1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 34333.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 31500 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 8.25% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices continued to fall this week. Downstream purchase prices are depressed, and some manufacturers do not make external quotations temporarily, so the trading atmosphere in the venue is relatively stalemate. The overall market is dominated by stable consolidation and operation, with strong wait-and-see mood. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 30500-32000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 32000 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic phosphate rock market was consolidated and operated at a high level. Near the Spring Festival, there was little change in the on-site supply, and the commencement remained low. The phosphate rock was mainly used for its own use or contract users. As of January 14, the domestic phosphate rock Market in Guizhou has operated stably. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 630-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade phosphate rock platform is around 290-310 yuan / ton. In Hubei, China, phosphate rock mines are arranged and operated, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate rock ship board is 680 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphate ore market operates steadily, and the factory price of 30% phosphate ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2994 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 2938 yuan / ton on January 14. This week, a total of 200 yuan / ton was raised in the coke market. Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu started the fourth round of 200 yuan / ton from 0:00 on January 14. Shanxi and Hebei also started the fourth round of increase on Friday. At present, the scope of increase is gradually expanding. Affected by the tight purchase of coking coal and the environmental protection inspection carried out in some areas, the coke supply has been slightly tight recently, the overall commencement is still low, and the inventory in the plant is generally low. In terms of downstream steel mills, the recent resumption of production is good. Affected by road transportation, the recent arrival situation is slightly tense. The steel mills have high purchase intention, and most of them actively replenish the warehouse. Under the environment of tight supply and good demand, the coke market as a whole is expected to remain stable, medium and strong.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is temporarily stable, some enterprises still have downward performance, and the market focus moves downward. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, and the lowest price is about 30000 yuan. The cost support is declining. Moreover, near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is gradually reduced. In addition, public health events affect the commencement of construction in some areas, the cost demand is weak, and the market price of phosphoric acid is falling in the range of 9500-12500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business agency believe that the price of yellow phosphorus continues to fall this week. At present, the manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price, and the low-end price will not receive the goods temporarily. The overall market is relatively deadlocked. It is expected that the price stability will be maintained in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (January 13): 5990 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market trend decreased slightly, and the quotation in East China decreased by 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, with a decrease of 0.33%. The domestic market is weak. At present, the domestic acetic acid enterprises are operating on the high side, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream market is mainly for purchasing, the demand is weak, the enterprises compete for shipping, the focus of negotiation continues to move downward, and the market trend is weak and downward.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (January 121): 17800.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 1.86% compared with yesterday. The domestic TDI market continued to operate strongly, the spot filling in the market was slow, the supply of goods continued to be tight, the traders in the venue were reluctant to sell goods, the offer kept rising, the supply of low-cost goods was difficult to find, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak, the demand was mainly just needed, and the atmosphere in the venue was cautious. The quotation of the distribution market in East China closely follows the rise of the market. The quotation of domestic goods is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton and that of Shanghai goods is about 17500-18500 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term TDI market will continue to be strong, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on January 11 was 5091.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of January 10, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 703000 tons, an increase of 18900 tons, an increase of 2.76%, and an increase of 6000 tons, an increase of 0.86%, compared with last Thursday.

In terms of units, 800000 tons of ethylene glycol will be discharged and put into operation; Yanshan Petrochemical’s current load of 80000 tons of ethylene glycol is maintained at 60%. It is expected to shut down for maintenance on January 18 and continue until mid March.

At present, the profit margin of ethylene glycol continues to narrow, the purchase intention of downstream factories is weak, the new unit is about to be put into operation, the supply and demand side is empty, the MEG outer disk is weak in the afternoon, and the ship cargo negotiation in recent months is estimated to be around 665 US dollars / ton. The price of coal and crude oil fell, and the cost side was weak.

Forecast: weak shock.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (January 10): 3190.00 yuan / ton

On January 10, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on January 7. The market price of 60% white potassium in domestic potassium is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4150 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3900-4000 yuan / ton. The market of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the enthusiasm for purchasing next time has been enhanced.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the ex factory price is about 3200 yuan / ton.