Aluminum prices bottomed out in 2018, hovering at year-round lows, with a range of 13,450-15,000 yuan/ton. In the first nine months, the price of aluminium has been running in a “W” trend. In the fourth quarter, the price of aluminium has been falling monotonously.

The average price of aluminium ingot market continued to be weak in the first ten days of January, 2019. On January 15, the average price of aluminium ingot Market dropped to 13223.33 yuan/ton, which was the lowest level in the past two years. According to the data of business associations, the average price of aluminium (99.70) market as of February 27 was 13640 yuan/ton, which was 2.17% higher than the average price of 13350 yuan/ton on the first working day (February 6) after the year, and 3.15% higher than the price of January.

It is reported that due to the sharp fall in aluminium prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, high-cost aluminium factories suffer serious losses. Some domestic aluminium factories have gradually reduced production and pressure, and the phenomenon of industry independent capacity removal is obvious. Among them, the provinces with the most output reduction are Henan (533,000 tons), Gansu (500,000 tons) and Qinghai (285,000 tons). The common problem in these areas is the high cost of electricity price, which in turn raises the overall production cost, and is also the area where price drops are the first to be hit.

On February 25, the fluorite commodity index was 116.49, down 4.56 points from yesterday, down 8.63% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 136.72% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price trend has declined, the average domestic fluorite price is 3280 yuan/ton as of the 26th day. Due to the end of the holiday, the recent start-up of domestic fluorite devices, the continuous opening of mines and flotation devices, the supply of fluorite in the field has increased relatively, but the recent downstream market is not good, and the price of fluorite market has slightly declined. Recent low temperature and low start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in North China, but the downstream units start-up generally, the fluorite spot supply in the field is sufficient, and the downstream terminal receipt is not active, leading to a decline in market prices. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian is 2800-3500 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 3000-3400 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-3400 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite is declining.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite has declined. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11 475 yuan/ton as of 26 days. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined, which is not good for domestic fluorite market. In addition, the upstream refrigerant product plant started to operate normally, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much, and the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened due to on-demand purchasing by merchants. Generally speaking, there are many downstream negative factors, together with the restart of fluorite market devices, fluorite prices have a downward trend, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market prices may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6350 yuan/ton on Feb. 18 and domestic PVC quoted 6350 yuan/ton on Feb. 22, with little change in price, the fluctuation range is 50-100 yuan/ton, and the PVC market runs smoothly.

II. Cause Analysis

Product aspect: After the Spring Festival, the spot market atmosphere of PVC has gradually recovered, the market inventory has increased, the main demand is still recovering, the actual volume is not much, stable price operation. Recently, there has been little volatility in PVC futures, which has little impact on the spot market. Up to February 22, the domestic mainstream price range of PVC is 6150-6600 yuan/ton.

P > Industry: On February 22, the rubber and plastic index was 734 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.75% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 27.43% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week, commodity market shocks slightly, the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry consolidation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that after the Spring Festival, the PVC market is in a recovery period, stable operation, price consolidation. It is expected that the downstream demand side will gradually recover in the future, and the future market will oscillate. The mainstream price of PVC 5 is 6100-6650 yuan/ton.

In recent years, the domestic styrene industry has developed steadily. By the end of 2018, China’s annual production capacity reached about 9.5 million tons. In the next few years, styrene production capacity will continue to expand, downstream demand is insufficient to follow up, import volume will be significantly reduced, and the supply and demand pattern will appear larger variables.

Great increase in capacity

In 2018, a total of 760,000 tons/year styrene production capacity was added in Qingdao Bay and Haoyuan, Anhui Province. In the next few years, with the hot construction of integrated refining and chemical projects, Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Refining and Chemical and other large-scale new styrene plants are planned to start up, together with the new projects of other enterprises, the total capacity of styrene plants planned to put into operation this year and next year alone has exceeded 5 million tons/year, and the domestic supply of styrene will increase substantially.

It is noteworthy that the propylene oxide/styrene (PO/SM) co-oxidation process has increased significantly in the planned new plant. Wanhua Chemistry and Tianjin Bohua Chemical Company have chosen co-oxidation process. Compared with the traditional ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method, the investment and operation cost of co-oxidation method are reduced.

Previously, the co-oxidation process has been in the hands of foreign companies, such as Leandberg Basel, Shell, Repsall and so on. On January 5 this year, Wanhua Chemical Co-oxidation of Ethylbenzene with its own intellectual property rights to produce propylene oxide with high efficiency and green technology has passed the appraisal of achievements organized by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, and will be applied to the company’s new PO/SM plant in the future, which will break the technological monopoly of foreign companies.

In the traditional ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process, the use of raw materials is also more variable. More and more companies began to choose dry gas as the source of ethylene raw material, in order to achieve high value-added comprehensive utilization of refinery dry gas and promote resource conservation.

Insufficient follow-up of demand

Although the production capacity of styrene will increase dramatically, the overall follow-up of demand is insufficient. Industry insiders analysis, in 2018 as the main downstream of styrene ABS, EPS and PS production capacity is less, in the next few years, the planned production capacity in these areas is far lower than the expansion rate of raw styrene, coupled with the pressure of Sino-US trade war on the export of end products, the overall downstream support for styrene is insufficient. Significant reduction in imports

In addition to capacity and demand, imports also have a greater impact on the supply and demand pattern of styrene. As we all know, styrene in China is heavily dependent on imports, while products originated in Korea, Taiwan and the United States account for half of the imported Styrene Market in China.

On June 22, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce issued a final ruling on imported styrene originating in Korea, Taiwan and the United States, levying anti-dumping duties from the next day. With the implementation of anti-dumping and the increase of domestic production capacity, the import volume of styrene will be significantly reduced, and domestic styrene will become the new darling of the market. This can be seen from last year’s customs data. According to statistics, from July to November 2018, China imported 124.32 million tons of styrene, a decrease of 11.3% compared with the same period last year.

Generally speaking, with the successive start-up of integrated refining and chemical projects, the domestic production capacity is expected to expand substantially with the supporting styrene plant. At the same time, the anti-dumping policies on products from Korea, the United States and other regions have rapidly increased the proportion of domestic styrene in the market, and the supply pattern of styrene industry has changed greatly. In terms of the import volume of styrene from 3 million to 4 million tons per year in recent years, if the new production capacity can be released in the next two years, domestic styrene products may completely replace imported products.

Thanks to production growth and other factors, Total, an international oil and gas giant, achieved a good performance last year.

Recently, Daudal released its fourth quarter and full-year report of 2018, with adjusted net profit of $13.6 billion in 2018, an increase of 28% over the previous year, and a return on equity of nearly 12%.

In the first quarter of 2018, Total achieved a net profit of $2.9 billion, up 13% from a year earlier; in the second quarter, it achieved a net profit of $3.72 billion, nearly doubling from a year earlier; in the third quarter, it achieved a six-year maximum single-quarter profit of $4 billion, up 48% from a year earlier; in the fourth quarter, it achieved a net profit of $3.164 billion, up 10% from a year earlier.

Patrick Pouyannlei, chairman of the company, said that the company’s strong performance was mainly driven by production growth. In 2018, the company’s oil and gas production reached a record 2.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of more than 8% year on year.

In 2018, the net profit of the exploration and production sector of Daudal increased significantly, reaching 10.21 billion US dollars, up 71% year-on-year; the natural gas and renewable power sector increased 56% year-on-year, reaching 756 million US dollars.

Net profit of refinery and chemical industry, marketing and service sectors declined. Among them, the net profit of refinery and chemical sectors was $3.379 billion, down 11% from the same period last year; the net profit of marketing and service sectors was $1.652 billion, down 1% from the same period last year.

In 2018, Daudal made progress in the Ichthys LNG project in Australia, Yamal LNG project in Russia, Kaombo North project in Angola and Egina deep-sea oil field project in Nigeria. In addition to the counter-cyclical acquisition of Maersk Oil, it also acquired new offshore oil rights in the United Arab Emirates.

Mr. Pan said that Dodall had completed its stock repurchase plan of $1.5 billion in 2018, and that its mid-term dividend would be increased by 3.1% to 0.66 per share in 2019. Under the environment of oil price of $6 billion per barrel, it would continue to buy back $1.5 billion of shares.

In 2018, Total’s net investment amounted to 15.6 billion US dollars, and its cost reduction was about 4.2 billion US dollars. By the end of 2018, its asset-liability ratio was 15.5%.

The international crude oil market remained volatile last year, but oil prices rose from an average of $54 per barrel in 2017 to $71 per barrel, an increase of 41.48%.

Thanks to the rise in oil prices, several major international oil giants achieved profit growth in 2018.

Among them, BP’s net profit increased 177 times year-on-year to $9.383 billion, Shell’s reached $21.4 billion, up 36% year-on-year, and Exxon Mobil’s net profit was $20.89 billion, up about 6% year-on-year.

Total, FINA and ELF are global integrated energy producers and suppliers, headquartered in Paris, France. They are the largest oil and gas producers in Africa and the Middle East, ranking fourth in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

At present, Daudal has 28 refineries, 13 of which are wholly owned, and operates lubricating oil operations in more than 110 countries.