Throughout the July, PVC market to rally-based, and pull up a larger range. To East China, for example, the current market in East China 6800-6900 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the East China market 6250-6350 yuan / ton up 550 yuan / ton, or about 8.73%. And in recent days, the gains have slowed down, the market to maintain high order to run the pattern, then, then the PVC will rise? Here we have to analyze:

PVC cost to continue to support

From the upstream raw material calcium carbide point of view, with the arrival of China’s peak summer electricity, coal prices continue to rise in the short term. In the coal prices rose, coupled with the environmental protection of the stringent production of calcium carbide by a certain impact, leading to calcium carbide prices have risen. Recently, the mainstream of calcium carbide market stabilized, local still up slightly. Up to now, the mainstream offer of calcium carbide in the Northwest region is still maintained at 2,500-2700 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia, a local mainstream product price of calcium carbide in the 2500-2730 yuan / ton. On the whole, the calcium carbide market after a brief consolidation, will continue to rise in the market.

Supply side is still tight

Up to now, China’s PVC production enterprises in the overall operating rate of about 70%, of which Shandong letter of a PVC 200,000 tons / year device July 26 temporary fault parking has not yet resumed, the second phase of 400,000 tons / year ; Lutai chemical PVC 36 million tons / year device is still parking maintenance, the initial expected by the end of August to resume driving; Jun is the old factory area of ​​360,000 tons / year device on July 21 maintenance, is still overhaul, is expected around the beginning of August To resume production. And most manufacturers inventory at a low level, delivery orders mainly supply side is still tight.

Downstream wait and see atmosphere

The current environmental security inspection is still in the North China part of the products enterprises in the rectification stage, the downstream business is slightly contradictory to the high price, and plasticizers are also larger, end products prices slower, some orders less customers take the goods cautious, Wait and see atmosphere.

In summary, the next month will continue the current situation, and more to maintain a high run, do not rule out the existence of small concussion. The latter still need to pay attention to environmental protection, security checks and national policy aspects of the impact of futures and downstream goods may pay attention to the situation.

According to Reuters, the US refinery production is higher than ever before, seeking to meet the growing demand, but mainly from overseas demand.

Last year, the United States became the world’s largest net exporter of refined oil, which is the natural result of the US crude oil production since the beginning of the shale oil revolution in 2010. The United States in the global oil market, the traditional role of a fundamental change, after the United States is the world’s major oil import and consuming countries.

US crude oil exports in 2017 is expected to record a record high, making the foreign oil market for US refiners in the future growth prospects and profit margins more and more important.

Shale oil producers offer rich and cheap domestic crude oil supplies to refineries to give them the raw materials needed to produce internationally competitive refined oils.

The United States in 2016 to the foreign market net exports of 2.5 million barrels / day of refined oil, setting a record. According to US government data, 10 years ago, the United States net imports up to 2.3 million barrels / day.

The exuberance boosted the margins of large US refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero and made up for the lack of growth in US energy demand this year.

According to Reuters on Tuesday (July 18) reported that an oil official said Libya oil production reached 103 million barrels / day, compared with last month production did not change significantly.

Baker Hughes (Baker Hughes) on Friday (July 14) that since July 14, the United States drilling and the addition of two drilling equipment, the current total number of 765 units. The additional equipment model is RIG-OL-USA-BHI. The model has increased by an average of five units over the past four weeks, the slowest number ever since November 2016.

Similarly, US shale oil production is expected to continue for eight months, both in July to increase the production capacity of 112,000 barrels per day to August reached 5.58 million barrels per day.

“The higher oil production in the US, Libya and Nigeria should be adjusted for oil prices at this time,” said Gene McGillian, research manager for crude oil analysis firm Traditional Energy.

According to the US Energy Agency EIA and the International Energy Agency IEA report shows that the July 7 week of US crude oil inventories fell to raise last week’s oil prices, but the industrial oil stocks remain high, leading to rising oil prices were curbed.

Oil consultancy Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob commented that today’s market is no movement, it seems to be on the sidelines. Need to re-adjust the oil products, but the adjustment is quite large.

Traders said that since April 24, with the decline in oil demand and inventory levels, the US gasoline crack spread to the highest.

Although OPEC member countries, Russia and non-OPEC oil producers have been working to cut production since January, oil prices have fallen to a much lower position than in 2014 due to rising inventories.

Although OPEC cut to the oil prices must support, but the two exemptions Libya and Nigeria and the United States increased oil production, the market still has a significant impact on oil prices.

Kuwait said on Friday (July 14) that the market is struggling to recover due to rising demand. It is premature to limit production in Libya and Nigeria. OPEC member states will discuss the impact of this decision with non-OPEC producers in Russia on 24 July.

There are signs that oil demand is increasing. Monday (July 17) market data show that China’s refined oil demand for oil in June is the second highest in history. OPEC expressed the hope that the continued demand for oil in the second half of 2017 would reduce excess inventories.

Synthetic rubber has experienced a decline since mid to late February, the end of June early July rebound, but the rebound only to maintain a week or so. According to the business monitoring, butadiene rubber from the beginning of the 11183 yuan / ton up to the middle of the 11510 yuan / ton, or 2.93%; after the weak down to 11,274 yuan / ton; styrene butadiene rubber from the beginning of 11200 yuan / ton up to Mid-month 11828 yuan / ton, or 5.61%, after the weak decline to 11,657 yuan / ton. Overall the July synthetic rubber market showed signs of fatigue.

Lubon Industry Co.,Ltd synthetic rubber analyst Xu Xiaokong that the impact of synthetic rubber July trend of three factors: First, the synthetic rubber after a few months of sharp decline in manufacturers and traders have a rebound in the mentality of demand, so in July petrochemical manufacturers tentative Raise the price of synthetic rubber. According to the business monitoring, in early July in the oil, Sinopec raised butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber price of 400 to 500 yuan / ton, some traders took the opportunity to sharply up with the rise. Second, the early downstream tire manufacturers to cover short positions demand to stimulate the price of synthetic rubber companies will increase prices, but because the market outlook is uncertain, tire manufacturers do not want a lot of procurement, trading more than a single small, the demand for the face of synthetic rubber prices support The intensity of the weak; Finally, a slight reduction in rubber stocks, but the base is still large, unfavorable synthetic rubber prices rose sharply. According to the business community to understand, as of July 10, Qingdao Bonded Zone rubber stocks to 27.08 million tons, compared with June 15 down 8,000 tons, down 2.9%. The combination of these factors makes the July synthetic rubber prices on the weak.

For the latter part of the trend, the synthesis of synthetic rubber analyst Xu Xiaokong that, on the one hand, the current petrochemical manufacturers in the early days of the tentative rise is not successful, in mid-July has been down, according to the news agency monitoring, July 14, Sinopec down the butadiene rubber, SBR ex-factory price of 400 yuan / ton, traders with the fall. On the other hand, 7-8 month is the downstream tire factory starts off-season, rubber demand will remain in the doldrums. On the whole, the current situation is not optimistic about the overall industry chain, July is difficult to appear weak to strong situation, synthetic rubber is expected in late July will continue to decline slightly, the range of 300 to 500 yuan / ton.

As early as 2007, maize deep processing industrial use was opened, leading to the surge in corn prices, due to price increases too fast, in order to ease the contradiction between deep processing industry and feed aquaculture, so the state decided to limit the size of corn deep processing, corn deep processing industry The proportion of total corn consumption in the proportion of control within 26%; and all new and expansion of corn deep processing project, must be approved by the State Council investment authorities. In the same year, “opinions” are as follows:

On September 5, 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Circular on Printing and Distributing the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Maize Deep Processing Industry (Development and Reform Industry [2007] No. 2245) proposed that the corn deep processing project be included in the restricted foreign investment industry directory , During the pilot period temporarily do not allow foreign investment in bio-liquid fuel ethanol production projects and mergers, acquisitions.

After a lapse of ten years, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to cancel the corn deep processing, fuel ethanol and other areas of foreign capital restrictions:

June 28, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document, “foreign investment industry guidance catalog (revised in 2017)” has been the CPC Central Committee and State Council agreed to be released, since July 28, 2017 from the implementation.

Corn deep processing, fuel ethanol with ten years to complete the gorgeous reversal, the apparent “directory” after the implementation of the better to attract foreign investment and construction, improve jobs, promote China’s economic growth, on the other hand can also introduce foreign advanced Technology, experience, and promote China’s deep processing of corn and fuel ethanol technology upgrading.

But the pros and cons of any coexistence, foreign capital restrictions are canceled, is the “wolf” or “cake” is still open to question. On the current actual situation, for our ethanol industry, the market did not become larger, but more people involved. Before the policy protection, only the disputes between their own people, but the policy to relax the signal issued after more mature than our foreign-funded enterprises will be introduced, industrial competition will intensify, and the integration between enterprises, the annexation will intensify , Competition is bound to increase.

So later, the existing domestic enterprises are emboldened to meet the open market, in addition to relying on demand side of the support, but also rely on their own industrial technology upgrades and transformation. Foreign capital needs China’s land market, domestic private enterprises also need foreign-funded enterprises of capital and technology, so how to achieve foreign capital and private complement each other, need to run to know.