On March 11th, the domestic ethylene glycol market experienced ups and downs, with the mainstream spot market in East China closing at 4350 yuan/ton and -20 yuan/ton; The South China market is concerned about the impact of geopolitical issues on supply, and holders are still reluctant to sell. The spot market has sporadic quotations, and the mentality is slightly cautious, closing at 4900 yuan/ton,+450 yuan/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of March 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 56000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons compared to the previous statistical period. This week (March 10-16), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol is expected to arrive at a ship of 10500 tons, with an increase in expected port volume. Downstream work and production are gradually resuming, and port shipments may increase. The inventory changes at the main ports in East China are not significant.
Demand: Downstream is gradually recovering, and the unsaturated resin plant is continuing to resume and restart within the week, with demand gradually increasing. According to statistics, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China this week is 35%, an increase of 20% compared to the previous period. On March 10th, a total of 1522 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 138 tons from the previous day.
Cost: The market believes that the Iran Israel conflict is expected to end faster than expected, and coupled with the possibility of the G7 group releasing strategic reserves, international oil prices have fallen. The oil price has experienced two significant fluctuations this week. On Monday, benchmark oil prices soared to a nearly four-year high; On Tuesday, US President Trump’s Middle East conflict may soon come to an end, causing oil prices to plummet by 11%; On Tuesday evening, the US Secretary of Energy tweeted that the US Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plummet by 20% at one point. If G7 leaders announce substantive measures after the meeting, tonight will become the trigger point for the third consecutive trading day of significant fluctuations in oil prices.
Market expectation: The traditional peak season is approaching, downstream is gradually restarting, demand side support is strong, but the situation in the Middle East is easing, oil prices are under pressure and falling, downstream resistance is strong, and the enthusiasm for actual purchases is poor. The short-term ethylene glycol market is facing pressure.
| http://www.sulfamic-acid.com |