According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise on February 25. The average market price in East China was 5709 yuan / ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day and 20.44% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5708, up 72, or 1.28%.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA units

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 t / a) Device change

Yisheng Ningbo two hundred It was overhauled on February 10. It was originally planned to restart on February 24, but now it is postponed to restart in March.

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty From February 9 to the end of February, the load was reduced to 50%.

three hundred and thirty The construction started in late February increased to 80%.

Yisheng Dalian two hundred and twenty-five On February 24, it was overhauled for about two weeks.

three hundred and seventy-five It is planned to be overhauled in May.

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty About 80% of the construction started in early February.

Yangzi Petrochemical sixty-five Maintenance on March 25 and February.

Dushan energy two hundred and twenty Minor repair, to be determined.

Zhuhai Yinglishi one hundred and twenty-five It is planned to overhaul on March 26 and restart on April 10.

Yisheng Hainan two hundred It is planned to be overhauled in April.

Fuhaichuang four hundred and fifty It is planned to reduce the load by 20% – 50% in March, which will be determined according to the market situation.

In terms of devices, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million ton PTA device plans to reduce the load by 20% – 50% in March, which will be determined according to the market situation. Under the low processing cost, the maintenance of domestic factories has increased, and the current operating rate of domestic industries has dropped to around 78%.

On February 24, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $96.77/barrel, up US $4.67 or 5.07%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $95.42/barrel, up US $1.37 or 1.45%. Brent crude oil rose above $105, mainly due to the geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine, which exacerbated the market’s concerns about the interruption of energy supply.

The downstream polyester market price rose slightly with the raw materials, and the quotation of some mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Ammunition and knitting factories have resumed work one after another, and the startup rate has rebounded significantly. As of February 24, 2022, the comprehensive starting load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 61%.

Business analysts believe that the short-term crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the cost supports PTA, and the PTA maintenance plan increases from March to April. It is expected that the downstream demand will pick up, and the PTA price will remain volatile and upward.

Data monitoring showed that on February 24, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly. The opening price of the main contract was 14030 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 14085 yuan / ton, the highest price was 14230 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13965 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 14070 yuan / ton, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 238900 and the position is 253700. The spot price is adjusted with the offer, and the adjustment range is maintained at about 100 yuan / ton; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13312 yuan / ton, up about 100 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the current natural rubber supply is about to be in the lowest valley of the year, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, but China has not yet cut it; On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises gradually picked up after the year. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time is ahead of schedule this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber continues to recover. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continues to increase. Statistics show that it has reached 350000 tons so far, of which the increase of dark rubber ring is significant; According to market news, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber and the cumulative inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao narrowed in the previous period. Latest industry news: on February 24, Thailand’s State Council spokesman tanakong revealed that the prime minister and Defense Minister General Bayu was satisfied with the rising trend of rubber prices in 2022, and it is expected that rubber exports could exceed 4.218 million tons worldwide; Tanagung said that general Bayu urged all government units to actively follow up the implementation of the projects formulated by the prime minister and the government, and continue to take care of the people in all walks of life, especially in the aspects of crops and agricultural economy, such as rubber, an important cash crop in Thailand; With the continuous stability of rubber prices, the price difference of rubber farmers subsidized by the government’s “rubber price guarantee plan” has been reduced, and the survey found that the majority of rubber farmers are very satisfied with the plan. Even so, general Bayu still ordered all relevant units to implement various subsidy plans, including the rubber price guarantee plan, in order to solve the problems and impacts affecting the general public.

Future forecast: the demand for natural rubber procurement is picking up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; Although the growth rate of spot inventory has narrowed, the upward momentum of the market will still be suppressed. It is generally expected that under the background that the downstream demand continues to rebound in the low period of annual supply, natural rubber is expected to receive strong support in the medium term and the trend of small fluctuation in the short term is expected to continue.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 23): 4572 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid continued to decline today. The average market price in East China decreased by 2.56% in a single day. The price of acetic acid in domestic areas decreased synchronously, with a decline range of about 200 yuan / ton. The market situation was obviously weak. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid is high, the operation of enterprises is stable, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, mainly digesting the early orders, the atmosphere of new orders in the market is light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is accumulated, the situation of oversupply is difficult to improve in a short time, and the competitive shipping quotation of acetic acid enterprises is reduced.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (February 22): 7250 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price trend of cryolite in Henan is stable, and the average production price in Henan is flat compared with yesterday. Affected by heating, enterprises in the North start work on a low level, the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, the cryolite price is firm and stable, and the downstream demand is stable. Enterprises negotiate shipment. In a short time, the price market also needs to pay attention to the enterprise’s inventory. At present, the venue holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: wait and see the cryolite market and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13837 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam fell on February 21, down 2.55% compared with the previous trading day. At present, there is a large spot supply of caprolactam. In order to digest the inventory, the market focus has shifted downward. The downstream PA6 chip market is not smooth, the price is reduced, and the demand for caprolactam is reduced. The market is dominated by bad conditions, and the overall operation is weak. It is recommended to focus on cost and demand side changes.

Future forecast: caprolactam market trend will run downward in the short term.