Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (December 6): 3190.00 yuan / ton

On December 6, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on December 3. The market price of 60% white potassium made in China is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is tight. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium will not be quoted temporarily. The market of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has increased slightly recently, and the enthusiasm for next procurement has been enhanced.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 3200 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 23, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, and the white carbon black price was stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

This week (10.30-11.3), the mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6870 yuan / ton. The price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, there is no significant change in the price. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. It is mainly for contract customers. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid market fell, the upstream cost support weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises increased, the supply decreased, the downstream demand weakened, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the overall market was weak.

On December 3, the chemical index was 1117 points, down 8 points from yesterday, down 20.21% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 86.79% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly run smoothly with limited fluctuation range. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in early December, and the spot price rose. As of December 2, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20166.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.51% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the recent methanol market is at a low level. With the decline of coal price, the support of methanol cost is weakened, and some methanol units are restored, the supply side is abundant. The price focus of the domestic methanol market continued to fall, unable to support the formaldehyde market, and formaldehyde fell. At present, the downstream is generally affected by environmental protection control, and the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is expected to decline slightly.

Upstream formaldehyde continued to fall, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, the recent domestic operating rate is affected by Yuntianhua maintenance, and the market supply is expected to be reduced. Moreover, the enterprise inventory is still low, the on-site supply remains tight, and the supply side is good for the spot price. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 19600 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 20000 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20900 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. I’ve heard that there is resistance to traders’ shipment and there is a certain order transfer operation.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to decline, and the cost support of POM was weak. The on-site supply is expected to shrink again, but the spot price affects the procurement operation of downstream enterprises. At present, the trading tends to take small orders. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain production, the market atmosphere is relatively light, and there is a certain pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the rise of POM market may be hindered in the short term.

This month, the domestic market price of butyl acetate continued to decline, mainly affected by the weak cost and weak demand caused by the decline of upstream acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate fell by 14.7% in the month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 10400-10600 yuan / ton. At present, butyl acetate has entered the process of continuous bottom exploration.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the acetic acid price continued to rise in the first half of the month, mainly due to the tightening of supply, the extension and load reduction in Shaanxi, the shutdown and maintenance of Jiangsu Thorpe, the gradual easing of the industry inventory pressure, and the upward shift of the focus of acetic acid trading. The price of acetic acid began to decline in the middle and late part of the year. Although the Jiangsu Thorpe plant was shut down, there was a large amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage, the market entered the de inventory cycle, and some downstream entered the off-season in winter. The purchase of raw materials was mainly rational, and most of the contracts and Inventory were digested.

In addition, in terms of upstream n-butanol, according to the monitoring of business society, n-butanol also fluctuated lower in November, with a decrease of 11.0%. The transaction performance of n-butanol market in Shandong is relatively light, the downstream plants are generally started, and the demand is mainly to maintain the rigid demand. The cost decline caused by the decline of acetic acid and n-butanol continued to be bad for butyl acetate.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers is high this month, and the market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of major manufacturers fell again and again, with a cumulative decline of more than 1000 yuan in the whole month. The manufacturer’s shipment speed is weak, and the price support psychology is weakened, which has a significant impact on the market. In addition, traders are not active in taking goods, and downstream factories on the demand side are only limited to just need to buy. Market trading is not active, demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market has not substantially improved.

Future forecast: in the short term, the cost side may still be not good, and the supply side is also relatively sufficient. Although the load of enterprises is reduced in the latter ten days, the social inventory is still high due to weak demand, and it is still in the stock removal stage in the later stage. It is expected that the recent ethyl acetate Market is still weak.

Data monitoring shows that China’s natural rubber market continued to fluctuate in the second half of November (16-30), and the increase range has expanded near the weekend. The price of China’s domestic standard 1 spot rubber was quoted at 14240 yuan / ton in East China market on the 16th and 13890 yuan / ton on the 30th, down 2.46%; The highest price this week is 14360 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 13890 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the maximum amplitude is the decline of 3.27% in that week.

The factors affecting the market in the second half of the month are:

1. Macro: since November, crude oil prices have fallen sharply. WTI crude oil fell by 18.45% and Brent crude oil fell by 14.49%; The crude oil analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the impact of the new virus will continue to ferment, the epidemic in Europe will become more and more intense, and the oil price will be in a short atmosphere. However, the oversold on Friday also basically digested the bad expectations, and it is unlikely that the oil price will continue to fall sharply. At present, the market focus is mainly on the OPEC + meeting to be held next week. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the possibility of continued bottoming cannot be ruled out.

2. Supply side: production area: Southeast Asia is affected by bad weather and frequent rainfall, which affects the local rubber cutting and raw rubber supply. For example, Thai media reported on November 26 that Thailand continues to issue flood warning in the South; As the northeast monsoon is strong and water vapor continues to be brought from the Gulf of Thailand, there is a fear of heavy rainfall in southern Thailand until 30 days ago. Eight governments such as Chunpeng must pay attention to the flood caused by accumulated precipitation; Secondly, a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in Thailand. According to Thai media reports on November 29, jessada, director of Thai Rubber Research Institute, revealed that a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in jianzhuwen and Dalat provinces in eastern Thailand, with a sick rubber forest area of more than 100 Lai. China’s rubber production areas in Yunnan began to stop cutting one after another, and Hainan stopped cutting at the end of the year. Affected by the cold wave weather, the cutting stop date may come ahead of schedule. In general, the significant reduction of domestic and foreign supply has significantly supported the rubber price. Output data: the October report recently released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber output will increase by 1.8% year-on-year to 13.836 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam slightly increased by 0.3% and Malaysia increased by 3%. In October, the global output of natural rubber is expected to drop by 0.6% to 1331000 tons. Among them, Thailand decreased by 2.4%, Indonesia increased by 4.7%, Vietnam decreased by 1.7% and Malaysia increased by 20.1%.

3. Downstream: operating rate data: the data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 66.00%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.35 percentage points over the same period last year and 2.06 percentage points over the same period in 2019. The operating load of semi steel tire was 62.25%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.04 percentage points over the same period last year and 6.56 percentage points over the same period in 2019. Consumption data: according to the October report recently released by ANRPC, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 14.028 million tons in 2021. Among them, China increased by 5.4%, India increased by 14.4%, Thailand decreased by 4.6% and Malaysia decreased by 2.4%. In October, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decline by 3.7% to 1141000 tons. Among them, China decreased by 9.3%, India by 23.1%, Thailand by 9.5% and Malaysia by 7.2%. Tire data: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s rubber tire output in October was 73.071 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 13.8% over the same period of the previous year to 73845.2 million. Auto data: on November 24, according to the data of China passenger Federation, the overall retail sales of narrow passenger car market in the third week of November reached 49000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the performance was relatively improved, a decrease of 6% compared with the third week of October this year. Due to the obvious improvement of production in October, the retail recovery in November should be obvious, but the current recovery speed is still not fast, which is similar to that in 2019, and it is also a good performance.

4. In terms of inventory: the warehouse receipts increased significantly in the previous period. Statistics show that as of November 26, Tianjiao warehouse receipts were 1404700 tons, an increase of 12300 tons on a weekly basis. The total inventory of the exchange was 188350 tons, an increase of 8827 tons on a weekly basis; The No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 41671 tons, an increase of 91 tons. The total inventory of the exchange was 5259200 tons, an increase of 2006 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to go to the warehouse. Due to the poor shipping, most of the orders delayed in the early stage did not arrive at the port as scheduled; As the start-up of the tire factory has picked up, the inventory has increased.

5. Import and export: China: in October, China exported 342300 tons of all steel tires, 10.33% month on month, 0.32% year on year. From January to October, China exported 3.0714 million tons, 12.05% year on year; In October, the half steel tire was 182400 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 5.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1905500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of 19.45%. Thailand: in the first 10 months of 2021, Thailand exported 2.778 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year increase of 30%, and 3.762 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The total export to China was 1.975 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

6. Policy: India: according to foreign media reports on November 26, once the price difference of fresh latex is 2 rupees per kilogram higher than that of rss4, the rubber board of India will provide subsidies to rubber farmers according to the price difference. The Bureau has taken measures to strengthen film production to fill the shortage in the domestic market. Thailand: according to the news from Thailand on November 24, Zhu Lin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce of Thailand, stressed that we should continue to promote the third year income security plan to help farmers, fight back against the claim that the prices of all crops have fallen, and pointed out that the price of cup glue (DRC 50%) is higher than the guaranteed price.

7. Tire price increase: under the comprehensive influence of environmental protection, power restriction, rising raw material prices and other factors, tire manufacturers at home and abroad have issued tire price increase notices, such as Zhongce Rubber, Linglong tire, Zhengxin tire, Fengshen tire, Qingdao Shuangxing, Qingdao Jianxin united, Zhongda & Haoyu rubber, Hubei outlets, Pu linchengshan, GM, etc.

Future forecast: natural disasters have occurred frequently in Southeast Asia recently, and it is reported that La Nina will reach the peak from the end of next month to January 2022. Another report said that a new type of Defoliation Disease broke out in the rubber forests of Tsim Chuk Mun and Dalat Prefecture in Thailand, affecting the rubber cutting rate in many ways; At the same time, China’s domestic rubber began to stop cutting, and the natural rubber supply side played a supporting role in the market; The latest data show that the demand of downstream tire manufacturers has rebounded slightly; Rubber producing countries such as India provide subsidies to rubber farmers; Several tire manufacturers issued price increase notices; In addition, the epidemic, especially Omicron, has a great impact on the world. The terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. To sum up, various factors not only support the rubber trend, but also the overall impact of macro factors this month and the sharp weakening of crude oil and coal on bulk commodities. It is expected that natural rubber will maintain the range shock trend, and the continuous weakening risk caused by recent external system risks will not be ruled out in the short term.