In August, the domestic EVA market saw a narrow consolidation, with a clear divergence in trends between photovoltaic grade and general materials, and an overall lack of unilateral upward and downward momentum. At the beginning of the month, due to partial equipment maintenance and low inventory support from petrochemical plants, EVA remained at a high level; Affected by the traditional off-season in the middle of the month, transactions were weak and prices slightly decreased. As of August 18th, the benchmark price of EVA was 10333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% from the beginning of the month at 10383 yuan/ton.
On the supply side, the operating rate of the domestic EVA industry remained in the range of 64-70% in August, with some devices undergoing maintenance and load reduction; Production enterprises have increased their efforts to switch to photovoltaic materials, resulting in an 8-10% increase in photovoltaic grade output compared to the previous period, while the output of general materials has been passively compressed. The overseas 300000 ton EVA plant will resume production in mid August, and the imported goods will gradually arrive at the port to supplement the domestic supply of high-end materials. The inventory in the petrochemical plant remains low; Social inventory has accumulated slightly, with the increase mainly concentrated in general material grades, suppressing the rebound space of general material prices.
On the cost side, Brent crude oil fluctuated within the range, while naphtha drove domestic ethylene spot prices to maintain between 7900-8100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of vinyl acetate in East China is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, which does not have a strong pull on EVA. The complete cost of EVA oil head is about 8700-9100 yuan/ton, which provides support for the cost, but the downward transmission is not smooth, resulting in profit differentiation for the enterprise.
The demand side is polarized, and the production schedule of photovoltaic film companies in August increased by 6-7% compared to July. Long term cooperative orders remain stable, and the demand for photovoltaic grade EVA is supported by strong demand; Traditional downstream industries such as shoe materials and packaging are in a low season, with sluggish terminal production and only maintaining on-demand procurement, resulting in widespread price cutting and dragging down the general materials market.
Looking ahead to the future, the forecast for the future is that EVA will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Photovoltaic materials rely on adhesive film production to maintain stable prices, but there is insufficient motivation for a significant increase; General materials still face slight downward pressure due to the off-season. With the restoration of maintenance equipment and the continuous arrival of imported goods at the port, the supply is further released, and the price increase space is limited.
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