Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13837 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam fell on February 21, down 2.55% compared with the previous trading day. At present, there is a large spot supply of caprolactam. In order to digest the inventory, the market focus has shifted downward. The downstream PA6 chip market is not smooth, the price is reduced, and the demand for caprolactam is reduced. The market is dominated by bad conditions, and the overall operation is weak. It is recommended to focus on cost and demand side changes.

Future forecast: caprolactam market trend will run downward in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose this week. As of February 18, the spot nickel price was 179333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from 177733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 28.2% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has risen by 7, fell by 5 and leveled by 1. The recent trend of nickel price is still dominated by strong shock.

Nickel industry chain

In terms of supply and demand: enterprises in Guangxi, Tianjin and Shandong continued to stop production since 2021, and enterprises in Gansu, Jilin and Xinjiang normally produced during the Spring Festival. In January, the overall output of domestic refined nickel is expected to decrease by 13.86% month on month to 12500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.93%. In February, the output of 300 series stainless steel crude steel was 1256600 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. In February, the estimated output of China’s ternary precursor was 64500 tons, an increase of 1.1% month on month and 51% year-on-year.

To sum up: the current shortage of nickel metal, combined with the strong development of terminal new energy vehicles, drives the stable growth of the demand for nickel for batteries. The inventory of the exchange remains low, the inventory of LME nickel continues to decline, and continues to maintain the new low in the past two years. The pattern of tight nickel supply remains, and the fundamental support is strong. The potential adverse factors for the release of thousands of tons of nickel in March are the high price of ice and the potential squeeze of downstream profits. On the whole, before a large amount of high matte nickel is released, the shortage of pure nickel is difficult to alleviate, and the nickel price is expected to remain high.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 17): 5182 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid fell again today, and the average market price in East China decreased by 3.07% compared with the previous working day. The domestic market continued to operate in a weak position. Acetic acid enterprises started stably, the market supply was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. They mainly digested the early orders. The atmosphere for the transaction of new orders in the market was light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises accumulated, and the shipping quotation of goods holders was reduced after competition.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply.

The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China and Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in central and South China is 7900 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream ethylene rose and fluctuated at a high level. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1210 / ton, that in Southeast Asia was US $1190 / ton, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8600 yuan / ton today. However, the recovery of downstream demand was slightly slower than that in previous years, the rise of monomer was blocked and the consolidation was deadlocked. At present, the switch between EO and EG is opened again recently, and the EO supply is expected to be loose.

Forecast: due to the long short game, there are differences in market mentality, so we need to pay attention to the latest factory news guidance.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (February 15): 2203.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today is 1.54% higher than that of yesterday. The domestic sulfur market continues to rise. The price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong is increased by 50 yuan / ton simultaneously, that of Zhenhai Refining and chemical in East China is increased by 30 yuan / ton, and that of other refineries is unchanged. The price of liquid sulfur in North China is increased by 40-50 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur in East China is increased by 100 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure for domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid market is improving, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the port supply flows into the market is less, the port cargo holders have strong intention to support the price, and the liquid sulfur price of regional refineries is rising; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Future forecast: wait and see the future sulfur market, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.