According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 6, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8133 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8383 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.98%. Compared to February 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 8816 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.75%.

Entering March, the overall market for n-butanol in Shandong, China continued its downward trend from the end of February. Currently, the low-end price of n-butanol is still available for trading, but the overall atmosphere on the market is limited. The overall supply of some n-butanol in Shandong region is relatively loose, and some factories are under certain supply pressure. Therefore, currently, n-butanol factories are mainly actively offering discounts for shipments, and the overall transaction focus of n-butanol is constantly moving downwards. Some factories have quoted prices of n-butanol below 8000 yuan/ton. As of March 6th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7900-8300 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the overall supply level of n-butanol in China has improved, with factories mainly maintaining low inventory shipments and downstream users mainly restocking on dips. The overall market transactions are hovering at the low end. According to the n-butanol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8964.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9020.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%. The price has increased by 5.19% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, and this week’s market has rebounded slightly after experiencing last week’s decline. The crude oil market is on the rise, with good cost support. Styrene mainly follows changes in raw materials, and the demand for essential goods tends to stabilize with a small increase, resulting in a slight increase in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week, and the market atmosphere is stagnant. Both buyers and sellers have a clear wait-and-see attitude. Shandong has been experiencing consecutive days of poor shipments, putting pressure on some refineries’ inventory and causing prices to continue to decline. After the price drop, the follow-up of buying gas is average, with a focus on just needs.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The average quotation for PS this week is 9766.67 yuan/ton. PS cost support, with transactions mainly focused on essential purchases, and it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price may fluctuate in the short term.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10325.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

The domestic ABS market has been relatively stable recently. As of March 5th, the average price of ABS products is 11787.50 yuan/ton. The overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS is relatively strong, which enhances the support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plant operations continue to decrease, and supply pressure has significantly eased. On the demand side, due to the delayed resumption of work by downstream enterprises, ABS consumption during the cycle is average. After the merchant’s offer has increased, there is a practice of offering discounts and shipping orders. The expectation of increased demand in the short term in the future is not good, and it is expected that the ABS market may be hindered in its growth.

Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, with good cost support. However, the demand for styrene spot is still weak, and it is expected that the short-term volatility in the styrene market will mainly decrease.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.66% from the price of 5875 yuan/ton on February 1st; On March 4th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% compared to February 29th; The price of acetic anhydride has dropped by 8.94% compared to February 1st. Before the Spring Festival, the price of acetic acid remained stable, but after the holiday, there was nationwide snowfall this week, which hindered regional transportation and resulted in sluggish transactions of acetic acid. The price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreased; Before the Spring Festival, the price of acetic anhydride started at a low level, but after the holiday, acetic anhydride enterprises resumed production. The supply of acetic anhydride increased, but downstream demand remained weak. The supply and demand of acetic anhydride were weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in February.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell in February

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.06% compared to the price of 3300 yuan/ton on February 1st; On March 4th, the price of acetic acid was 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to February 29th; The price of acetic acid has dropped by 7.58% compared to February 1st. Before the holiday, downstream stocking came to an end and gradually entered a state of vacation. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and at the same time, due to the influence of weather, factory shipments were poor, and acetic acid prices remained stable; At the beginning of the holiday, the factory continued its pre holiday state with stable quotations. As the company’s inventory accumulated, downstream restocking was insufficient, coupled with rainy and snowy weather, the manufacturer’s shipments were hindered, and inventory pressure increased. In addition, acetic acid companies started operating at a high level, resulting in a high supply of acetic acid and a fluctuating decline in the acetic acid market price.

Future prospects

According to data analysts from Business Society, the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride; After the holiday, acetic anhydride enterprises started at a high level, coupled with a significant increase in acetic anhydride production capacity, the supply of acetic anhydride increased; In terms of demand, the demand for acetic anhydride remains weak. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, supply and demand have weakened, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and rose in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9531 yuan/ton to 10012 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.05%, and the price increased by 5.5% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose, and the raw material pure benzene market was operating strongly. The cost pressure continued to increase, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone market was not high. Downstream solvents were gradually closed, and chemical fibers were purchased on demand. Due to cost pressure, the market low price continued to decrease.

After the holiday, the domestic price of cyclohexanone tends to be strong, and the price of pure benzene has increased, resulting in greater cost pressure. Under cost pressure, the offer for cyclohexanone has been actively raised, and downstream demand has been followed up, resulting in a decrease in low-priced supply in the market.

On the cost side, the price of pure benzene at ports in East China continued to rise significantly in February, with a slight decline in the latter half of the year. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene at Shengyishe was 8478.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market saw a slight increase in February. Before the Spring Festival, transportation was affected by rainy and snowy weather in some northern regions, and downstream stocking was concentrated. The supply of caprolactam in the market was tight, and prices were firm. After the Spring Festival, the price of upstream pure benzene has continued to rise, with strong cost support. The price of caprolactam has also risen, and the market continues to show a preference trend. Towards the end of the month, the price of pure benzene has fallen, and caprolactam has followed suit with a slight pullback. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Shengyishe is 13912.50 yuan/ton. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is expected to decline weakly, and the cost support will weaken. Downstream demand will follow up, and the market spot supply will be stable and abundant. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

Summary of prices for ethylene oxide in February

In February, the price of ethylene oxide slightly increased by 1.52%. According to data from Business Society, as of February 29th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6700 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6700 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6750 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The correlation between the price increase of ethylene oxide in February and the demand of downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high. This is mainly due to the increase in upstream raw material ethylene prices, which increases the cost pressure on ethylene oxide enterprises and transmits the rising water to ethylene oxide. The price of ethylene glycol, a related product, has remained volatile at a high level after an earlier increase, which has also given positive expectations to the supply side of ethylene oxide.

Future market forecast

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide may have positive expectations with the start of terminal real estate construction. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will fluctuate strongly in March.