In the past 2018, no matter how successful the fertilizer enterprises are, whether happy or sad, they also turn to 2019, a brand new beginning, a new year about price competition. It can be said that the price of ammonium chloride Market in 2018 is good, the price level is at a high level, but under the current off-season, it is also difficult to escape the “wolf” situation of oversupply and weak demand, and manufacturers can only compromise and then come to a bleak end.
Previously Xiaobian highly admired one of the industry’s predecessors said: “Price can solve the problem is not a problem”, after listening to it, I really agree, and indeed, ammonium chloride is in a state of no market value, not just by adjusting prices can solve the dilemma. Now the ammonium chloride market is in a low ebb, pending orders are generally executed, new orders are light or even stagnated, and the downstream forward order delivery progress is slow. It is known that the mainstream ex-factory quotation of wet ammonium in East China is about 620-650 yuan/ton, while that of dry ammonium is about 750 yuan/ton. The actual turnover is lower than that. Under the dual pressure of gas limitation and environmental protection in Southwest China, some ammonium chloride enterprises still limit or stop production, and there is still a large plant planning to stop and repair next month, although this is also in the process of price reduction, the mainstream ex-factory quotation of dry ammonium is about 700-740 yuan/ton. Transactions are negotiable, especially the outward price is very low; the selling price of dry ammonium in the Bayuquan Harbor is 830-850 yuan/ton or a little low, and the futures price is relatively low; the detailed prices of other regions are invited to the members of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, as soon as you know.
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The hot spot of market concern is where will ammonium chloride go next? That depends on how the favorable and negative factors will play in this “battle” without smoke of gunpowder.
First of all, although there are good, but the expectations are not high. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of the joint alkali enterprises is 66.9%. Some of the joint alkali enterprises are still in the stage of production restriction due to environmental protection inspection. In addition, a few joint alkali enterprises in southwest China stop production or production restriction due to the limited supply of natural gas, and some manufacturers plan to stop production next month, which means that there is still a gap in the supply of liquid ammonia in the market near the Spring Festival. Small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises or extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises may stop production later, but from the point of view of large enterprises, the stock pressure of ammonium chloride manufacturers will be alleviated relatively in advance, and the export tariff will be boosted. Although the tariff of ammonium chloride for fertilizer has been abolished last year, the export tariff of ternary compound fertilizer will be abolished this year. The consumption of the supporting material, ammonium chloride, may increase.
Next, Likong frequently interferes with the ammonium chloride market. Considering the production cost, most ammonium chloride enterprises should continue to maintain the high-load production level, excluding the ammonium chloride enterprises that are ready to resume production but have been delayed again and again. The overall start-up rate of other enterprises should be maintained at about 6-70%, and after the Spring Festival, the ammonium chloride plant of a factory in Dalian and Henan is facing re-production, which will be in the market at that time. There will be big waves on the market, and the supply of raw materials will increase; the new orders of ammonium chloride production enterprises are light, even no actual transaction recently, which leads to the increasing inventory; according to statistics, the overall starting rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is less than 40%, and the sales of finished products are not good, the inventory pressure is low, and the enthusiasm of raw material fertilizer procurement is low; TRADERS’buying attitude is not rising or falling. Especially far away from all kinds of “hot potato” operation mode, keeping a cautious look at ammonium chloride, the pre-purchased supply is also stepping up shipments, and the price of concessional sales; the urea market is constantly low and continue to be short-sighted, so the support for ammonium chloride is not too much to expect; according to the understanding of a southern port, ammonium chloride supply is sufficient, and the port stays in time. The length and slow export speed have delayed the sales progress and intensified the sales pressure in the domestic market.
Finally, overall, the high price level of ammonium chloride is gratifying, but the current market is light and the turnover is not much, which leads to the gradual lack of confidence of manufacturers; the difficulties faced are that there are not many orders to be issued, the actual turnover is small, the inventory pressure is rising constantly, and under the overall starting level of about 70%, the supply will also be “nowhere to put”, even if the price reduction is difficult to solve. The reality of poor demand is that it is hard to recover. But after all, when the Spring Festival is approaching, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises will reserve appropriate amount of raw material fertilizer during the Spring Festival, or to some extent, alleviate the pressure of ammonium chloride enterprises’shipment and inventory, but the price should not be too expected, and there is room for decline, which should be mainly a slow downward trend.
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