1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 16200 yuan / ton on October 25 and 16175 yuan / ton on October 29. Caprolactam prices fell 0.15% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The operating rate of domestic caprolactam enterprises this week was 66%. Caprolactam market moved downward this week due to the decline in raw material prices. As of October 29, Sinopec’s quotation for liquid caprolactam was 16450 yuan / ton. Fujian Tianchen has a production capacity of 350000 tons and a load of about 90%. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 16450 yuan / ton, which will be accepted and withdrawn within six months. Baling Petrochemical’s caprolactam liquid price is 16450 yuan / ton, and the production capacity is 300000 tons. It will be accepted and withdrawn within six months. Shandong Luxi Chemical has no quotation for caprolactam, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. Shandong Haili plant is in shutdown and will not be restarted temporarily.

The price of raw material pure benzene fell this week. On October 25, the reference price of pure benzene was 8320 yuan / ton. On October 29, the reference price of pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton. Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene twice, and the current price is 7600 yuan / ton. The news of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II quota landed. The market expects that the supply of pure benzene of Zhejiang Petrochemical will increase, the market mentality is bad, and the focus of pure benzene will fall sharply. The shipment of Shandong local refining enterprises is general. In order to promote the shipment, the price will be reduced with the market.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the current raw material market is weak and the cost support is weak. Some enterprises plan to restart the caprolactam unit, and the supply will increase. The downstream demand for caprolactam is insufficient, and the operation is low. At present, the market is not good, and the price of caprolactam is expected to continue to fall in the short term.

On October 28, the cryolite commodity index was 85.02, the same as yesterday, down 16.00% from the highest point of 101.21 in the cycle (October 31, 2011), and up 28.14% from the lowest point of 66.35 on September 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

On October 28, the price trend of cryolite market in Henan was stable, and the average price of cryolite market was 7000 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous working day. At present, the upstream raw materials are tight, the price market is strong, and the cost of cryolite is high. On the other hand, due to the impact of limited power production, the production capacity of cryolite enterprises is low. Manufacturers quote high prices according to their own shipments, and the market is strong. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market trend will be stable for the time being.

DOTP prices stabilized after a sharp rise and fall in October

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price soared and plummeted in October, and the overall DOTP market rose and plummeted in October and returned to stability. Affected by downstream centralized procurement and power rationing and production reduction after the festival, DOTP prices soared by 18.08% from October 1 to 12; With the end of centralized procurement and the recovery of plasticizer manufacturers, DOTP prices plummeted. From October 12 to October 19, DOTP prices plummeted by 11.94%; After that, DOTP entered a relatively calm period. From the 20th to the 27th, DOTP prices fell slightly, down only 3.58%. As of October 27, the DOTP price was 12800 yuan / ton, up 1.04% from the DOTP price of 12766.67 yuan / ton on October 1; Overall, the price of DOTP rose slightly in October, and the market of DOTP stabilized in October.

In October, the price of isooctanol soared, plummeted and fluctuated continuously

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in early October, the price of isooctanol soared due to the centralized procurement after the festival and the soaring price of raw material coal to syngas; With the end of centralized procurement, the demand for isooctanol declined, the downstream PVC price of plasticizer plummeted, the purchasing intention of plasticizer manufacturers declined seriously, and the downstream manufacturers of plasticizer no longer paid for the high price, the high price isooctanol lost support, the downward pressure of isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol plummeted; After that, the high price of isooctanol raw material coal syngas stimulated the rise of isooctanol price. However, with the national macro-control, the rising momentum of coal related products was blocked, the rise of isooctanol was frustrated again, and the price of isooctanol fell again. In general, the price of isooctanol remained high in October. However, due to the high cost of isooctanol, there is limited room for the decline of isooctanol in the future.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose in October

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PTA market was adjusted at a high level in October, the PTA price fluctuated slightly in October, the price of raw materials fluctuated and rose, and the cost of DOTP rose, which was good for the DOTP market.

PVC market generally declined in October

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price first rose and then fell in October. After the festival, PVC manufacturers purchased intensively, which stimulated the sharp rise in the price of raw material plasticizer, and the PVC price followed. As of October 12, the PVC price soared by 15.2%; The end of centralized procurement, the impact of restricted films, insufficient downstream demand, and the price of PVC plummeted. As of October 27, the price of PVC plummeted 23.75% compared with October 12. As of October 27, PVC prices fell by 12.02% in October; Overall, the PVC market plummeted in October, the demand for plasticizers declined, the downstream customers of plasticizers were less motivated to purchase, and the downward pressure on DOP prices was great.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOTP data analyst at the business agency, believes that in early October, affected by the centralized procurement after the festival and power rationing and production reduction, the market demand surged in the short term, the short-term supply shortage intensified, and the product price of the plasticizer industry chain soared; After the centralized procurement, the start-up of plasticizer manufacturers picked up, the supply of plasticizer increased, the demand decreased, and the product price of plasticizer industrial chain plummeted. After two weeks of adjustment, after the 20th, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain products are relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer has entered a relatively stable period. The main influencing factors of plasticizer DOP price are raw material cost and downstream purchase intention. On the raw material side, octanol was adjusted at a high level in October, PTA prices rose slightly in October, and DOTP prices rose in October with sufficient support. Overall, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and PTA fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOTP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased; On the demand side, the price of PVC continued to fall sharply, the demand for DOTP decreased, and the support for the rise of DOTP was insufficient. In the future, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened and the downward pressure increased. However, due to the high prices of raw materials isooctanol and PTA and the high cost of DOTP, there is limited room for DOTP to fall. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 26): 50666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on October 26, the price of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable and still held the early quotation. Some enterprises continued to increase. The current market price is 55000 yuan / ton, the price is high, and there is little room for negotiation. At present, the cost side has strong support, the units of refrigerant manufacturers are not saturated, the on-site supply is tightened, and R134a continues to operate at a high level.

R134a market is expected to be strong in the short term.

On October 25, the price of orthobenzene was strong and stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the quotation of o-xylene on the 25th maintained the price on the 22nd, and the strong market of o-xylene still exists. As of October 25, the listed executive price of orthobenzene Sinopec was 6900 yuan / ton, which was more stable than that of orthobenzene last week; In October, the settlement price of orthobenzene increased by 298 yuan / ton, and the orthobenzene market remained strong in October.

Industry chain Market

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose, and the cost of o-xylene rose; The port’s o-benzene slowly goes to the warehouse, the price of imported o-benzene rises, the downstream phthalic anhydride market remains stable at a high level, and the driving force of o-benzene rise is large.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business society, mixed xylene continued to rise on the 25th, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly, the cost of o-xylene increased, and the driving force of o-xylene increased; The high price of phthalic anhydride maintains stability, and the downstream market of o-xylene is good. Overall, the cost of o-xylene rose, and the market of o-xylene remained strong.