Because the cost of raw materials and the strong support of railway transport price increases, the recent production companies around the very price hike plan and strong will, in the short term the market price is strong. While the downstream demand is still weak, short-term wait-and-see strong willingness to accept price increases. The industry believes that the fertilizer market change dilemma.

The current market supply and demand structure analysis, manufacturers only sporadic sign, high turnover is unlikely. Wait until the end of November after the winter order of compound fertilizer enterprises launched, the market trend is clear, fertilizer prices can be out of the doldrums.

A ammonium sulfur raw material prices continue to rise, but the downstream production of compound fertilizer Co., a demand for ammonium ammonium, a smooth operation of the market, enterprises orders with limited space, single transaction based. Sulfur, sulfuric acid, ammonia and other raw materials prices and freight cost of ammonium strong support, enterprises in order to delivery, most orders can be sent to the new year, short-term sales pressure. In the case of price instability, some companies began to see the market, do not rush to put goods again. Expected short-term ammonium prices continue to slow slightly to consolidation, the local behavior of the lord. Last week (November 14 ~ 20 days) 55% powdery ammonium average ex factory price of 1620 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 2.86%; the average wholesale price of 1750 yuan, up 2.22%.

Diammonium Tuesday ammonium market remained stable. After the production of phosphate and compound fertilizer enterprises, very price will increase day by day. During the manufacturers tentative rises in price, but the downstream acceptance is not high, no significant fluctuations in price. Last week, the domestic 64% phosphate factory price of 1975 yuan, the wholesale price of 2250 yuan, and the previous week. The international market prices were mixed, in Pakistan phosphate demand, driven in part area prices, but this is only temporary, Pakistan DAP demand soon end. In addition, the market speculation that Chinese may cancel the export tariffs diammonium 100 yuan.

Prices continue to rise in space

at the end of November, OPEC meeting resolution will be members of the specific implementation plans to limit production. When agreement is reached at the beginning of next year, crude oil supply and demand will be balanced.

Approaching winter, the market will enter the traditional consumption season, the international crude oil price is expected to exceed $55 per barrel, which will cost from the end of polyolefin price formation support. In addition, petrochemical manufacturers inventory is still a low level, last week was increased slightly, but the overall delivery pressure, PP prices may be up there.

* on the international crude oil prices is expected to rise to speculate:

Last week, the international crude oil prices rose slightly, the expected production is the main influencing factors. However, OPEC and Russian crude oil output high, decline in U.S. crude oil production trend has stalled, difficult to alleviate the problem of excess supply.

The external surface of the macro, the current oil market is not clear, the United States WTI12 month crude oil futures set prices on Friday (November 18th) rose $0.14, or 0.31%, at $45.56 / barrel, oil prices rose sharply higher Friday, last week, for the first four weeks; recipients in the market increasingly expected OPEC (OPEC) way to limit production will be found in the end of this month. At the same time, ICE January Brent crude oil futures electronic trading prices rose $0.86, or 1.87%, at $46.86 / barrel. Brent crude oil rose last week, for five weeks for the first time. According to Iran’s Shana news agency, Iran’s oil minister on Saturday (November 19th) in Tehran and OPEC Secretary General Barkindo (Mohammed Barkindo) said the negotiations will meet in November 30th, held in Vienna, OPEC is likely to stop oil production agreement signed on, once the agreement is signed, the price of oil will be may be increased to $55 a barrel. Some analysts said oil prices rise or fall, has been meeting in November 30th before the OPEC statement based on state. The price depends on the performance of OPEC long oil production agreement optimistic or pessimistic. Whether crude oil production is still uncertain, but recently the dollar is strong go all the way, and in the follow-up to the Fed rate hike expectations, the dollar is still strong may. And the RMB exchange rate has hit a new low of nearly eight years, put pressure on the dollar, in unstable conditions, the latter part of the RMB may still go down, the remaining impact on liquidity.

In summary, although the glycol fundamentals support foundation, but the market shocks still require external news guidance, short-term crude oil market trend is unknown, the dollar continued to strengthen, the RMB is easy or hard up, still impact on liquidity. Expected short-term ethylene glycol is still room to rise, but the increase or limited, the market will narrow the main shock.

last week, ethylene glycol market trend xianyihouyang. By the early supply side policy guidelines, commodity strong performance, ethylene glycol market is a rising market talks in Fujian rose to 6450 yuan / ton. Then (November 7-11 11) on Friday when the futures market suffered black Friday, most commodities were slaughtered, all products were dropped, ethylene glycol market also lower pressure, early last week electronic disk is experiencing daily limit, and China to discuss the market dropped back to 5 prefix, the stock market fell to 5950 yuan / ton to discuss about. But later in the week a strong stance in ethylene glycol regression fundamentals support always stable, and driven by the continued depreciation of the RMB funds and energy to do more obvious, glycol homeopathic uplink. As of Friday the East China market fell after the rebound spot talks at around 6250 yuan / ton.

The ethylene glycol market reversal is mainly affected by the peripheral news and market psychology guidance for how the trend of late, we made the following analysis:

Fundamentals, since the four quarter because of Iran and Taiwan imported cargo reduce imports decline, coupled with improved demand makes the port inventory decline, the contradiction between supply and demand supply gap caused by the ethylene glycol market become the strongest support. According to relevant statistics, as of last week four main reservoir inventory statistics in East China MEG 469 thousand tons, compared with the previous week to reduce inventory 5 thousand tons, a decline of 1.05%, ethylene glycol inventory is still below 500 thousand tons level. Device, domestic factories started as a whole load steady slight increase, but the overall increase is not yet fully reflected; and the quality of ethylene glycol on construction is still in a low state, new manufacturers in the commissioning stage, the short term is still not enough to fill the domestic market for the supply of goods, should be more nervous than expected. While on the demand side, the international crude oil prices, polyester PTA futures ferocious rally, spot market focus and raw materials prices rose, MEG, cost pressures, the downstream polyester products passive follow up, and cash flow is to enlarge the situation. At present, the overall operating performance of polyester load steady, just need to support stability, while the short-term polyester just need little probability the operating load of a significant decline in the short term, glycol fundamentals remain solid.

due to the national supply side reforms, capacity to continue to force, the traditional heating season, coal supply tight, at the beginning of November, coke prices have soared to 1765 yuan, up 200% over the beginning of 2016.

The raw materials of domestic foundation caused by this round of price surge, glyphosate required phosphorus, methanol and other raw materials prices soared 30% in a month or so, the price of glyphosate from July price 16 thousand and 900 yuan / ton, to the beginning of November 21 thousand yuan / ton price, price increase of 25%.

Winter started, demand, glyphosate prices continue to rise