According to the monitoring data of business society, the polyacrylamide commodity index on July 22 was 95.58, down 0.43 points from yesterday, down 14.29% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 points (2021-11-03), and up 15.31% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)
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Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of business agency, this week (July 18-23), the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in China decreased slightly, of which the main price was 15728.57 yuan / ton on the 18th (Monday), and 15642.86 yuan / ton on the 23rd (Saturday), with a weekly decrease of 0.54%. This week, the production of the main manufacturer is normal, the market inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is light, and the transaction is general.
Industry chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, this week (July 18-22), the market price of acrylonitrile apron fell to 9820 yuan / ton from 10360 yuan / ton on Monday, with a weekly decline of 5.21%. On the one hand, the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose. On the other hand, downstream construction continues to decline, market transactions are deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at low prices. At present, the fundamentals of oversupply drag the acrylonitrile market, which is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fluctuate and decline in the later period.
Raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business news agency, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China this week (July 18-22) was slightly increased from 10333.33 yuan / ton to 10400 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.65% this week. Propylene, the main raw material, has been quoted at 7250-7350 yuan / ton in the Shandong market by the end of this week. It continues the weak trend of last week, opening low and going low. Although the factory intends to raise the price, the downstream does not buy it, and the price falls down with the trend. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the production of new devices have led to loose propylene supply and intensified market competition. At the same time, the international crude oil is weak and volatile, and the support is slightly weak. Under the influence of multiple bad news, the propylene market is difficult to change.
Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 5802 yuan / ton on July 18 and 6110 yuan / ton on July 22. This week, the bidding price of feed gas was raised, which gave favorable support to liquefied natural gas. The continuous rise of foreign gas has also driven the continuous rise of domestic liquefied natural gas. The willingness to replenish natural gas has increased under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down in the downstream. According to the analysis, the recent LNG market trend is concentrated higher, and the market is running better. In the case of good demand release, low-cost liquid plants may continue to raise prices, and it is expected that the price of liquefied natural gas will continue to dominate in the short term.
Future forecast: this week, the cost of raw materials rose less and fell more, the cost support was not strong, the market spot inventory was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, and the market mentality was empty. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to be stable and weak.
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