According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market has shifted downwards in June. As of June 6th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% from the beginning of the month.
The geopolitical dispute continues, and OPEC+eight major oil producing countries have agreed to increase their daily oil production by 411000 barrels in July, with the increase not exceeding expectations and crude oil showing a strong trend. As of June 5th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.37 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.34 per barrel.
However, the supply and demand margin of PTA itself has narrowed, and maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another. The utilization rate of PTA production capacity has exceeded 82%, and domestic supply continues to increase.
The negative impact of downstream polyester production reduction is gradually being realized, and the demand side is showing a sluggish performance. Affected by the off-season in the terminal textile market, factories reduced production and went on holiday during the Dragon Boat Festival, and the resumption of work after the holiday fell short of expectations, resulting in a continuous decline in weaving load. At present, the level of terminal orders is average, and consumption growth is slow.
Business analysts believe that there are many external instability factors, the international oil price trend lacks sustainability, PX spot prices are tight, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term, with cost support still acceptable. As the off-season deepens and domestic and foreign trade orders perform poorly, there is an expectation of weakened supply and demand, resulting in a continued weakness in PTA prices in the short term.
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