According to the monitoring data of business agency, on September 6, the domestic methanol at East China port was 2672 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the previous working day and 2.18% year-on-year. On September 6, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continued to rise. The main contract ma2301 closed at 2704 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, up 83 yuan / ton or 3.84% compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

The rising international oil price and coal price support the cost of methanol. At the same time, the main production enterprises have more equipment overhauls and reduced the supply. Some areas are affected by the weather, which affects the transportation, and the supply is tight in the short term.

In the short term, the domestic methanol market is dominated by high volatility.

On September 5, the average price of TDI market in East China was 18275 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.41% over the previous working day, and the market was sorted up. Overseas equipment maintenance, tight supply, good for the export market, limited supply of domestic main factories, tight spot, reluctant to sell goods and rising prices, poor downstream acceptance of high prices, cautious wait-and-see attitude of the industry, and a small number of orders just need to be followed up. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 18000-18200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 18300-18500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will consolidate at a high level, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On September 2, the price of zinc fell sharply

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the zinc price fell sharply on September 2, and the zinc market fell. On September 2, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 24372 yuan / ton, down 3.06% from 25142 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 7.75% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The US and the European Central Bank are about to raise interest rates, the price of zinc in London has plummeted, Europe is considering decoupling natural gas from the electricity market, and energy prices have fallen recently. It is expected that the start of zinc smelting in Europe will pick up, the speculation in the zinc market will cool down, and the supply of zinc is expected to pick up. In the domestic market, the temperature has dropped and the precipitation has increased. Sichuan Province and Chongqing have resumed normal industrial and commercial power consumption. Zinc smelters affected by power shortage have resumed operation one after another, and the support of zinc price rise has weakened.

Future forecast

European energy prices have fallen, zinc market supply is expected to recover, domestic industry and Commerce have resumed power supply, supply and demand of zinc industry chain have recovered balance, domestic macro-economy is weak, and zinc market demand is still weak. It is expected that zinc prices will fall from a high level in the future.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene is declining. The domestic price of p-xylene is 8800 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the domestic supply of p-xylene is general, and the operation of overseas units is normal. The domestic price trend of p-xylene is declining. The international oil price trend has declined recently, but the external price of PX has dropped slightly. On the 31st, the closing price in Asia was US $1037-1039 / T FOB Korea and US $1055-1057 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price is slightly lower, The downstream PTA and textile industry started to rise, and the market price trend of paraxylene in the later period was temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of domestic neopentyl glycol fluctuated and fell this month. The average price of the mainstream market of domestic neopentyl glycol dropped from 10900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.56%. On August 31, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.03, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.64% from the highest point 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 3.09% from the lowest point 46.59 on August 20, 2022. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2021 to now).

2、 Market analysis

 
This month, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol decreased slightly

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fluctuated and fell. The price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 7300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.37%. The factory price of domestic formaldehyde increased slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde decreased from 1206.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1253.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.87%. The market prices of upstream raw materials rise and fall. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of the neopentyl glycol market in the middle and early September may be dominated by a small fluctuation. At the end of the month, the market price of isobutyraldehyde in the upstream has an upward trend, the cost support has improved, the market price of the downstream coating is general, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is general. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly.