According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 1043 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 910 yuan / ton), the price increased by 133 yuan / ton, or 14.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic phosphate ore market as a whole continued to operate at a high level and strong in July. The supply of phosphate rock in the quarry continues to be tight, and the shortage of medium and high-grade phosphate ore is still the same. The circulating supply of phosphate rock in the mine is limited. Many large factories mainly use phosphate rock for their own use, and there is no saleable supply externally. Some mines in Guangxi and Guizhou mainly receive orders in advance, and mining enterprises in Hebei mainly supply shareholders. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer products has performed well, which has also boosted the demand side of the phosphate ore market this year. Therefore, with the support of both supply and demand, the domestic phosphorus ore market has continued to operate at a high level for nearly July. As of July 5, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 930-980 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the overall market price of yellow phosphorus fell in June. In July, the decline in the yellow phosphorus market continued. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37000 yuan on July 4, a decrease of 1.6% compared with July 1 (37600 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

With the continuous strengthening of environmental protection policies in recent years, the mining requirements of phosphate rock have also been raised, and the mining difficulty has expanded. In addition, phosphate rock itself is a non renewable resource, and domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock is relatively small. Therefore, in the short term, the relief of the tight market supply situation is limited. Phosphate rock datagraphers of business society believe that recently, the domestic phosphate rock market is mainly stable and high-level operation, Specific trends also need to pay more attention to specific changes in supply and demand.

1、 Summary of mixed xylene prices on July 1:

Qingdao refinery quoted 8300 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery quoted 8150 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8350 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8600 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 8600 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8500 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, many oil fields in Libya suffered from force majeure, and the oil supply fell sharply, adding to market concerns about the insufficient production capacity of opec+, and the international oil price rose last Friday.

Crude oil rose last Friday, with good support on the cost side. The domestic demand side is weak, and mixed xylene is weak and volatile.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 1, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol is 5333 yuan / ton, which is 133 yuan / ton higher than that on June 26, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol is 5200 yuan / ton), or 2.56%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business agency that this week, the domestic diethylene glycol market as a whole showed an upward trend. This week, the delivery of diethylene glycol at the port was normal, and the on-site stock taking performance was good. Supported by the supply side, the market price of diethylene glycol on Tuesday was steadily rising. As of the end of this week (July 1), the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was around 5300-5470 yuan / ton, with a reference increase of 2.5% in the week. At present, the unstable trend of international crude oil has brought some worries to the market. Diethylene glycol operators are cautious, and there is a heavy wait-and-see mood on the floor. Spot transactions are mainly negotiated, and the overall follow-up performance of the downstream is general.

At present, the inventory of diethylene glycol in the two reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang is about 56200 tons, the support of the supply side is acceptable, and the downstream demand is cautious. Under the game between the supply and demand sides, the diethylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol Market will be mainly sorted out and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the international crude oil trend and inventory changes.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9975 yuan / ton on June 30.

On the cost side, the auction price of raw coal tar is generally rising, which further puts pressure on the cost of carbon black manufacturers. At present, the coke enterprises are operating stably, and the supply of coal tar in the market has not changed significantly, but the performance of downstream products continues to be poor.

On the demand side, the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market operate at low load, the finished products of tire enterprises in the main market are shipped slowly, and the downstream performance of the tire market continues to be depressed. Under the condition that the domestic demand for tires continues to be weak and the export orders drive is limited, the inventory of tire enterprises is high. In the case of high tire inventory and poor expectation of future market demand, some tire manufacturers continue to control production and reduce inventory, and the demand for carbon black in the tire market is still low.

On the whole, at present, the cost of carbon black in China is falling, the demand for carbon black market is depressed due to bad factors, and the inventory is increased. The carbon black price shows a downward trend.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic spandex market maintained a downward trend in June. As of June 29, the average market price of 40d specification was 42200 yuan / ton, down 10.97% from the beginning of the month and 43.73% year-on-year. The spandex industry started 70.8% of the construction, and the spot supply is still sufficient. Most manufacturers let profits go to the warehouse.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D., 30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 48000-58000., 43000-47000., 39000-44000

Shandong, 48000-58000., 43000-47000., 39000-44000

Fujian, 48000-58000., 43000-47000., 39000-44000

Jiangsu, 48000-58000., 43000-47000., 39000-44000

In June, the domestic pure MDI market hit the bottom and rebounded, the manufacturer’s prices rose, and the traders were reluctant to sell and bullish. As of the end of the month, the market reference was 22500-23000 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer barreled self withdrawal. It is difficult for PTMEG to keep its price, the downstream procurement is negative, and the BDO decline in cost is clear. Although there is factory maintenance, the overall supply is sufficient, and the market lacks positive support. As of the end of the month, the market negotiation evaluation of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) was 35000-37000 yuan / ton.

Downstream end textile enterprises are cautious about the market and mainly purchase on demand. With the rise of temperature, the textile market has slowly entered the off-season, mainly in small batches, proofing and price seeking, and the issuance of new orders is limited. A small number of foreign trade orders in autumn and winter just need to be released, and the market order receiving atmosphere is also poor. At present, 30-40% of the construction in the circular knitting industry and around 60% of the construction in the warp knitting industry are expected to decline further.

Business analysts believe that the inventory of spandex manufacturers is high, and the start-up of devices may decline, and the production capacity will weaken. The supporting role of the cost side can be maintained. However, with the deepening of the off-season, the difficulty of issuing new orders will continue to increase, and the light demand will still drag down the spandex market.