1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. On March 11, the price of pure benzene was 8400-9000 yuan / ton (the average price was 8840 yuan / ton). On Friday (March 18), the price of pure benzene was 7800-8250 yuan / ton (the average price was 8120 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 720 yuan / ton or 8.14% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 24.16%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Affected by the decline of crude oil and the wide-ranging shock of Asian pure benzene in the outer disk, the cost support of pure benzene is unstable, superimposed with the weak follow-up of high priced pure benzene in the downstream and weak demand. Pure benzene fell with crude oil this week. Public health incidents in many places in China have affected transportation, limited factory shipments and inventory accumulation. In order to promote shipments, local refining enterprises in Shandong have continuously reduced prices. Although crude oil fell broadly, the price is still high, the cost pressure is prominent, and the operating rate of pure benzene decreased this week.

This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 700 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton.

On the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded after a wide decline in the external market this week. On Thursday (March 17), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1131 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $77 / ton, or 6.37%; The reference import price in East China was US $1152.5/t, with a year-on-year decrease of US $87.5/t, or 7.06%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell continuously and broadly this week. The price was 10000 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9020 yuan / ton on March 18, down 9.8% from last week and up 5.29% from the same period last year.

Aniline: the domestic aniline Market was mainly weak and stable this week. The wide range of cost support weakened, and the downstream remained rigid, which needs to be followed up. In terms of supply, during the restart of Jinling aniline plant, Huatai aniline plant operated at reduced load. The support is acceptable, and the price is weak to maintain stability. On March 18, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and decreased by 11.4% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: at present, the spot supply of styrene is relatively abundant. The downstream mainly focuses on digestion contracts, and the spot transaction is weakened. The short-term probability of styrene continues to follow the trend of crude oil.

Under the current geopolitical situation, the trend of crude oil fluctuates violently and is full of uncertainty. It is difficult for pure benzene to get rid of the influence of crude oil in the short term. Domestically, under the influence of cost pressure, the operating rate of pure benzene may still decline; Public health incidents continue to affect logistics and transportation, short-term pure benzene long short game. Pay attention to the downstream market, device dynamics, domestic pure benzene device dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

Trade name: isopropanol

The latest price on March 17: 7466.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on March 17, the focus of domestic isopropanol market was down. At present, the overall transaction in the market is relatively cold. The epidemic situation in Shandong continues, the logistics is blocked, the transaction is limited, the downstream demand is reduced, the confidence of the industry is insufficient, wait and see, and the factory reduces the quotation.

Forecast: isopropanol will mainly wait and see in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 16): 10260 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on March 16, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10260 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 94.95%. Recently, the raw material yellow phosphorus fell to 33000 yuan / ton, and the cost support fell sharply. At the same time, the downstream demand continued to maintain the rigid demand for procurement, the procurement enthusiasm was not positive, and both the buyer and the seller were cautious, The focus of phosphoric acid market began to move down. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 33000-33500 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9600-12000 yuan / ton.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to fall steadily in the short term.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (March 15): 19350 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 0.13% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is weak. There is little change in the start-up of the main TDI plants in China, the spot market is tight, the export of the terminal market is weakened, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the traffic and logistics are blocked, the downstream demand is reduced, the inquiry is generally popular, the market just needs to follow up, and the offer of the cargo holder is slightly downward. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 18500-19100 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19000-19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Aftermarket forecast: the TDI market is weak in the later stage, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (March 14): 7475 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the cryolite market in Henan is up, and the average production price in Henan is up 2.40% from yesterday. Affected by the international situation, the pressure of natural gas cost increases, the raw materials of cryolite are tense at the same time, the manufacturer’s productivity is low, the inventory is not under pressure, the downstream demand is stable, the market quotation is sorted upward, and the price quotation in a short time still needs to pay attention to the enterprise’s commencement and inventory. At present, the market holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: wait and see the cryolite market and pay attention to the market supply.