Cobalt price fell sharply in May

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the cobalt market fell sharply in May, and the cobalt price fell sharply. As of May 31, the average price of cobalt was 449400 yuan / ton, down 16.78% from 540000 yuan / ton on May 1. The demand of cobalt market fell significantly, and the cobalt price fell sharply in May.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell month on month

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, new energy vehicles are one of the few bright colors in the automobile industry in April. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 312000 and 299000 respectively, down 33.0% and 38.3% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and 44.6%. Although the production and sales continued to maintain rapid growth year-on-year, they decreased month on month, and the year-on-year growth slowed down. The demand of the cobalt market fell, and the pressure on the cobalt market increased.

Decline in ternary battery output

In April, China’s ternary battery output was 12.6gwh, a month on month decrease of 27% and a year-on-year increase of 55%; In April, China recovered 19421 tons of used lithium batteries, a month on month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 31%. In May, the market demand for cobalt salt, ternary and lithium cobaltate was low, mainly for purchasing, and the inventory of downstream enterprises was low, so the demand for cobalt was low. The output of ternary batteries decreased, the recycling of waste batteries increased, the demand of cobalt market declined, and the supply rose. The overall momentum of cobalt market rose weaker, and the downward pressure increased.

Mobile phone sales fell sharply

According to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, from January to April, the output of mobile phones among the main products was 480million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; The output of microcomputer equipment was 140million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. According to customs statistics, from January to April, China exported 59.97 million laptops, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%; 270Million mobile phones were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The output and export of electronic products both fell sharply, the demand of cobalt market fell, and the pressure of cobalt price decline increased.

Decline in international cobalt price

It can be seen from the trend chart of LME cobalt price that the LME cobalt price fell sharply in May, the international cobalt price fell, the cobalt market fell, dragging down the domestic cobalt market, increasing the negative impact on the domestic cobalt market, and increasing the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt price.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones have both declined, the demand for cobalt has declined significantly, the cobalt market has declined across the board, the price of cobalt salt has fallen sharply, and the international price of cobalt has fallen sharply; On the supply side, the battery recycling market is advancing slowly, and the supply of cobalt market has increased. Generally speaking, under the background of obvious decline in cobalt market demand and relatively stable supply, the downward pressure on cobalt price has increased and the upward momentum is insufficient. With the steady progress of resumption of work and production, the future cobalt market demand is expected to grow slowly, but the short-term recovery speed of cobalt market demand may be difficult to meet expectations, and the downward pressure on cobalt price still exists. In the long run, new energy vehicles have become the largest end consumer of cobalt. With the growth of new energy vehicle sales, The steady growth of cobalt market demand is inevitable. Cobalt prices are still supported by high prices. There is limited room for future cobalt prices to fall. Future cobalt prices may stop falling and recover.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 30):17333.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on May 30, the price of refrigerant R22 was 17333.33 yuan / ton, down 0.95 compared with the previous day, up 3.17% year on year. The price of raw material chloroform fell, the cost support became weaker, and the market supply increased. At the same time, the demand did not increase. Under various negative conditions, R22 prices fell steadily. At present, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11730 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 3575 yuan / ton, and the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 16000-18000 yuan / ton.

The R22 market is expected to be stable and weak.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5280 yuan / ton on May 27. Compared with the price of 5080 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it was increased by 200 yuan / ton during the week, an increase of 3.94%, and an increase of 23.94% month on month. As of May 27, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

Region, May 23, May 27, Price fluctuation

South China, 4650 yuan / ton, 4850 yuan / ton, + two hundred

North China, 4900 yuan / ton, 5200 yuan / ton, + three hundred

Shandong region, 4900 yuan / ton, 5200 yuan / ton, + three hundred

Jiangsu region, 4800 yuan / ton, 5100 yuan / ton, + three hundred

Zhejiang region, 4900 yuan / ton, 5200 yuan / ton, + three hundred

During the week, the acetic acid market generally rose, and the price trend continued to rise. There are a lot of maintenance of acetic acid devices in the yard. According to the market news at the beginning of the week, Shandong Yankuang’s 1million / ton acetic acid device was shut down for maintenance on May 25, the market supply was reduced, the mentality of the operators was strong, the quotation was increased, and other regions followed the increase. The price was increased by 200-300 yuan / ton during the week. The downstream demand was ok, and the enterprise mainly purchased on demand. The enterprise inventory was not under pressure, and the shipment was smooth. The quotation of the goods holder was increased according to the shipment situation.

The upstream methanol is in weak operation. In terms of spot goods, the market is generally buying gas, the demand is mainly long, the overall shipment is OK, the market is rising weakly, and the operation is fluctuating in a narrow range. As of May 27, the average price of methanol production enterprises is about 2620 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% in the week.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate was consolidated and operated. In terms of enterprise commencement, most of the units of East and South China Manufacturers operated normally, with sufficient market supply. In terms of demand, the downstream plants had weak purchase intention, mostly traded at the low-end price of small orders, with average overall profit. There was support from the market of acetic acid, and the trend of ethyl acetate was mainly on the sidelines.

According to the acetic acid analysts of the business society, most of the devices in the acetic acid market are overhauled, there is less spot supply, the suppliers are supported by good news, the acetic acid price is mainly high, the downstream demand is stable, the purchasing just needs to be followed up, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, and the shipment is smooth. In addition, some of the devices in the later period may be overhauled. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be sorted up, and the specific attention will be paid to the devices of.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 26): 8510 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on May 26, the average price of pvc5 in the domestic market was 8510 yuan / ton, down 0.37% from the previous trading day and 7.5% year-on-year. At present, the futures price continues to fall, the spot market price has decreased significantly, and the mainstream market price has dropped by about 50-150 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand continues to maintain rigid demand, the wait-and-see attitude is obvious, the inquiry heat is weakened, PVC enterprises continue to sell goods at a profit, the transaction atmosphere is not high, and the atmosphere in the venue is empty. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4300-4500 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8100-8500 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to weaken.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 25th, the average nickel market price was 214033.33 yuan / ton, down 2.33% from the previous trading day and up 68.4% year-on-year.

US economic recession concerns dragged down the stock market, led by nonferrous metals, which fell 4.66% overnight. Indonesia’s massive release of ferronickel and incremental imports eased supply concerns and weakened nickel fundamentals. Previously, the main reason for supporting nickel prices was the shortage of domestic pure nickel inventory. However, with the opening of the import window, pure nickel imports, including most deliverable nickel plates, arrived within the week, alleviating the supply concerns caused by low inventory in the early stage. In addition, downstream consumption is still affected by the epidemic, and the nickel price began to weaken. The tight supply of domestic pure nickel is alleviated, superimposed with light downstream demand, and the short-term shock of nickel is expected to be weak.