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Price Trend of Rare Earth in China’s Domestic Market is Stable on Jan. 9

The Rare Earth Index (REI) was 346 points on Jan. 8, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.40% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 27.68% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

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The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 399.5 million yuan/ton, 1.655 million yuan/ton and 660,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 315,500 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.21 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 397,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 313,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 405,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.22 million yuan per ton.

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Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has comprehensively carried out special supervision work on the reorganization of the rare earth industry, which has led to the cold trade in the large domestic rare earth market and the low prices of some commodities in the rare earth market, mainly concentrated in neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply is tight, and the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable. However, due to the general situation of production and marketing of some products, the price trend of Pd-Nd oxide products has increased slightly due to the favorable support given by the national policy to the market. In the near future, large enterprise groups will have limited production, rare earth market has improved, but major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products. In addition, the recent import of rare earth oxides has been blocked, and the port of Yunnan has banned the import of Myanmar mines, resulting in a decline in import volume, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. However, due to the limited volume, the prices of some rare earth products have declined, but most of the products have temporarily stabilized.

Eight inspecting groups composed of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Natural Resources and other ministries went to various places and launched special inspecting actions against eight provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, which are the main producing areas of rare earths. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks, and conducted special supervision from September 2018 to January 2019. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringent inspection will not decrease in the near future, and the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry will have a positive impact on the rare earth industry. However, the import and export of rare earth industry will be limited in the near future. In addition, the recent cold turnover of the rare earth industry, the price trend of the rare earth market is expected to decline steadily.

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Summary of LME Metals on Jan. 8

LONDON, Jan. 8 (Reuters) – Aluminum prices fell on Tuesday as bullish speculators continued to put more pressure on them, while other basic metals did not perform well until the end of Sino-US trade negotiations.

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Aluminum has performed poorest on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in the past two months because of concerns about oversupply. After the United States announced that it would lift sanctions on Russia’s aluminium industry, concerns about oversupply rose.

“I’ve been quite pessimistic about the aluminium market for some time, and I expect to see further declines in the coming months,” said Ross Strachan, senior macrocommodity analyst at Kaishou.

Aluminum closed down 0.8% at $1,864.50 a tonne in the final open call, reversing some of the gains recorded last week after hitting a minimum of about $1,785.50 a year.

Steven Winberg, a member of the U.S. trade delegation, said Tuesday that trade negotiations between the United States and China would continue on Wednesday. At present, the two largest economies in the world are seeking to resolve their fierce trade disputes.

This uncertainty leads to a weakening of market activity, Strachan said. “I think people are hesitating before we get any information about trade negotiations or the closure of the U.S. government,” he said. The news has been working behind the scenes.

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LME copper fell 0.3% to $5,906 a tonne.

Zinc fell 0.5% to $2,485.

Nickel rose 0.4% to $11,190.

Tin rose 1% to $19,940.

Lead rose 0.8% to $1,969.

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Ammonium chloride has price but no buyer at all, price cuts are also useless

In the past 2018, no matter how successful the fertilizer enterprises are, whether happy or sad, they also turn to 2019, a brand new beginning, a new year about price competition. It can be said that the price of ammonium chloride Market in 2018 is good, the price level is at a high level, but under the current off-season, it is also difficult to escape the “wolf” situation of oversupply and weak demand, and manufacturers can only compromise and then come to a bleak end.

Previously Xiaobian highly admired one of the industry’s predecessors said: “Price can solve the problem is not a problem”, after listening to it, I really agree, and indeed, ammonium chloride is in a state of no market value, not just by adjusting prices can solve the dilemma. Now the ammonium chloride market is in a low ebb, pending orders are generally executed, new orders are light or even stagnated, and the downstream forward order delivery progress is slow. It is known that the mainstream ex-factory quotation of wet ammonium in East China is about 620-650 yuan/ton, while that of dry ammonium is about 750 yuan/ton. The actual turnover is lower than that. Under the dual pressure of gas limitation and environmental protection in Southwest China, some ammonium chloride enterprises still limit or stop production, and there is still a large plant planning to stop and repair next month, although this is also in the process of price reduction, the mainstream ex-factory quotation of dry ammonium is about 700-740 yuan/ton. Transactions are negotiable, especially the outward price is very low; the selling price of dry ammonium in the Bayuquan Harbor is 830-850 yuan/ton or a little low, and the futures price is relatively low; the detailed prices of other regions are invited to the members of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, as soon as you know.

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The hot spot of market concern is where will ammonium chloride go next? That depends on how the favorable and negative factors will play in this “battle” without smoke of gunpowder.

First of all, although there are good, but the expectations are not high. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of the joint alkali enterprises is 66.9%. Some of the joint alkali enterprises are still in the stage of production restriction due to environmental protection inspection. In addition, a few joint alkali enterprises in southwest China stop production or production restriction due to the limited supply of natural gas, and some manufacturers plan to stop production next month, which means that there is still a gap in the supply of liquid ammonia in the market near the Spring Festival. Small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises or extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises may stop production later, but from the point of view of large enterprises, the stock pressure of ammonium chloride manufacturers will be alleviated relatively in advance, and the export tariff will be boosted. Although the tariff of ammonium chloride for fertilizer has been abolished last year, the export tariff of ternary compound fertilizer will be abolished this year. The consumption of the supporting material, ammonium chloride, may increase.

Next, Likong frequently interferes with the ammonium chloride market. Considering the production cost, most ammonium chloride enterprises should continue to maintain the high-load production level, excluding the ammonium chloride enterprises that are ready to resume production but have been delayed again and again. The overall start-up rate of other enterprises should be maintained at about 6-70%, and after the Spring Festival, the ammonium chloride plant of a factory in Dalian and Henan is facing re-production, which will be in the market at that time. There will be big waves on the market, and the supply of raw materials will increase; the new orders of ammonium chloride production enterprises are light, even no actual transaction recently, which leads to the increasing inventory; according to statistics, the overall starting rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is less than 40%, and the sales of finished products are not good, the inventory pressure is low, and the enthusiasm of raw material fertilizer procurement is low; TRADERS’buying attitude is not rising or falling. Especially far away from all kinds of “hot potato” operation mode, keeping a cautious look at ammonium chloride, the pre-purchased supply is also stepping up shipments, and the price of concessional sales; the urea market is constantly low and continue to be short-sighted, so the support for ammonium chloride is not too much to expect; according to the understanding of a southern port, ammonium chloride supply is sufficient, and the port stays in time. The length and slow export speed have delayed the sales progress and intensified the sales pressure in the domestic market.

Finally, overall, the high price level of ammonium chloride is gratifying, but the current market is light and the turnover is not much, which leads to the gradual lack of confidence of manufacturers; the difficulties faced are that there are not many orders to be issued, the actual turnover is small, the inventory pressure is rising constantly, and under the overall starting level of about 70%, the supply will also be “nowhere to put”, even if the price reduction is difficult to solve. The reality of poor demand is that it is hard to recover. But after all, when the Spring Festival is approaching, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises will reserve appropriate amount of raw material fertilizer during the Spring Festival, or to some extent, alleviate the pressure of ammonium chloride enterprises’shipment and inventory, but the price should not be too expected, and there is room for decline, which should be mainly a slow downward trend.

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COMEX October 19th Copper Review

New York, October 19 news, COMEX copper prices rebounded on Friday, after the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and the leaders of the two delegations concentrated their calls to soothe the market anxiety.

COMEX October copper futures contract rose 0.0305 US dollars, or 1.1%, to close at 2.7680 US dollars per pound, ending the five-day decline.

The most active December contract rose $0.0315 to close at $2.7780 per pound.

Concerns about the weakening demand for raw materials commonly used in construction and manufacturing around China’s economic slowdown and trade disputes have dragged down copper prices by more than 16% from the four-year highs mentioned in June.

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China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Friday that China’s GDP in the third quarter increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the growth rate fell to a nine-and-a-half-year low, and the industry weakened. The investment in infrastructure and manufacturing industries dragged down the growth rate of overall fixed asset investment, and consumption did not show any significant improvement.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said on Friday that the recent stock market volatility and decline were caused by many factors. The bubble has been greatly reduced. It can be said that the adjustment and clearing of the stock market is creating good investment opportunities for long-term healthy development. Meanwhile, China The government will deepen reform and opening up and there is no reason not to have full confidence in the broad prospects for China’s economic development.

China’s “one line and two meetings” high-level attitudes have eased market tensions. The central bank governor Yi Gang said that the recent stock market volatility is mainly affected by investor expectations and sentiment. Overall, the current stock market valuation has been at a historically low level, which is in contrast to China’s stable economic fundamentals. The central bank is also studying the introduction of targeted measures to alleviate corporate financing difficulties.

Liu Shiyu, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, will continue to express a number of measures to stabilize stock market confidence in the morning, including the CSRC’s encouragement of local governments to manage various funds, qualified private equity funds, and brokerage products, respectively. The new fund will help listed companies with development prospects but temporarily fall into operational difficulties to solve the stock pledge dilemma; the China Insurance Regulatory Commission will allow insurance products to set up special products to participate in the liquidity risk of listed companies’ stock pledge.

Benefiting from the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and the leaders of the two delegations, the stock market uneasiness eased slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 2.6% on Friday, the biggest one-day gain in nearly two and a half months. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.97%.

The base metals market has also been boosted.

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A senior analyst at Macquarie Bank said that infrastructure construction data and strong construction start-ups are positive for the market.

Copper prices are often fluctuated by the market’s impact on China’s economic growth, with China accounting for about 50% of global copper demand. Copper prices were dominated by macro market volatility this week.

Investors have become increasingly uneasy in recent weeks due to factors such as rising US Treasury yields, trade war concerns and global economic growth.

Analysts at Commerzbank said in a report that the slowdown in China’s economic growth reflects that “trade disputes with the United States may begin to have an impact.”