1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose first and then fell in the first ten days of this month, remained stable in the middle of this month, and fluctuated and fell in the second ten days of this month. On August 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan / ton; On August 31, the price was 5730 yuan / ton, down 2.88% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 63.25%.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly due to tight supply, but the downstream continued demand was weak and stable, and the rising power of mixed xylene was insufficient. With the broad decline of crude oil, the weak stability of the market was broken, the bearish psychology increased, and the mixed benzene and toluene followed the decline of crude oil. The rebound of crude oil led to a slight recovery of mixed xylene mentality, but the downstream demand shrank again, and the price fell again at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, the trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose after falling in August. The market is still concerned about the impact of delta mutation virus on demand recovery. Compared with July 30, Brent fell by US $3.34/barrel, or 4.38%; WTI fell $4.45/barrel, or 7.37%.

In terms of external market, as of August 31, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $770.5/t, down US $42 / T or 5.17% from July 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 792 US dollars / ton, down 41 US dollars / ton or 4.92% from July 30.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX market stabilized after rising at the beginning of this month. The price at the end of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the beginning of the month and 58.7% over the same period last year.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China fluctuated downward this month. At the end of the month, the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, down 11.11% from the beginning of the month and up 37.62% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox in East China stabilized after rising at the beginning of the month and rose again at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 6360 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.58% over the beginning of the month and 44.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

On the raw material side, the trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. The spread of delta virus still restricts the recovery of demand, and international oil prices are under short-term pressure. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The short-term weak demand side is difficult to change, and mixed xylene is expected to continue the weak trend. In September, pay attention to whether the downstream demand has improved. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

Commodity index: on August 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.12, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up% from the lowest point. It hit a record low in the cycle, down% from the highest point（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business agency, in August, the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was 14380 yuan / ton for 1 daily report and 14750 yuan / ton for 31 daily report, with a monthly increase of 2.57%.

Upstream raw materials: acrylic acid is an important raw material for the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide, and acrylonitrile is the most important raw material for polyacrylamide.

Acrylic acid:

According to the data monitoring of business society, as shown in the above two figures, the acrylic acid market first rose and then fell in August, and the overall trend rose; As of August 31, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 15266.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.77%, which was larger than that of polyacrylamide.

Acrylonitrile:

Data monitoring shows that in August, the price decreased first and then increased. In the first half of the month, it has been adjusted for many times and increased by 150-200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 14800 yuan / ton; In the second half of the month, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton on the 25th, and the mainstream quotation was about 14900 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 250-300 yuan / ton.

LNG is used in the production process. On August 31, the average price of domestic LNG was 6076.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 930 yuan compared with 5146.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 18.07% in the month and 150.07% compared with the same period last year. The price rise this month is still a commonplace cost rise, the low inventory of liquid plant, the increase of urban fuel replenishment demand and other favorable factors continue to increase, and the price of domestic LNG market continues to rise in the off-season. According to the analysis of the business society, the domestic LNG market fluctuated higher in the off-season in August, and the prices in many places have exceeded the 6000 mark. At present, the favorable factors have not been reduced, and the costs continue to be high. The off-season factors may be difficult to contain the upward trend of liquid prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise, and it is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future..

Downstream demand: in July and August, the water treatment industry experienced too much. The weather and epidemic disasters affected the production, raw material supply and shipment to a certain extent, Limited Logistics and transportation, and it was difficult to find one vehicle. The price of some raw materials was high due to shutdown and tight supply; In the second half of this month, Gongyi region suffered another rainstorm disaster, and the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened, but some enterprises also had to stop production and business for a few days. It is reported that the demand improved slightly this month, especially under the influence of Rainstorm in the early stage, the influence of Rainstorm in the later stage gradually subsided, the demand became lighter, and the purchase price returned to normal.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the rise of raw material cost has a certain impact on polyacrylamide in the first half of August, especially the sharp rise of acrylic acid price. In the second half of the month, the external influence gradually subsided, the price of acrylic acid slightly corrected, acrylonitrile only rose slightly, the downstream demand was stable, and the market had little impact on the market with sufficient spot. When it comes to the future, if the demand in the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season will improve to a certain extent, the market will continue to be strong; On the contrary, it is mainly stable.

Commodity index: on August 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 95.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.67% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.90% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China showed a steady upward trend in the fourth week of August 2021. On the 23rd, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1741.11 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream price was stable at 1761.11 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: as can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 280.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market of downstream ammonium chloride is high, and the downstream purchase intention is not strong. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a slight shock in the near future.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and rose. On August 23, the mainstream quotation was 5593.33 yuan / ton to 5703.33 yuan / ton. According to the analysis of business society, at present, the cost is supported, the price is not easy to fall sharply, mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the LNG market continues to operate at a high level.

Downstream demand: due to the impact of Rainstorm in the early stage, the logistics transportation is limited, and the downstream demand is blocked. According to the introduction of enterprises in the main production area, the impact is gradually decreasing in the later stage. Except that the price of some raw materials is high due to the tension of shutdown, the road continues to recover. It is reported that at the end of the third week, Gongyi suffered another rainstorm disaster, but the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened. Some areas were shut down for a few days, the degree of disaster was greatly reduced, and the production of local enterprises was not greatly affected. In Shandong and other parts of China, the weather this week has little impact on water treatment enterprises. It is reported that the current demand has not changed significantly, and the purchase price has not changed much.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, in the future, the current market of water treatment industry is greatly affected by the price of raw materials, especially hydrochloric acid and bauxite in some main production areas. When the local high price of raw materials and slightly better downstream demand support polyaluminium chloride well, polyaluminium chloride will continue to rise steadily, otherwise, it will be mainly stable.

Aluminum prices rose 4% in August

According to the data of business agency, on August 27, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20650 yuan / ton, up 4% from 19856.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 31.31%.

In mid August, the aluminum price broke through the 20000 mark and reached new highs.

Power rationing affects production capacity

The proportion of limited production in Yunnan has increased, and Guangxi, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have also entered the ranks of limited production. The investment expectation of new production capacity during the year has been reduced to less than 1.3 million tons. At the end of July, Yunnan Shenhuo announced that the production limit was upgraded from 25% to 30%, and 35 units were forced to stop the tank again, with a total of 145 units stopped, and the operating capacity decreased to 550000 tons. In early August, Yunnan Aluminum was not spared. The shutdown situation was similar to that of Shenhuo. The shutdown ratio of aluminum plant reached 30%, and the operating capacity decreased to 1.87 million tons.

Expected factors: it is difficult to resume production in Guangxi and Yunnan in September. In the second half of 2021, the supply and demand of electricity in flood season is expected to be basically balanced, the supply may be insufficient in some periods, and there is still a gap in electricity and electricity from November to December. At the end of the year, Yunnan entered the dry season again, and the restart cost of electrolytic aluminum cell is high. In order to avoid frequent switching, it is expected that it will be difficult for Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant to resume production on a large scale from September to October.

Rising price of raw alumina & electricity price policy raises the cost expectation of aluminum price

Due to the restrictive power supply in Guangxi, coupled with weather factors, the rainy season lasting for several months affected the mining of open-pit mines in Guangxi, and the ore supply decreased. It is reported that the output of two local alumina plants in Guangxi decreased by 7.2% compared with that before the reduction, with a total reduction of about 1.1 million tons of annual production capacity. The market price of China’s domestic alumina has maintained an upward trend recently, and the market price of alumina has increased slightly. At present, the quotation and transaction focus in the northern market are basically around 2700 yuan / ton. Recently, traders have actively entered the market, and alumina manufacturers are still strongly willing to support prices. Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises mainly execute long orders, and their enthusiasm for spot procurement of alumina is not very high.

The price rise of raw alumina is mainly driven by factors such as coal shortage and power restriction, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise.

On August 27, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on improving the step price policy of electrolytic aluminum industry. It is proposed that the grading and price increase standards of stepped electricity prices will be improved, in which it is clearly prohibited to introduce preferential electricity price policies everywhere. All localities shall strictly implement the national electricity price policy. It is strictly prohibited to implement preferential electricity prices for the electrolytic aluminum industry and organize special transactions in the power market of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Those that have been implemented and organized shall be cancelled immediately. It is strictly prohibited to include the introduction of preferential electricity price policies into the responsibility evaluation and assessment of energy consumption dual control objectives of Provincial People’s governments.

In addition, the NDRC also proposed to encourage electrolytic aluminum enterprises to improve the utilization level of non-aqueous renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation and reduce fossil energy consumption. If the electricity consumption of non-aqueous renewable energy by electrolytic aluminum enterprises accounts for more than 15% of the total electricity consumption and is not less than the incentive value of non hydropower consumption responsibility weight of the province (autonomous region or municipality directly under the central government) in the previous year, the price increase standard of step electricity price will be reduced by 1% for every 1% increase in the proportion.

The aluminum ingot import window was opened, and the downstream aluminum export increased year-on-year

In July 2021, the import of electrolytic aluminum was 179000 tons, an increase of 13.29% month on month. By country, India and Russia imported 105300 tons and 33800 tons respectively, accounting for 59% and 19%. From January to July, domestic imports totaled 921800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 165.86%.

The Shanghai Lun ratio fluctuated and strengthened. The aluminum ingot inventory in Shanghai free trade zone was in the range of 110000-120000 tons, and the port inventory data increased.

In July 2021, the export of unwrought and rolled aluminum and aluminum products was 469000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to July was 3085000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.7%. The demand for foreign aluminum materials is obviously stronger, but the average monthly export volume is expected to remain at the level of 450000 tons, which is mainly restricted by factors such as high sea freight and frequent international trade frictions.

In August, downstream processing enterprises started construction, first restraining and then increasing

In early August, some aluminum processing enterprises in Zhengzhou and Luoyang, Henan Province received a notice from the Power Bureau under their jurisdiction. Large industrial enterprises limited power by 50% according to the situation, and all industrial enterprises below 10kV stopped production, which is expected to last for three weeks or more.

Downstream processing enterprises took the lead in restraining the start-up and then increasing. The start-up rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises fell by 0.6% to 67.8% in the second week of this month. Henan staggered peak power rationing again led to the weakening of the start-up rate. According to the category of aluminum materials, the production of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises is reduced due to insufficient power supply. At the same time, due to the epidemic situation in Zhengzhou, the transportation is blocked, and the willingness of foreign vehicles to go to the epidemic area is very low.

The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.5% to 68.3% in the third week of this month. According to the category of aluminum materials, the high price of aluminum and silicon has a great impact on aluminum profile, primary alloy and cable enterprises. The soaring cost of raw materials compresses the profits of processing enterprises. Relatively speaking, large enterprises do better in orders and risk prevention measures. The impact is relatively small compared with medium and small enterprises, and the order scheduling of aluminum cable enterprises is stable. Power rationing in Henan has eased, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip has rebounded to 80%, and the operating rate of aluminum foil has remained unchanged. With the rise of aluminum price, some aluminum foil factories said they would increase the processing fee again.

The State Reserve sold 70000 tons in the third batch

According to the Announcement No. 2 of the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau in 2021, it is decided to launch the third batch of national reserve aluminum, zinc and copper in 2021 in the near future. The bidding period is 9:00-12:00 and 13:00-18:00 on September 1. If it is necessary to change the time or stop bidding under special circumstances, it will be notified separately.

The total sales volume of the third batch is 70000 tons of aluminum, 50000 tons of zinc and 30000 tons of copper.

Future forecast

In the golden nine silver ten, domestic demand has gradually come out of the off-season, which constitutes a certain demand factor for aluminum price. The cost and power restriction lead to the reduction of production capacity, which is beneficial to the price of aluminum ingots on the supply side and cost side. At present, the aluminum price support is formed, but the basic price is relatively high, the social inventory destocking is weakened, and the market game tends to intensify.

Ye Jianjun, an analyst of business society, expects that the aluminum ingot price will still operate around 20000 yuan / ton in the near future. On the whole, the short-term downward risk will be weakened and the high shock operation will still be maintained.

DOP rose again in price differences

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, DOP prices fell first and then rose this week. Recently, DOP prices have great differences between long and short, and DOP prices have been adjusted in waves. As of August 26, the DOP price was 14750.00 yuan / ton, down 1.01% from the DOP price of 14900.00 yuan / ton on August 20 last weekend; Compared with the DOP price of 15675.00 yuan / ton on August 1, a decrease of 5.90%; Compared with the DOP price of 14925.00 yuan / ton on August 10, it decreased by 1.17%. Since mid August, the cost of DOP raw materials has been divided between long and short, and the price of DOP has been adjusted by shock.

Long and short differences in raw material prices continued

It can be seen from the isooctanol price trend chart that the long and short differences in the isooctanol market continued in August. This week, the isooctanol price fell first and then rose. The DOP cost fluctuated and adjusted. The DOP market profit was around the cost line. In general, the DOP cost decreased in the future, and there was great downward pressure on DOP.

The downstream market rebounded and warmed up

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market fluctuated and rose in August, the PVC price rose again this week, the downstream demand of DOP warmed up, and the upward momentum of DOP increased.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that the long and short differences in DOP raw material isooctanol market continue, the overall isooctanol price drops, DOP costs fall, and the downward pressure on DOP increases. The recovery of downstream PVC market is good for DOP market, but the overall demand for DOP is general, and the rising power of DOP is limited. In the future, the upward momentum of DOP market still exists, and the downward pressure is weakened. It is expected that DOP price will fluctuate slightly.