silicon metal market was not significant, with sporadic narrow adjustments in some regions and brands, and the overall market consolidation was the main trend. As of August 19th, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 # in East China, Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, and Shanghai is around 9600-9800 yuan/ton, 9600-9800 yuan/ton, 9500-9700 yuan/ton, 9200-9300 yuan/ton, and 9800-10100 yuan/ton, respectively.
Fundamental situation
Construction status: Currently, the overall construction of metallic silicon in Xinjiang has slightly increased, with weekly construction at around 57%. The overall operating rate of metals in the northwest region is around 76%, and the overall operating rate remains stable. The operating rate of metallic silicon in Yunnan region is around 68%, and there is currently little overall change. The operating rate of metallic silicon in Sichuan region is around 56%, and the operating rate is basically stable.
Supply and production situation: In the first ten days, the resumption of production by major factories in Xinjiang has driven the overall release of market output, resulting in a slight increase in overall market supply. The overall inventory level in the market is still acceptable.
In terms of demand: Currently, the demand for metal silicon in downstream polycrystalline and organic silicon markets mainly continues to be driven by rigid procurement. It is expected that there will be little change in the overall downstream production expectations in the short term.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall supply and demand transmission in the metal silicon market is relatively loose, the trading atmosphere on the market is weak, and the mentality of industry players is average. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber fluctuated downward in August. As of August 18th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% from the beginning of the month.
The support for raw materials is weakening, and the peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end. Supply side risks have not been eliminated, and international oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term. As of August 15th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.80 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.85 per barrel.
Since August, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained a downward trend. As of August 18th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month. In terms of PTA equipment, Taihua and Hainan have shut down, while Weilian and Jiaxing have restarted. The shutdown of the equipment has been reduced for continued maintenance, and the overall supply has rebounded. The 3.2 million ton unit of Hailun Petrochemical was tested and discharged at the end of July, gradually increasing its load, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained around 76%.
Under the constraint of high inventory in downstream weaving, yarn factories find it difficult to achieve continuous replenishment and maintain a wait-and-see atmosphere, with a focus on essential procurement. In August, the market experienced a slow season for traditional demand, coupled with no signs of improvement in terminal market demand, resulting in low enthusiasm for short fiber procurement.
Business analysts believe that the sluggish performance of international oil prices, coupled with the commissioning of new PTA facilities, has led to a slight increase in supply side. The cost center of gravity continues to decline. There is no expectation of significant improvement in demand, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to fluctuate downward.

Although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased this week, the overall supply remains abundant, and with the launch of new production capacity in Jihua, there is still insufficient spot buying gas, and local inventory pressure exists. The market is weak and difficult to change, and it will fall back again. As of August 15th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8200-8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 8050-8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
Capacity utilization rate has decreased but overall supply remains saturated:
During the week, the 92000 tons of acrylonitrile installed by Fushun Petrochemical in the northern market was shut down for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 10th. However, Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 tons/year new unit was put into operation on August 12th, and the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity base was adjusted to 5.449 million tons/year, resulting in a decrease in the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry.
However, the weekly production has not changed much, the overall supply is still saturated, the demand for spot goods is insufficient, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased. According to statistics, as of August 14th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 72.45%, which was -1.89% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output was about 81000 tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous cycle. The total inventory was about 45500 tons, which was+0.1 million tons compared to last week.
Downstream purchasing power is still insufficient:
The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has decreased, among which the capacity utilization rate of ABS is 71.10%, unchanged from last week; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 76.88%, compared to last week -0.46%; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 47.64%, compared to last week -0.35%. Overall, the operating rate of small and medium-sized downstream industries has decreased, and there is still insufficient procurement of raw material acrylonitrile. The atmosphere of spot transactions in the market is still average.
The price of propylene has significantly increased:
During the cycle, the upstream propylene price significantly increased, leading to an increase in the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices fell again, exacerbating the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8937 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 2.87%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -632 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -214 yuan/ton.
Overall, although cost support has been strengthened, Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 tons/year new facilities have been put into operation one after another, releasing new production capacity, and the overall supply is still abundant. However, spot gas purchases continue to be insufficient, and local inventory pressure exists. Under the game of supply, demand, and cost, the market amplitude is narrow and weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12933/ton, with a price increase of 0.52%.
The prices of domestic activated carbon manufacturers have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9000 to 13000 yuan/ton. Due to the shortage of coconut supply in the Asian market, market demand has increased, and the demand for environmentally friendly materials in emerging markets has surged. The focus is on market transactions.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand’s reduced production of fragrant coconut due to drought and pest infestations, coupled with rising transportation costs, have led to a surge in coconut shell purchase prices. The price of coconut shell carbonization materials, including taxes, has exceeded 8000 yuan/ton, and the price of coconut shell activated carbon is under pressure to rise. ‌‌
Prediction: Due to the shortage of raw materials and the acceleration of transactions, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price center of polyester filament has been partially raised. As of August 11th, the POY (150D/48F) quotation of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is between 6600-6800 yuan/ton, the DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quotation is between 7800-8050 yuan/ton, and the FDY (150D/96F) quotation is between 6900-7200 yuan/ton.
Over the weekend, the production and sales rate of polyester filament factories rebounded, and inventory pressure eased (factory inventory increased by 8.84% to 19.7 days per week), prompting manufacturers to tentatively raise prices. As August approaches the traditional textile peak season, downstream textile city transactions have rebounded month on month (Keqiao Textile Index raw material prices increased by 1.15% month on month), boosting market confidence. The willingness of major enterprises to jointly reduce production and repair profits is strong, supporting price stabilization. On the demand side, the weaving operation rate is 55.75%, and the raw material stocking days are 9.39 days, still at a low level, but the autumn fabric orders have begun to increase slightly.
Business Society believes that the market is in a game of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. The fluctuation of crude oil has narrowed (Brent $66.59/barrel), and the impact on the cost side has weakened; If the downstream “Golden September and Silver October” stocking is launched, polyester prices may slightly increase.