1、 Price trend
According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36750 yuan / ton last Friday and 36500 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 0.68% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is down, the overall market trading situation is general, and the logistics in some regions is blocked. Downstream enquiries increased, but the goods were taken more cautiously, the price was pressed more, and the enterprise quotation decreased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 35000-37000 yuan / ton; The quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton; The quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36500 yuan / ton.
In terms of phosphate rock, as of April 7, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 763 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on April 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 740 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 23 yuan / ton, or 3.15%. April is the peak season for spring ploughing and sowing. The demand for phosphate fertilizer at the downstream of phosphate rock terminal increases to support the market. In addition, the short-term supply in the phosphate ore field is tight, and now the improvement is limited. Therefore, the phosphate ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation.
In terms of coke, from April 1 to April 8, 2022, the price of coke market in Shanxi was 3394 yuan / ton last weekend and 3394 yuan / ton this weekend, flat. The coke market price is temporarily stable, and the overall market is strong. The main production areas such as Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong have increased. This round of increase of 200 yuan / ton has not been implemented yet. In terms of supply: Recently, the profits of coking enterprises are OK, the enterprises start actively, supported by the rising price of upstream coking coal. At present, coking enterprises have a positive attitude of raising prices. Affected by the control measures in Shanxi, the automobile transportation is difficult, and the coke inventory in the plant has increased to a certain extent. In terms of demand, the recent commencement of steel mills has been improved to a certain extent, and they are active in replenishing coke storage. Downstream demand: the passive production restriction of steel mills has been basically lifted, the resumption of production is positive, the demand for coke has been further increased, and the demand for coke is expected to be good. It is expected that the coke market will run stronger as a whole, and the follow-up will focus on transportation and coke inventory in all links.
In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is stable this week. The phosphoric acid market started smoothly, the prices of most enterprises continued to remain stable, the downstream purchasing attitude was cautious and wait-and-see, and the transactions were generally concluded after the price of phosphoric acid increased.
3、 Future forecast
The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has been lowered this week, there are more downstream price reductions, orders are received cautiously, and the overall market demand is general. The upstream phosphate rock rose slightly, the rise of coke market has not yet landed, and the cost support is acceptable. It is expected that the price trend of yellow phosphorus will be deadlocked in the short term.
