Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

 

According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average early price of silver market was 4762.33 yuan / kg, down 0.29%, which was 0.64% lower than the average early price of spot market price of 4793 yuan / kg before the festival (January 31).

 

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On February 11, the spot market price of gold was 374.21 yuan / g, down 0.48%, up 0.31% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

 

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same. Gold prices have been relatively strong recently.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

News of interest rate hike policy

 

According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year increase of U.S. CPI in January expanded to 7.5%, higher than the market expectation, and the core CPI increased by 6% year-on-year, both the largest increase since 1982.

 

After the data came out, the yield of 10-year US bonds broke the 2% mark for the first time in two and a half years. The market predicts that the Fed is more than 50% likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, and will raise interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of July. According to the data released at the same time, the adjusted average hourly salary in January decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, the 10th consecutive month.

 

In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 223000, a decrease of 16000 compared with the previous week, the third consecutive week of decline. As of the week of January 29, the number of people who renewed their claims for unemployment benefits was flat at 1.62 million.

 

US data strengthened market expectations for the fed to start raising interest rates. Federal Reserve Balkin: conceptually, he is open to raising interest rates by 50 basis points

 

Bank of Thailand: Thailand’s monetary policy does not follow other countries. The spillover effect of the Fed’s interest rate hike is limited.

 

Domestic monetary policy news

 

According to the central bank data released yesterday, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, estimated at 9.2% and 9% respectively. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing factor ① of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net cash invested in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.

 

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China’s social financing scale increased by 6170 billion yuan in January, with an estimated 5385 billion yuan, compared with 2368.2 billion yuan. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale in China was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.

 

In January, China increased RMB loans by 3980 billion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; It is expected to be 3700 billion yuan, compared with 1131.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.

 

Future forecast

 

The expectation of raising interest rates in the near future still exists, suppressing interest free assets and putting pressure on the price of precious metal silver. However, geopolitical news triggered a certain rise in risk aversion. It is expected that the price of precious metals will still be in the stage of upward weakness and weak consolidation in the short term.

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Domestic cobalt price rose on February 10

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on February 10, and the cobalt market rose slowly after the festival. On February 10, the cobalt price was 509500 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton or 0.59% compared with the cobalt price of 506500 yuan / ton on February 9 of the previous trading day; After the festival, the cobalt market recovered and the cobalt price rose slowly.

 

Key points of analysis

 

The international cobalt price rises slowly, and the price difference at home and abroad is large; The national subsidy for new energy has declined by 30%, the consumption of new energy vehicles may decline, the demand growth of cobalt market slows down, the mobile phone market recovers after the festival, and the strong demand of cobalt market still exists.

 

Future forecast

 

Demand remains strong and cobalt prices are expected to rise slowly.

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Price list of magnesium ingots on September 9

 

Market analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 44000 yuan / ton on the 9th, up 2.33% from a year ago. Recently, the quotation is mainly stable.

 

After the opening of the market after the festival, the market price of magnesium ingots remained stable, but the terminals are still on holiday, and the overall market demand has not been released, which needs to be further followed up by the market. Most magnesium factories are still completing the orders before the festival, and the quotation is more firm and close to 42000-44000 yuan / ton. Considering the lack of rising power in the early stage of resumption of work and the fact that the previous environmental protection policies have not yet issued detailed rules, Insiders believe that the recent market is dominated by steady-state operation.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

 

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 8th, with the spot price of 70765 yuan / ton, down 0.52% from the previous day and up 1.19% from the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of this year, copper prices have mainly fluctuated in a narrow range.

 

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Previously, the downward adjustment of the US dollar index weakened the pressure on the metal and stabilized recently. There is no obvious driving force on the fundamentals, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the price fluctuates in the range. At present, the macro situation has improved and the domestic interest rate has been reduced. In the past half month, LME copper inventory has continued to decline, falling to around 80000 tons, and the US dollar is still weak. It is expected that the copper price will maintain the range fluctuation.

Product Name: phosphate rock

 

Latest price (February 7): 700 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, on February 7, the domestic phosphorus ore market was temporarily and stably sorted and operated. The average market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was 700 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 7th, after the Spring Festival, mining enterprises in some parts of China resumed construction one after another, and the market on the site was temporarily stable and changed significantly. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou is around 660-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-630 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guangxi is around 630-680 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 570-630 yuan / ton.

 

Future forecast: at present, the market fluctuation of domestic phosphorus ore mines is limited. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

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