Phosphate fertilizer enterprises limited production price firm future price up more space

Daily P: Enterprise Limited production price firmness, prices rose a larger space. The sky and other eight domestic enterprises have to go to the P inventory capacity to reach a consensus, 2017 eight companies were intended to cut 20~35%, the yield will be controlled at 1234 tons in . Due to the loss of industry in general, limiting the production of phosphate fertilizer enterprises combined with a firm attitude, some companies have begun a substantial production, if calculated in accordance with the limited production of 25%, next year fertilizer supply will be reduced by 400~500 million tons. Phosphate fertilizer production and high pollution, the supply side reform of the industry is also worth looking forward to. The demand side next year phosphate 100 yuan / ton tariff will be canceled or will enhance the domestic fertilizer competitiveness, boosting export growth, while India and India increased fertilizer inventory reduction RS purchasing power, India imports next year is expected to improve, is expected next year during the spring fertilizer will there is a huge gap between supply and demand, we believe that the late fertilizer prices up more space than expected. Higher probability.

Urea: next year during the spring and the gap between supply and demand will be more than 5 million tons. At present, large granule urea price of about 1515 yuan / ton , is at the bottom of this year prices have risen more than 30%, but by the coal prices and the impact of rising transportation costs, low cost urea enterprises currently only have the space furnace, coal water slurry and other leading technology can achieve profitability, profitability of the number of enterprises accounted for about 20%. Due to high production costs and environmental factors,

according to the statistics of Nitrogen Fertilizer Association, China’s urea enterprises operating rate of less than 50%. By the northern cold weather and production enterprises will be converting to other products, short-term is difficult to pick up the operating rate of urea. During the spring of next year is the season with a fertilizer, the requirement of agricultural urea accounted for roughly 60% of the annual amount of urea, the corresponding demand of about 2500 million tons, considering the industrial demand for urea and exports, is expected during the spring and the gap between supply and demand will be more than 5 million tons of urea.