Crude oil fell “cliff style”, a new variant virus in South Africa triggered a huge wave in the market, and US oil plunged 13%, the largest decline since April last year. As of the close of last Friday (November 26), the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $10.24, or 13.1%, to $68.15/barrel. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil (ice) futures fell $9.5, or 11.6%, to $72.72/barrel.

Under the heavy fall of crude oil, today (November 29) all products of PTA industrial chain fell, with PTA main futures down 4.89%, ethylene glycol main futures down 4.37%, staple fiber main futures down 5.72%, and the spot market also showed fatigue.

The domestic PTA spot market fell sharply, and the average market price was 4619 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from the previous day and up 38.14% year-on-year. Honggang petrochemical and Yadong petrochemical units are about to be overhauled, and the start-up of domestic PTA units will decline, but it will remain at the high level of 81.71%. In addition, the downstream polyester plant reduced production, the demand side was expected to decline, and the supply showed a slight accumulation of stocks. The short-term cost support collapsed, superimposed with the expectation of production reduction in many mainstream polyester factories, and there is still pressure on PTA supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will remain mainly downward.

The decline of ethylene glycol market is still the main theme, which is closely related to the sharp decline of coal price. Under the manipulation of early funds, the chemical industry as a whole is divorced from the fundamentals, and excessive fanatical speculation leads to policy intervention. The market gradually returns to rationality. Ethylene prices also weakened slightly and the cost side was under pressure. The performance of terminal demand orders is poor, PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle, and the production reduction plan of polyester plant is implemented. However, at the same time, some units are overhauled, and the demand side is intertwined with long space. However, at present, all ethylene glycol processes have lost production. If the price continues to decline, it may frustrate the enterprise’s production enthusiasm, so the downward space is limited.

Last week, the price of polyester staple fiber rose briefly due to the rise of cost in the short term, but it was only a flash in the pan due to various factors. At present, the price of 1.4d * 38mm is 7243 yuan / ton, down 11.02% from the beginning of November and up 26.23% year-on-year. The downstream pure polyester yarn market is weak, the consumer terminal has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the transaction is cold, the local power restriction policy has basically ended, and the downstream textile manufacturers are mainly just in need of procurement, lacking large order support. In November and December, most yarn factories need to pay production costs, and the capital flow is generally tight. They have reduced the procurement of polyester staple fiber and other raw materials. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will still show a weak shock situation without substantial improvement in supply and demand.

Polyester filament market is promoted by mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Today, individual specifications are reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton. The quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7200-7650 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 8900-9300 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7400-7850 yuan / ton. The performance of orders in the terminal market is still weak, customers’ intention to take goods is not high, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light. From the end of this month, some weaving factories plan to continue to shut down and reduce the burden. The pressure on the cost side increases, the mentality of the terminal weaving factory tends to be cautious, and the bad conditions in the upstream and downstream are superimposed. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain weak in the short term.

In November, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated at a low level and fluctuated slightly. It rebounded slowly after a sharp decline at the beginning of the month, but it still showed a downward trend compared with the beginning of the month. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE at the beginning of the month was 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of MTBE at the end of the month was 6410 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.38% and a year-on-year increase of 68.68%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 10 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

Monthly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price:

At the beginning of the month, the MTBE market continued to decline, and some manufacturers lowered their factory quotations for many times during the week, with a decline of about 400-750 yuan / ton. Brent crude oil price fell to a low of US $81.99/barrel, which gave some negative impact on commodities. Due to the epidemic, travel restrictions in some areas, gasoline sales weakened, and gasoline prices also fell step by step due to the decline of crude oil. Recently, due to poor sales, various inventories have increased to varying degrees. Considering the inventory, businesses have offered profits for promotion.

In the middle of the month, the MTBE market rose first and then fluctuated and sorted out. At the beginning of the week, some production enterprises raised the ex factory quotation, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. After the price of MTBE fell to a low level last week, it attracted some downstream businesses to replenish goods on bargain hunting, and the shipment of businesses improved. With the support of the rise of crude oil and raw materials over the weekend, the MTBE market in Shandong led the market again. In the middle and later part of the week, the downstream demand was limited, the sales pressure of merchants remained, and the price rise of MTBE market was weak, resulting in shock consolidation.

In late June, the MTBE market rose first and then fluctuated and sorted out. At the beginning of the week, some production enterprises raised the ex factory quotation, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. Gasoline prices are rising. Gasoline prices rose by 100-200 yuan / ton this week. Its own sales are getting better, and the demand for raw materials is increasing. The bidding of local refineries is increasing this week, and the demand is increasing. Some devices in Shandong and Northeast China are still under maintenance. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Northeast China recently, the supply of goods to the south is scarce and the supply is limited, supporting businesses to actively explore the rise. Supported by the above positive parties, MTBE prices continued to rise this week.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market was first depressed and then raised, and closed down at the weekend, with an overall slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton compared with last week. After the price rose to a high level last week, there was resistance in the downstream and took a wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials. In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply one after another, and the gasoline and raw material market also fell, resulting in pressure on MTBE businesses, which had no choice but to follow the decline, with a decline of about 100-150 yuan / ton.

Comparison chart of crude oil (upstream raw material) and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of MTBE and gasoline (downstream products) price trend of business agency:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on November 25, the closing price of Asian MTBE market decreased by US $6 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $833-835 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $10 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $863.75-864.25/t. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. MTBE market is closed and has no closing price.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Singapore USD 833-835 / ton – USD 6 / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay Thanksgiving holiday /

Europe FOB ARA USD 863.75-864.25/ton – USD 10 / ton

In terms of enterprises, as of November 26, the 200000 t / a isomerization unit of Shandong Chengtai chemical had been started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton. Shi dashenghua’s MTBE quotation is reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation co production 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / T to 6450 yuan / T. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / T to 6400 yuan / T.

The trend of crude oil is unstable and the market is strong; Downstream on-demand procurement, mainly merchant shipment. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may be mainly sorted out in the short term.

Trade name: titanium concentrate

Latest price: November 25: 2240 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on November 25, the market price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area was basically stable. The titanium ore market is relatively light, and the downstream titanium dioxide enterprise market is relatively cold, mainly purchasing on demand. The market inquiry is general, the manufacturer’s inventory has increased, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall market is weak and stable.

Forecast: the price of titanium concentrate is mainly weak in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (November 24): 7050 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: most domestic acetic acid manufacturers operate normally. Although individual enterprises maintain their devices, due to the manufacturer’s stock in the early stage, the overall supply of goods in the short-term market is sufficient, while the downstream purchase follow-up is mainly rational, the market trading is general, the trade negotiation on shipment, the focus of completion and delivery has shifted slightly downward, and the domestic acetic acid enterprises adjust their quotation according to their own shipment, The market mentality continues to wait and see.

Future forecast: wait and see the finishing and operation of short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (November 23): 2010.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the price trend of sulfur in East China is reduced by a narrow margin today. The average price of solid and liquid sulfur production is 4.44% lower than that of the previous working day. The price of liquid sulfur is reduced by 50 yuan / ton, while the price of solid and liquid sulfur in North China is reduced by 70-140 yuan / ton, and the price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong is reduced by 140 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of refineries in China is low, the downstream demand is general, the winter fertilizer storage has not yet started, there are few new orders for phosphate fertilizer, the terminal consumption does not support sulfur, and the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market is mainly sorted and operated.