Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (January 20): 13510 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of January 20, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13510 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.37% over the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable, the ex factory price of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13400 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased; The downstream pre holiday goods preparation continued, coupled with the rebound in the price of raw butadiene, and the cost increased. The offer of merchants increased slightly, and the Qilu, Dushanzi and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China reported 12900 ~ 13750 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of raw butadiene rebounds, and the downstream pre holiday stock is not finished. It is expected that the CIS polybutadiene rubber market will be slightly consolidated before the holiday.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (January 19): 18000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable on January 19, unchanged from the previous day. Recently, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, the high level of chloroform remains stable, and the cost support is OK. However, R22 domestic and foreign demand is weak, the export is not smooth, the domestic demand is poor, and the shipping atmosphere of refrigerant enterprises is general. Most of them are adjusted according to the shipping, and the price rises and falls. Up to now, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 11760 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 4700 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R22 remains at 16000-17000 yuan / ton, which makes profits.

R22 market is expected to run stably for the time being.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (January 18): 2130.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today increased by 1.59% compared with yesterday, and the domestic sulfur market was sorted upward. Refineries in various regions adjusted their quotation according to their shipment and inventory, with different increases compared with the previous working day. The price of solid sulfur in Shandong increased by 30-50 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur increased by 80 yuan / ton; In East China, the fixed sulfur is increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the liquid sulfur is increased by 50-70 yuan / ton; In North China, sulfur fixation was increased by 30 yuan / ton and liquid sulfur by 20 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure in domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid market is rising, the demand for sulfur is increasing, the liquid sulfur market is improving, and the price increases greatly; The demand for sulfur in downstream phosphate fertilizer is acceptable, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, and the winter fertilizer storage market is progressing steadily, promoting the rise of sulfur fixation price.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market is strong, and the downstream follow-up shall be paid attention to.

According to the data of business agency, as of January 16, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5270.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.57% from 5240.00 yuan / ton on January 1.

On January 16, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.17% from the highest point 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 131.62% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 16, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5200 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 5300 yuan / ton; The quotation of low sulfur for 180 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 5350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of low sulfur for 120 CST fuel oil is 5450 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices have risen. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the trend of oil prices has risen; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of January 12, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.285 million barrels to a seven week high of 22.34 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 590000 barrels, reaching a three-and-a-half month high of 13.652 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 976000 barrels to an 8-year low of 7.17 million barrels.

Future forecast: the rising price of raw materials in the ship fuel market supports the ship fuel market, but the terminal procurement is light, the transaction just needs to be purchased, and it is mainly wait-and-see. Today, the price of fuel oil 180CST rose and fell. The low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST was about 5200-5350 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst was about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 34333.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 31500 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 8.25% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices continued to fall this week. Downstream purchase prices are depressed, and some manufacturers do not make external quotations temporarily, so the trading atmosphere in the venue is relatively stalemate. The overall market is dominated by stable consolidation and operation, with strong wait-and-see mood. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 30500-32000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 32000 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic phosphate rock market was consolidated and operated at a high level. Near the Spring Festival, there was little change in the on-site supply, and the commencement remained low. The phosphate rock was mainly used for its own use or contract users. As of January 14, the domestic phosphate rock Market in Guizhou has operated stably. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 630-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade phosphate rock platform is around 290-310 yuan / ton. In Hubei, China, phosphate rock mines are arranged and operated, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate rock ship board is 680 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphate ore market operates steadily, and the factory price of 30% phosphate ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2994 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 2938 yuan / ton on January 14. This week, a total of 200 yuan / ton was raised in the coke market. Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu started the fourth round of 200 yuan / ton from 0:00 on January 14. Shanxi and Hebei also started the fourth round of increase on Friday. At present, the scope of increase is gradually expanding. Affected by the tight purchase of coking coal and the environmental protection inspection carried out in some areas, the coke supply has been slightly tight recently, the overall commencement is still low, and the inventory in the plant is generally low. In terms of downstream steel mills, the recent resumption of production is good. Affected by road transportation, the recent arrival situation is slightly tense. The steel mills have high purchase intention, and most of them actively replenish the warehouse. Under the environment of tight supply and good demand, the coke market as a whole is expected to remain stable, medium and strong.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is temporarily stable, some enterprises still have downward performance, and the market focus moves downward. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, and the lowest price is about 30000 yuan. The cost support is declining. Moreover, near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is gradually reduced. In addition, public health events affect the commencement of construction in some areas, the cost demand is weak, and the market price of phosphoric acid is falling in the range of 9500-12500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business agency believe that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to fall this week. At present, the manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price, and the low-end price will not receive the goods temporarily. The overall market is relatively deadlocked. It is expected that the price stability will be maintained in the short term.