1、 Price trend
As of October 16th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6366 yuan/ton. Today, the structural differentiation of precipitated white carbon black in China continues, and the general rubber grade supply is sufficient, resulting in a narrow and weak price fluctuation; High dispersion tire specific white carbon black and gas-phase white carbon black remain strong, with brand price differences continuing to widen. General purpose precipitated white carbon black mainstream factory price ranges from 6350-6420 yuan/ton, and on-site transactions are mainly based on long-term contracts for essential needs. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to speculate and stock up.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a medium to high level, with stable operation of top factories and operating rates ranging from 75% to 82%; Small and medium-sized manufacturers can flexibly adjust the load according to orders, and the load of general grade production lines has been reduced, giving priority to ensuring high dispersion tire grade orders. The overall inventory shows differentiation, with ordinary precipitated white carbon black enterprises having high inventory and significant pressure to reduce inventory; High end modified and gas-phase white carbon black have low inventory and tight delivery cycles. There is currently no large-scale centralized maintenance plan in the short term, and the overall supply side is abundant.
Upstream costs: The supply of sodium silicate (sodium silicate), the core raw material for precipitated white carbon black, is sufficient, and the price is stable but slightly weak. There is significant pressure on the shipment of raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market fluctuates within a certain range, with slight fluctuations within the region and no obvious unilateral market trend. The prices of soda ash and quartz sand are stable. The cost of steam and industrial electricity remains stable. Overall, the support of upstream raw material costs is weak, and the cost pressure on production enterprises is not significant, but there is a lack of cost drivers to increase prices.
Downstream demand: There is a clear differentiation in the strength of downstream demand. In the tire industry, traditional replacement tire production is average, and finished product inventory is high. Tire companies have a strong willingness to control costs, and procurement remains on-demand. The formula for new energy green tires continues to promote the use of white carbon black instead of carbon black, and high dispersion brand long-term contract orders remain stable, forming strong support. The weak demand for shoe-making and ordinary rubber miscellaneous parts, insufficient orders from product companies, and reduced procurement to lower prices have dragged down the general white carbon black market. The demand for special white carbon black in the fields of silicone rubber, coating extinction, and daily chemical products is still acceptable. The orders for gas-phase white carbon black are stable, but the overall downstream cost transmission is not smooth. The enthusiasm for purchasing ordinary grades is insufficient.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term, the market for white carbon black will continue to diverge, with general precipitation grades operating weakly and steadily, limited room for price fluctuations, and high dispersion tire grade and gas-phase white carbon black remaining strong. In terms of negative factors, general white carbon black has overcapacity, and traditional rubber product demand is unlikely to have a significant rebound. Inventory pressure continues to suppress prices, and downstream tire companies maintain low inventory procurement, making it difficult for centralized replenishment to occur. On the positive side, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and green tires drive the long-term increase of high-end white carbon black. If the industry focuses on maintenance in the later stage, it is expected to temporarily tighten the supply of high-end brands.
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