On August 2, 2018, there were 2 kinds of commodities that rose in the price list of the fluorine chemical industry. There were 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 product was changed to 0. The main commodities that have risen are: chloroform (0.63%) and aluminum fluoride (dry method) (0.41%); the main commodities falling are: cryolite (-0.43%) and fluorite (-0.19%).

On the 2nd, the market trend of fluorine chemical raw materials declined slightly. The price of raw fluorite was 2675 yuan/ton, the mainstream of fluorite market in northern China was 2600-2700 yuan/ton, and the price of southern fluorite market was 2600-2800 yuan/ton. The fluorite installation of the parking was not broken, the phoenix installation started to rise, the spot supply was relieved, and the fluorite price declined slightly, but the decline was limited. In addition, the recent downstream refrigerant industry has a price reduction demand, the price of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. As of the 2nd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11033.33 yuan/ton. The market of hydrofluoric acid market has a downward trend. It is expected that the fluorine chemical industry will be slightly later. Go lower.

Boosted by the rebound in demand, the plastics market has rebounded recently. In the later period, plastic prices may oscillate in view of increased supply and falling costs.

Since July, the demand for shed film has increased, and the enthusiasm of low-end replenishment of traders and downstream enterprises has increased, and PE prices have risen. Technically, plastic prices are still in the downtrend channel, and whether the 1901 contract can stand at 9,560 yuan / ton is doubtful.

Demand is gradually picking up

In June, demand was not good and plastic prices continued to decline. However, after hitting a new low in the past year, the enthusiasm of the downstream companies for replenishment has rebounded, and the gradual improvement in the demand for shed film has further strengthened this replenishment behavior. At present, the downstream packaging film operating rate is stable; the shed film operating load is 23%, although it is low, but it continues to rise. Therefore, with the arrival of the greenhouse film consumption season, the demand for plastics is gradually increasing.

Demand is picking up, PE supply is tight, and stocks are falling. As of July 26, Huadong Petrochemical’s PE inventory was 50,265 tons, down 9535 tons from the high point in early July, a decrease of 15.94%; the inventory of Huadong warehouse was 126,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the high point in early July. The decline was 13.70%; the social inventory was 217,965 tons, a decrease of 35,485 tons from the high point in early July, a decrease of 14%. Due to the low inventory, the willingness to replenish the market is further enhanced, thus stimulating the rise in methanol prices.

The maintenance device is restarted one after another.

In the early stage, the price of plastics was low, and the efficiency of enterprises was not good. In addition, consumption was in the off-season. Many PE manufacturers chose equipment maintenance at the end of June and early July, and the production capacity reached 6.26 million tons/year. However, after the consumption rebounded and the price rose, the maintenance device resumed production in a large area, and some of the remaining devices will resume production in early August. In August, only Daqing Petrochemical’s 760,000 tons/year plant was scheduled to be discontinued.

It should be noted that the recent depreciation of the Renminbi, the cost of imported ethylene and plastic products will rise, and the import volume may decline in the later period. In addition, China’s tariffs on the United States are counter-productive, ethylene and plastic products are among them, while domestic imports of ethylene and plastics from the United States account for a large proportion, which may affect imports, and the latter market will have domestic output. The degree of dependence will increase.

Crude oil and coal are easy to fall

In August, the consumption of refined oil products is coming to an end, and the support for demand for crude oil prices has weakened. In addition, the number of active drilling in the United States continues to increase, production continues to be high, and US crude oil prices are weak. In the Middle East, although sanctions against Iran have affected the country’s exports, other OPEC member states are working hard to increase production, and the crude oil operation has a high probability of moving down.

In terms of coal, the peak of summer electricity consumption is coming to an end, and the inventory of coal-fired power companies has begun to accumulate, and coal prices have fallen sharply.

Crude oil and coal are easy to fall and hard to rise, and PE costs are bound to fall.

Market outlook

In summary, the peak season of greenhouse film consumption is approaching, coupled with the buying up and not buying down the psychology to promote downstream goods, plastic demand is picking up. However, the early maintenance devices have resumed production, and the increase in supply will alleviate the current tight supply problem. At the same time, the prices of upstream crude oil and coal have weakened, and the support for the plastics market has weakened. Based on the above judgments, the price of plastics does not have a basis for a sharp rise, and the recent market should treat prices with a short-term rebound.

The Malaysian government said that the bauxite ban imposed since 2016 will continue to be delayed until the end of the year due to the accumulation of bauxite deposits.

Malaysia was previously the largest importer of bauxite in China, but unregulated mining caused severe damage to the bauxite mining site in eastern Pahang, causing the government to ban bauxite mining operations in early 2016.

At the end of 2015, neighboring country Indonesia banned the export of bauxite. Malaysia quickly filled the gap and once became the largest bauxite supplier in China with a monthly export volume of 3.5 million tons.

Former Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar had estimated that 10 million tons of bauxite reserves would still be processed until March.

On July 30, 2018, there were one type of commodities that rose in the price of the fluorine chemical industry, and one product that fell in total, and three commodities that went up and down to zero. The main commodities that rose were: chloroform (1.24%); the main commodities that fell were: aluminum fluoride (dry method) (-2.76%).

On the 30th, the market for fluorine chemical raw materials was temporarily stable. The price of raw fluorite was 2690 yuan/ton. The mainstream of fluorite market in northern China was 2600-2700 yuan/ton. The price of southern fluorite market was 2600-2800 yuan/ton. The fluorite installation of the parking was not broken, the phoenix installation started to rise, the spot supply was relieved, and the fluorite price fluctuated, but the decline was limited. In addition, the recent downstream refrigerant industry has a price reduction demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market is 11233.33 yuan/ton as of the 30th. The hydrofluoric acid market has a downward trend in the later stage. It is expected that the fluorine chemical industry will be late. Slightly lower.

First, the price trend
According to the statistics of business clubs, the zinc price has been falling all the way in March 2018. As of March 31, the price of zinc fell to 24,832.50 yuan per ton, which was 5.85% lower than the price of 2,6375.00 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month (March 1). It is the metal that has fallen the most in the non-ferrous metal sector during the same period. Overall, zinc prices fell by 5.85% in March and rose by 6.00% year-on-year. Zinc prices have a tendency to converge with 2017 prices.

Second, the market trend analysis

Products: The International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) reported that in 2018, the global zinc production capacity will increase by 880,000 tons, and lead production capacity will increase by 123,000 tons. Joao Jorge, director of market research and statistics at ILZSG, said that due to zinc mining and project expansion, the tight market conditions for the global zinc market will ease this year.

Inventory: As of March 31, the Shanghai Futures Exchange futures zinc warehouse receipts 42396 tons, an increase of 4,987 tons from the beginning of March 37, inventory 37,409 tons. Futures zinc stocks rose, zinc supply shortage pressure fell, and the zinc price was bearish.

Macroeconomics: According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the January-February period, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 968.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. In 41 industries, the profit of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 11.9%. Non-ferrous smelting profits fell, forcing the zinc price downward pressure to increase, negatively affecting the zinc market.

International Business: Bunker Hill Mining of Toronto, Canada announced that it will restart a 100-year-old mine in Idaho. The company stated that it will consider reopening the mine before the end of 2018 and carrying out large-scale lead-zinc mine production within about two years.

Third, the market outlook

In March, the general trend of zinc prices fell, mainly due to the gradual increase in supply in the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the weak demand for various degrees, and on the basis of this caused many bad news in the market. Business analysts believe that: supply and demand fundamentals, zinc supply shortage has eased, the recent decline in zinc prices, but the zinc market is still in short supply in 2018, the recent price reduction is more like the release of 2017 high zinc pressure Instead of the lack of zinc demand. After April, as zinc demand continues to increase, there will still be a price recovery period for zinc prices in 2018, and the price may reach the peak of zinc price in 2017.