On March 31, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 1st day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 1st day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 1st day. The temporary stable trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Market price trends remained stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices rose sharply in March, rising by 5.40% in March, the biggest monthly increase in nearly a year. As of March 31, the price of zinc ingot was 23226.67 yuan/ton, which was 5.40% higher than that of 22036.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, and 6.49% lower than that of the same period last year. Overall, the market of zinc rose in March, and the market of zinc was good.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

As can be seen from the above chart, zinc prices rose sharply in March after changing the previous decline, and reached the biggest increase in one year. Zinc price rises, zinc trading activity increases, and the momentum for future market increases, which is good for future market.

Non-ferrous plate:

As can be seen from the K-line chart of the non-ferrous plate index, the overall fluctuation of the non-ferrous plate rose in 2019, and the market of the non-ferrous plate rose significantly in March, with the advantages outweighing the disadvantages. The industry as a whole rose, which was good for the market of zinc, and the overall motive force for the rise of zinc price was sufficient.

Data statistics:

According to the data released by the Statistical Commission of Kazakhstan, the output of zinc in Kazakhstan decreased by 4.0% from January to February, the output of zinc in Kazakhstan decreased, and the supply of zinc in Kazakhstan decreased, which is good for the price of zinc.

According to data from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mining, the output of zinc minerals in Las Bambas mine of MMG company dropped 7.8% in January from a year earlier to 10,1604 tons. The data show that the supply of zinc minerals in Peru fell in January, which has a positive impact on the future zinc market.

Vinneth Bajaj, a senior mining analyst at Global Data, points out that global zinc production has increased to 13.2 million tons in 2017 and 13.4 million tons in 2018, respectively, following a sharp decline in 2016. In 2018, Australia’s zinc production grew by 9.9%, Peru’s by 8.5%, India’s by 7.9% and the United States by 5.9%. In China, zinc production has declined by 1% due to environmental protection measures. As China is the world’s largest producer of zinc, global zinc production is 1.1 million tons less than the global total demand of 14.5 million tons. Demand for zinc in Belgium, China, Germany and the United States has been growing.

Overseas enterprises:

Glencore said Friday it had suspended mining and development operations at the McArthur River zinc mine in northern Australia in preparation for the coming hurricane. The approaching hurricane will restrict the opening and transportation of mines in Australia, which will affect the supply of zinc ingots for a period of time in the future. The shortage of zinc supply in the near future will bring about significant benefits to zinc prices in the future.

Empire State Mine, which sent a possible layoff notice to 87 miners, said it would continue to invest in mine development and exploration after layoffs and match its staffing with planned mining activities. But layoffs will inevitably affect mining, zinc supply will be affected by the decline, the overall supply of zinc will have a favorable impact on the price of zinc.

Noranda Income Fund said that in March, international traders and miners Glencore had signed a zinc processing fee agreement with them for the next year, but did not disclose the specific costs. Meanwhile, Noranda said in a statement: “Processing fees have rebounded in the past few months, but the pricing environment may continue to fluctuate.” The trend of spot processing fees is the best example of the increase in zinc concentrate supply. Processing fees for zinc concentrates in the spot market have risen above $200, to $30 per ton at the beginning of last year. Increasing processing cost of zinc concentrate is beneficial to zinc price in the future market.

Laws and regulations:

Yunnan Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment issued the “Yunnan Province Solid Waste Pollution Control Implementation Plan” clearly, by 2020, Yunnan Province will achieve the whole process of solid waste supervision. By 2020, the discharge of heavy metals from key industries in Yunnan Province will be 12% lower than that in 2013, and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste will strive to reach more than 56%. The key areas of solid waste pollution control in Yunnan Province include 11 key areas of heavy metal pollution prevention and control in countries, and areas with prominent problems of heavy metal pollution in cultivated land. The key industries include: heavy non-ferrous metal ore (including associated ore) mining and processing industry (copper, lead-zinc, nickel-cobalt, tin, antimony, gold and mercury mining and processing industry), heavy non-ferrous metal smelting industry (copper, lead-zinc, nickel-cobalt, tin, antimony, gold and mercury smelting, etc.). The government has strengthened the governance of heavy metal industry, which is bound to restrict the supply of non-ferrous metals industry. The price of non-ferrous metals has risen, and the market of zinc is good.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business associations, believes that the recent good news of zinc market both at home and abroad continues, although it can not fundamentally change the relationship between supply and demand in zinc city, but it still increases the speed and momentum of future market growth in zinc city. In the international market, Australia’s suspension of zinc mining and transportation due to hurricanes, the reduction of zinc supply in Kazakhstan, the layoffs of Empire Mining Company of the United States, and the increase of zinc concentrate processing fees have all had a positive impact on the rise of zinc prices; Looking back at the domestic market, the state has intensified efforts to prevent and control heavy metal pollution, and environmental protection measures have affected the start-up of zinc mining enterprises, which has a greater impact on zinc production in the city Likon, China is the world’s largest zinc producer. The decline in China’s zinc production has led to insufficient international zinc supply, which has a significant positive impact on the rise of zinc prices. In 2019, the international economic environment warmed up and the demand for zinc increased. The supply of zinc in the city was still in short supply. The future zinc market had sufficient momentum to rise. The overall international and domestic positive news has a strong impact on zinc prices in the future, which is expected to be volatile in the future.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, DOP prices have suddenly increased slightly this week after changing the previous downward trend. As of March 28, the price of DOP in East China was 8366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.24% from 8183.33 yuan/ton last weekend. DOP prices recovered slightly this week.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand is strong this week, but the start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises remains high. Overall market demand and supply are booming, market demand is still acceptable, but at the same time, supply is sufficient, overall plasticizer DOP market is maintained, DOP price has no driving force to support.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, the price of octanol has suddenly risen this week, which has led to the rise of DOP prices. Owing to the overhaul of sudden equipment failure in octanol enterprises last weekend, the supply of octanol was tight, the price of octanol was rising, and the price of upstream octanol was good for DOP. The price of octanol rose by 1.29% this week, which had a significant impact on the plasticizer DOP. Trading in the market is good, but the rise in raw material prices and DOP costs has led to an urgent price increase for DOP enterprises, and overall future plasticizer DOP is good.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business association, thinks that the DOP market demand is good at present, but the DOP equipment of plasticizer manufacturer keeps high start-up rate, sufficient supply and stable DOP market; the price of raw material octanol rises, and the cost of DOP rises, but because the equipment overhaul capacity of octanol enterprise has little effect on the overall market, the shortage price rises in the short term, but the price of octanol rises not. Can continue, future octanol prices are still mainly stable, overall future DOP cost is stable, future plasticizer DOP market performance is still booming supply and demand, DOP market is stable, DOP future price is stable.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 26, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 16700 yuan/ton, and the overall market price rose sharply.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI market prices continue to rise. At the beginning of the week, the news from all sides was light, and the offer was not clear and cautious. With the announcement of the increase of Koth’s guidance price, the mindset of the dealers has been boosted. Some of the dealers are short of cash and offer high. Downstream just need inquiry, active picking. Routine overhaul of manufacturers is common in the second quarter, coupled with frequent problems in Jinhu and Dongcao devices abroad, Wanhua and Basf are likely to rise in April, and the market price of aggregated MDI will continue to rise in the short term.

On the market side, South China has aggregated the high price of MDI market. Dealers quote high prices, downstream active inquiries on demand procurement, general turnover. Towards the end of the month, we will pay more attention to the price guidance of manufacturers. The price of aggregated MDI in North China continued to rise. On-site speculation is booming, dealers offer high prices, downstream just need to actively inquire, wait and see Wanhua and Basf manufacturers guide prices. High-level consolidation of aggregated MDI prices in East China. Eastern China is not affected by the northern speculation atmosphere. Distributors are cautious in quoting prices, accompanied by shipments, downstream inquiry atmosphere is general, and the manufacturers’guidance prices are on the lookout.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: East China pure benzene purchase is scarce, considering the value-added tax changes in April, the mentality of wait-and-see. Spot purchases refer to 4600-4650 yuan/ton, selling 4800 yuan/ton. Purchase price in April is 4600-4650 yuan/ton and sale price is 4750-4800 yuan/ton. May buy 4600-4650 yuan/ton, sell 4800-4850 yuan/ton. Aniline: Lanzhou Petrochemical Company stopped for maintenance on March 22, with a plan of about 15 days. Shandong market inventory is low, downstream receipt intention is still acceptable, Shandong factory price rise led to aniline Market rise. At present, the domestic aniline market digests the main increase, and the price is stable. Shandong mainstream negotiation price refers to 5900-5920 yuan/ton spot, 6040-6060 yuan/ton acceptance. East China market reference 6100 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, Huntsman raised 1000 yuan/ton to 16200 yuan/ton in April; Wanhua had less supply to the distribution market in the second half of the month; Costco raised its new price by 900 yuan/ton to 15800 yuan/ton this week; and factory overhaul was concentrated in April. On the negative side, the downstream demand has just rebounded slowly; foaming agent 141B has risen sharply and the cost level has moved up, which indirectly affects the demand for MDI at the terminal. MDI analysts at business associations predict that aggregated MDI market prices will continue to rise in the short term.

On March 24, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 65.69, down 0.33 points from yesterday, down 45.32% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), up 35.67% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic phthalic anhydride market price fluctuations, the East China phthalic anhydride market weak consolidation, downstream factories to maintain just needed procurement, factory inventory pressure continued, high-end transaction hindered, on-site neighbouring source negotiations mainstream in 6600-6800 yuan/ton, naphthalene source negotiations mainstream in 6400-6500 yuan/ton; North China phthalic anhydride market mainstream offer in 6500-6800 yuan/ton, the market weak shock. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride remains weak.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks maintain stability, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation rises, import phthalic cost rises, the actual transaction price talks in detail, upstream price trend is stable, phthalic anhydride market prices remain volatile. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations have fallen to 8100-8200 yuan/ton, and downstream prices have been declining. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited. The market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6700 yuan/ton in the later period.